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FROG JFrog Ltd.

Technology

quality needs a look, discounted valuation.

Quality
Weak
Valuation
Cheaper
Key signals
Top-quintile 6-month momentum Filed revenue acceleration
89.18
89.18 Close (USD) Loading candles…

Is JFrog Ltd. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is weaker than peers. Operating margin is only around the 25th percentile. TTM ROE is about -4.6%.

  • Valuation is cheaper than most peers. TTM P/E is in the 2th percentile, lower than most liquid US common stocks.

  • Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 67th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $171.7M.

  • Signals are active now. Top-quintile 6-month momentum, Filed revenue acceleration currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Watchlist

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Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 94.90229396771453%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

16 historical occurrences (since 2022-10-20)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 68.8%, Sample 16, Median +3.13%, Excess +4.07%, Beat mkt rate 56.2%；60-day: Win 60%, Sample 15, Median +9.19%, Excess +5.6%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%；120-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 12, Median +15.87%, Excess +10.22%, Beat mkt rate 58.3%

120 days after: historical avg +21.23%

20-day +5.57%
60-day +9.89%
120-day +21.23%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
68.8%
60%
66.7%
Sample
16
15
12
Median
+3.13%
+9.19%
+15.87%
Excess
+4.07%
+5.6%
+10.22%
Beat mkt rate
56.2%
66.7%
58.3%

Over 12 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 21.23%, beat the market by 10.22 pts; win rate 66.7%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 26.37137422829592%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

9 historical occurrences (since 2022-02-11)
Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration。20-day: Win 44.4%, Sample 9, Median -0.67%, Excess -0.57%, Beat mkt rate 33.3%；60-day: Win 75%, Sample 8, Median +7.52%, Excess +5.77%, Beat mkt rate 75%；120-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 7, Median +4.68%, Excess +12.93%, Beat mkt rate 71.4%

120 days after: historical avg +17.02%

20-day -0.77%
60-day +7.06%
120-day +17.02%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
44.4%
75%
57.1%
Sample
9
8
7
Median
-0.67%
+7.52%
+4.68%
Excess
-0.57%
+5.77%
+12.93%
Beat mkt rate
33.3%
75%
71.4%

Over 7 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 17.02%, beat the market by 12.93 pts; win rate 57.1%.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,702 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.12%, a 57.8% positive-return rate, and +2.76 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

12 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.46%, win rate 63.6%, beating the market by -2.16 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

20 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.82%, win rate 57.9%, beating the market by +1.92 pts on average.

Continue researching JFrog Ltd. with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.