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BNS The Bank of Nova Scotia

Financial Services

steady quality, fair valuation.

Quality
Above avg
Valuation
Fair
Key signals
52-week adjusted-price high Top-quintile 6-month momentum
93.48
93.48 Close (USD) Loading candles…

Is The Bank of Nova Scotia a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is above average. Operating margin sits near the 71th percentile. TTM ROE is about 11.2%.

  • Valuation is middle-of-pack. TTM P/E is near the 62th percentile.

  • Recent volatility is comparatively low. 60-day annualized volatility is in the 27th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $149.3M.

  • Signals are active now. 52-week adjusted-price high, Top-quintile 6-month momentum currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

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Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

17 historical occurrences (since 2017-01-10)
Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high。20-day: Win 64.7%, Sample 17, Median +1.88%, Excess +0.92%, Beat mkt rate 47.1%；60-day: Win 62.5%, Sample 16, Median +1.55%, Excess -0.34%, Beat mkt rate 37.5%；120-day: Win 53.3%, Sample 15, Median +0.44%, Excess -2.51%, Beat mkt rate 33.3%

120 days after: historical avg -0.31%

20-day +1.58%
60-day +1.88%
120-day -0.31%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
64.7%
62.5%
53.3%
Sample
17
16
15
Median
+1.88%
+1.55%
+0.44%
Excess
+0.92%
-0.34%
-2.51%
Beat mkt rate
47.1%
37.5%
33.3%

Over 15 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 0.31%, lagged the market by 2.51 pts; win rate 53.3%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 82.2429906542056%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

7 historical occurrences (since 2016-07-14)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 83.3%, Sample 6, Median +1.95%, Excess +1.4%, Beat mkt rate 83.3%；60-day: Win 33.3%, Sample 6, Median -4.03%, Excess -1.53%, Beat mkt rate 16.7%；120-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 6, Median +15.03%, Excess +3.96%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%

120 days after: historical avg +4.99%

20-day +1.55%
60-day -4.24%
120-day +4.99%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
83.3%
33.3%
66.7%
Sample
6
6
6
Median
+1.95%
-4.03%
+15.03%
Excess
+1.4%
-1.53%
+3.96%
Beat mkt rate
83.3%
16.7%
66.7%

Over 6 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 4.99%, beat the market by 3.96 pts; win rate 66.7%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 508+13.3% -1.6% 44.5% -11.5%
20-40 259+2.3% +1.8% 54.8% -12.8%
40-60 162-2.4% -2.7% 46.9% -11.1%
60-80 194+23.2% +22.5% 86.1% +9.1%
80-100 You are here371+17.8% +19.2% 64.2% +12.8%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 12.17, placing it in the 94.3 own-history percentile, inside the 80-100 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+10.6%
Win rate 52.5% Excess -1.7%
198d
-5.9%
Win rate 40.3% Excess -9.2%
201d
Now
+9.3%
Win rate 69.7% Excess +4.5%
502d
60-day momentum down
-0.7%
Win rate 46.4% Excess -9.6%
498d
+1.6%
Win rate 73.9% Excess -2.8%
69d
+24%
Win rate 100% Excess +14.5%
146d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 502 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 9.3%, win rate 69.7%, beat the market by 4.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,702 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.12%, a 57.8% positive-return rate, and +2.76 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

14 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.08%, win rate 69.2%, beating the market by +1.52 pts on average.

Continue researching The Bank of Nova Scotia with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.