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ESTC Elastic N.V.

Technology

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

Quality
Weak
Valuation
Expensive
Key signals
Top-quintile 6-month momentum
88.12
88.12 Close (USD) Loading candles…

Is Elastic N.V. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is weaker than peers. Operating margin is only around the 33th percentile. TTM ROE is about 29.0%.

  • Valuation is expensive. TTM P/E is in the 80th percentile, above most peers.

  • Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 68th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $253.2M.

  • Signals are active now. Top-quintile 6-month momentum currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Watchlist

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Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 91.928632115548%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

17 historical occurrences (since 2019-04-09)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 35.3%, Sample 17, Median -3.32%, Excess -1.2%, Beat mkt rate 41.2%；60-day: Win 37.5%, Sample 16, Median -2.57%, Excess -5.61%, Beat mkt rate 31.2%；120-day: Win 43.8%, Sample 16, Median -8.2%, Excess -7.34%, Beat mkt rate 25%

120 days after: historical avg +1.4%

20-day -1.29%
60-day -1.61%
120-day +1.4%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
35.3%
37.5%
43.8%
Sample
17
16
16
Median
-3.32%
-2.57%
-8.2%
Excess
-1.2%
-5.61%
-7.34%
Beat mkt rate
41.2%
31.2%
25%

Over 16 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 1.4%, lagged the market by 7.34 pts; win rate 43.8%.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,702 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.12%, a 57.8% positive-return rate, and +2.76 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

10 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.24%, win rate 33.3%, beating the market by -6.61 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

6 times historically; 60-day forward avg -2.42%, win rate 33.3%, beating the market by -5.43 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

30 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.31%, win rate 48.3%, beating the market by -0.79 pts on average.

Continue researching Elastic N.V. with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.