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MRNA Moderna, Inc.

Healthcare

quality needs a look, discounted valuation.

Quality
Weak
Valuation
Cheaper
Key signals
52-week adjusted-price high Top-quintile 6-month momentum
198.88
198.88 Close (USD) Loading candles…

Is Moderna, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is weaker than peers. Operating margin is only around the 11th percentile. TTM ROE is about -46.6%.

  • Valuation is cheaper than most peers. TTM P/E is in the 10th percentile, lower than most liquid US common stocks.

  • Recent volatility is elevated. 60-day annualized volatility is in the 99th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $2,495.6M.

  • Signals are active now. 52-week adjusted-price high, Top-quintile 6-month momentum currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

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Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

13 historical occurrences (since 2020-02-26)
Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high。20-day: Win 33.3%, Sample 12, Median -3.11%, Excess +2.5%, Beat mkt rate 25%；60-day: Win 72.7%, Sample 11, Median +46.61%, Excess +43.99%, Beat mkt rate 63.6%；120-day: Win 90%, Sample 10, Median +49.99%, Excess +46.86%, Beat mkt rate 90%

120 days after: historical avg +59.67%

20-day +2.47%
60-day +50.19%
120-day +59.67%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
33.3%
72.7%
90%
Sample
12
11
10
Median
-3.11%
+46.61%
+49.99%
Excess
+2.5%
+43.99%
+46.86%
Beat mkt rate
25%
63.6%
90%

Over 10 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 59.67%, beat the market by 46.86 pts; win rate 90%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 99.74511469838573%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

12 historical occurrences (since 2019-12-18)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 75%, Sample 12, Median +12.38%, Excess +24.21%, Beat mkt rate 75%；60-day: Win 81.8%, Sample 11, Median +21.76%, Excess +36.45%, Beat mkt rate 81.8%；120-day: Win 72.7%, Sample 11, Median +37.08%, Excess +58.95%, Beat mkt rate 72.7%

120 days after: historical avg +67.29%

20-day +26.43%
60-day +38.04%
120-day +67.29%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
75%
81.8%
72.7%
Sample
12
11
11
Median
+12.38%
+21.76%
+37.08%
Excess
+24.21%
+36.45%
+58.95%
Beat mkt rate
75%
81.8%
72.7%

Over 11 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 67.29%, beat the market by 58.95 pts; win rate 72.7%.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,702 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.12%, a 57.8% positive-return rate, and +2.76 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

20 times historically; 60-day forward avg +17.57%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +14.39 pts on average.

Continue researching Moderna, Inc. with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.