Filed revenue acceleration
Active · now 11.351103252384265%TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.
MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation
- Quality
- Top tier
- Valuation
- Fair
Key signals
24.11 Close (USD) Loading candles…
Is Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Quality is top-tier. Operating margin ranks above roughly 88% of the liquid US common-stock universe. TTM ROE is about 19.8%.
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Valuation is middle-of-pack. TTM P/E is near the 59th percentile.
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Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 48th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $111.7M.
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Signals are active now. Filed revenue acceleration currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.
Valuation
NeutralFree-cash-flow yield is Top, but Price / book is Pricey.
TTM P/E 10.48
Price / book 2.07
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 11.81
Quality
StrongAll 3 indicators are Top.
ROE, TTM (%) 19.83
Operating margin, TTM (%) 38.03
FCF margin, TTM (%) 35.52
Growth
GoodAll 2 indicators are Good.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 11.35
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 20.42
Momentum
NeutralAll 2 indicators are Good.
60-day return (%) -2.81
240-day return (%) 4.15
Risk / liquidity
Good20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Fair.
20-day dollar volume 111,671,297
60-day annualized volatility (%) 42.54
Watchlist
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Historical evidence
Signals active now
Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.
Valuation regime and forward returns
Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.
0-20 +5.7%
20-40 +8.8%
40-60 +22.5% Now
60-80 -3.3%
80-100 Insufficient data
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 224 | +5.7% | +2.1% | 52.7% | -14% |
| 20-40 | 72 | +8.8% | +9.5% | 87.5% | -17.2% |
| 40-60 You are here | 171 | +22.5% | +20.7% | 94.2% | -0.9% |
| 60-80 | 316 | -3.3% | -6.2% | 35.1% | -17.5% |
| 80-100 | 0 | Insufficient data | |||
Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.
Current TTM P/E is about 10.48, placing it in the 40.2 own-history percentile, inside the 40-60 bucket.
Valuation × momentum analogs
Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
-9.3%
97d
+3%
96d
-2.2%
237d
60-day momentum down
+2.5%
151d
Now
+11.8%
245d
+5.1%
77d
Currently in “Middle × 60-day momentum down”: across 245 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 11.8%, win rate 76.7%, beat the market by 0.3%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Market-wide momentum baseline
Across 98,702 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.12%, a 57.8% positive-return rate, and +2.76 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.
Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).
Signals not active now
Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.
52-week adjusted-price high
PendingAdjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.
11 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.25%, win rate 72.7%, beating the market by +6.89 pts on average.
Top-quintile 6-month momentum
PendingThe stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.
13 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.08%, win rate 53.8%, beating the market by +1.96 pts on average.
EPS surprise beat
PendingReported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.
15 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.62%, win rate 42.9%, beating the market by +2.4 pts on average.
Continue researching Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation with the evidence above.
Continue in Studio ↗Method and limits
- Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
- Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
- Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
- The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
- Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
- Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.
This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.