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MSFT Microsoft Corporation

Technology

strong quality, premium valuation.

Quality
Top tier
Valuation
Expensive
Key signals
Top-quintile 6-month momentum
516.17
516.17 Close (USD) Loading candles…

Is Microsoft Corporation a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is top-tier. Operating margin ranks above roughly 91% of the liquid US common-stock universe. TTM ROE is about 30.2%.

  • Valuation is expensive. TTM P/E is in the 82th percentile, above most peers.

  • Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 46th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $10,716.5M.

  • Signals are active now. Top-quintile 6-month momentum currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Watchlist

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Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 84.62192013593884%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

25 historical occurrences (since 2016-10-24)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 56.5%, Sample 23, Median +2.11%, Excess +1.21%, Beat mkt rate 52.2%；60-day: Win 78.3%, Sample 23, Median +5.14%, Excess +2.9%, Beat mkt rate 73.9%；120-day: Win 82.6%, Sample 23, Median +11.25%, Excess +6.33%, Beat mkt rate 69.6%

120 days after: historical avg +10.64%

20-day +2.22%
60-day +5.59%
120-day +10.64%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
56.5%
78.3%
82.6%
Sample
23
23
23
Median
+2.11%
+5.14%
+11.25%
Excess
+1.21%
+2.9%
+6.33%
Beat mkt rate
52.2%
73.9%
69.6%

Over 23 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 10.64%, beat the market by 6.33 pts; win rate 82.6%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 130+43.5% +42.5% 100% +24.5%
20-40 You are here125+39.7% +49% 98.4% +24.8%
40-60 299+17.6% +16.8% 71.2% +5%
60-80 878+17.7% +22% 75.6% +2.2%
80-100 134-4.5% -4.5% 40.3% -19.8%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 28.76, placing it in the 36.4 own-history percentile, inside the 20-40 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+27.8%
Win rate 93% Excess +20.4%
57d
Now
+17.1%
Win rate 89% Excess +11.7%
319d
+5.1%
Win rate 67.9% Excess -2.5%
742d
60-day momentum down
+18.5%
Win rate 73.7% Excess +9.4%
190d
+4.6%
Win rate 44.6% Excess -0.9%
314d
+6.1%
Win rate 62.5% Excess -5.4%
64d

Currently in “Middle × 60-day momentum up”: across 319 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 17.1%, win rate 89%, beat the market by 11.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,702 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.12%, a 57.8% positive-return rate, and +2.76 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

31 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.48%, win rate 77.4%, beating the market by +2.39 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

20 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.1%, win rate 70%, beating the market by +0.07 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

36 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.89%, win rate 77.4%, beating the market by +1.84 pts on average.

Continue researching Microsoft Corporation with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.