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META Meta Platforms, Inc.

Communication Services

strong quality, premium valuation.

Quality
Top tier
Valuation
Expensive
Key signals
52-week adjusted-price high Top-quintile 6-month momentum Filed revenue acceleration
751.66
751.66 Close (USD) Loading candles…

Is Meta Platforms, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is top-tier. Operating margin ranks above roughly 88% of the liquid US common-stock universe. TTM ROE is about 26.1%.

  • Valuation is expensive. TTM P/E is in the 82th percentile, above most peers.

  • Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 55th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $15,347.2M.

  • Signals are active now. 52-week adjusted-price high, Top-quintile 6-month momentum, Filed revenue acceleration currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Watchlist

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Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

29 historical occurrences (since 2017-02-08)
Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high。20-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 28, Median +1.79%, Excess -0.3%, Beat mkt rate 53.6%；60-day: Win 67.9%, Sample 28, Median +8.49%, Excess +2.19%, Beat mkt rate 60.7%；120-day: Win 75%, Sample 28, Median +9.44%, Excess +3.28%, Beat mkt rate 60.7%

120 days after: historical avg +9.61%

20-day +0.95%
60-day +5.67%
120-day +9.61%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.1%
67.9%
75%
Sample
28
28
28
Median
+1.79%
+8.49%
+9.44%
Excess
-0.3%
+2.19%
+3.28%
Beat mkt rate
53.6%
60.7%
60.7%

Over 28 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 9.61%, beat the market by 3.28 pts; win rate 75%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 81.98810535259133%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

22 historical occurrences (since 2016-10-20)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 61.9%, Sample 21, Median +2.06%, Excess -0.71%, Beat mkt rate 52.4%；60-day: Win 61.9%, Sample 21, Median +7.27%, Excess +3.14%, Beat mkt rate 57.1%；120-day: Win 76.2%, Sample 21, Median +9.22%, Excess +0.36%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%

120 days after: historical avg +10.25%

20-day +1.77%
60-day +8.06%
120-day +10.25%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
61.9%
61.9%
76.2%
Sample
21
21
21
Median
+2.06%
+7.27%
+9.22%
Excess
-0.71%
+3.14%
+0.36%
Beat mkt rate
52.4%
57.1%
42.9%

Over 21 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 10.25%, beat the market by 0.36 pts; win rate 76.2%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 27.652625220912274%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

13 historical occurrences (since 2018-04-26)
Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration。20-day: Win 69.2%, Sample 13, Median +3.37%, Excess -0.59%, Beat mkt rate 61.5%；60-day: Win 50%, Sample 12, Median -1.3%, Excess -1.43%, Beat mkt rate 41.7%；120-day: Win 45.5%, Sample 11, Median -1.96%, Excess -6.88%, Beat mkt rate 27.3%

120 days after: historical avg +0.82%

20-day +1.49%
60-day +3.03%
120-day +0.82%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
69.2%
50%
45.5%
Sample
13
12
11
Median
+3.37%
-1.3%
-1.96%
Excess
-0.59%
-1.43%
-6.88%
Beat mkt rate
61.5%
41.7%
27.3%

Over 11 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 0.82%, lagged the market by 6.88 pts; win rate 45.5%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 397+40.5% +21.9% 59.7% +35.2%
20-40 414+17.6% +12.4% 60.9% +0.9%
40-60 You are here350+25.5% +26.8% 76.6% +4.6%
60-80 138+40.4% +36.8% 97.1% +18.5%
80-100 103+67.6% +72.1% 100% +43.3%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 28.32, placing it in the 50.3 own-history percentile, inside the 40-60 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+19%
Win rate 64.6% Excess +12.4%
206d
Now
+11.1%
Win rate 69.2% Excess +2.2%
558d
+27.3%
Win rate 94.5% Excess +15.9%
183d
60-day momentum down
+13%
Win rate 52.8% Excess +7.8%
441d
+10.7%
Win rate 59.7% Excess -0.2%
129d
Insufficient data
(5d)

Currently in “Middle × 60-day momentum up”: across 558 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 11.1%, win rate 69.2%, beat the market by 2.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,702 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.12%, a 57.8% positive-return rate, and +2.76 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

36 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.51%, win rate 69.7%, beating the market by +3.45 pts on average.

Continue researching Meta Platforms, Inc. with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.