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MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation

Energy

steady quality, fair valuation.

Quality
Above avg
Valuation
Fair
Key signals
Top-quintile 6-month momentum Filed revenue acceleration
393.52
393.52 Close (USD) Loading candles…

Is Marathon Petroleum Corporation a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is above average. Operating margin sits near the 52th percentile. TTM ROE is about 44.8%.

  • Valuation is middle-of-pack. TTM P/E is near the 65th percentile.

  • Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 39th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $1,236.7M.

  • Signals are active now. Top-quintile 6-month momentum, Filed revenue acceleration currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

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Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 89.54970263381479%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

31 historical occurrences (since 2016-11-04)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 58.1%, Sample 31, Median +1.19%, Excess -2.78%, Beat mkt rate 38.7%；60-day: Win 71%, Sample 31, Median +4.28%, Excess -0.24%, Beat mkt rate 45.2%；120-day: Win 73.3%, Sample 30, Median +11.93%, Excess +2.97%, Beat mkt rate 56.7%

120 days after: historical avg +9.77%

20-day -1.32%
60-day +3.09%
120-day +9.77%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
58.1%
71%
73.3%
Sample
31
31
30
Median
+1.19%
+4.28%
+11.93%
Excess
-2.78%
-0.24%
+2.97%
Beat mkt rate
38.7%
45.2%
56.7%

Over 30 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 9.77%, beat the market by 2.97 pts; win rate 73.3%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 15.262803234501355%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

9 historical occurrences (since 2018-08-06)
Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration。20-day: Win 44.4%, Sample 9, Median -1.71%, Excess +1.84%, Beat mkt rate 44.4%；60-day: Win 37.5%, Sample 8, Median -2.7%, Excess +5.6%, Beat mkt rate 50%；120-day: Win 62.5%, Sample 8, Median +12.15%, Excess +6.86%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +7.38%

20-day +2.21%
60-day +3.92%
120-day +7.38%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
44.4%
37.5%
62.5%
Sample
9
8
8
Median
-1.71%
-2.7%
+12.15%
Excess
+1.84%
+5.6%
+6.86%
Beat mkt rate
44.4%
50%
50%

Over 8 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 7.38%, beat the market by 6.86 pts; win rate 62.5%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 379+59.7% +35.1% 98.7% +36%
20-40 196-5.8% -8.2% 34.2% -20.8%
40-60 You are here83+25.1% +30.9% 69.9% +8.6%
60-80 145+34.2% +27.4% 98.6% +19.7%
80-100 233+70.3% +64.1% 99.6% +67.8%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 13.55, placing it in the 59.5 own-history percentile, inside the 40-60 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+13.7%
Win rate 81.6% Excess +2.7%
304d
Now
+9.1%
Win rate 46.4% Excess +1.5%
125d
+26.7%
Win rate 95.7% Excess +26.2%
324d
60-day momentum down
+78%
Win rate 93.8% Excess +57.2%
146d
+5.6%
Win rate 47.2% Excess -1.2%
178d
+39.7%
Win rate 97.5% Excess +28.9%
79d

Currently in “Middle × 60-day momentum up”: across 125 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 9.1%, win rate 46.4%, beat the market by 1.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,702 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.12%, a 57.8% positive-return rate, and +2.76 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

27 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.92%, win rate 80%, beating the market by +4.71 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

38 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.58%, win rate 67.6%, beating the market by +2.87 pts on average.

Continue researching Marathon Petroleum Corporation with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.