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MXL MaxLinear, Inc.

Technology

quality needs a look, discounted valuation.

Quality
Weak
Valuation
Cheaper
Key signals
Top-quintile 6-month momentum Filed revenue acceleration
93.84
93.84 Close (USD) Loading candles…

Is MaxLinear, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is weaker than peers. Operating margin is only around the 25th percentile. TTM ROE is about -21.4%.

  • Valuation is cheaper than most peers. TTM P/E is in the 4th percentile, lower than most liquid US common stocks.

  • Recent volatility is elevated. 60-day annualized volatility is in the 90th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $207.7M.

  • Signals are active now. Top-quintile 6-month momentum, Filed revenue acceleration currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

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Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 100%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

17 historical occurrences (since 2016-07-05)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 52.9%, Sample 17, Median +3.23%, Excess +22.91%, Beat mkt rate 52.9%；60-day: Win 58.8%, Sample 17, Median +9.08%, Excess +24.12%, Beat mkt rate 52.9%；120-day: Win 68.8%, Sample 16, Median +20.14%, Excess +33.98%, Beat mkt rate 68.8%

120 days after: historical avg +41.06%

20-day +25.3%
60-day +27.59%
120-day +41.06%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
52.9%
58.8%
68.8%
Sample
17
17
16
Median
+3.23%
+9.08%
+20.14%
Excess
+22.91%
+24.12%
+33.98%
Beat mkt rate
52.9%
52.9%
68.8%

Over 16 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 41.06%, beat the market by 33.98 pts; win rate 68.8%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 50.504609605438944%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

7 historical occurrences (since 2018-05-09)
Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration。20-day: Win 42.9%, Sample 7, Median -2.63%, Excess +23.25%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%；60-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 6, Median +16.57%, Excess +50.78%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%；120-day: Win 80%, Sample 5, Median +37.01%, Excess +88.51%, Beat mkt rate 80%

120 days after: historical avg +94.09%

20-day +25.02%
60-day +55.73%
120-day +94.09%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
42.9%
66.7%
80%
Sample
7
6
5
Median
-2.63%
+16.57%
+37.01%
Excess
+23.25%
+50.78%
+88.51%
Beat mkt rate
42.9%
66.7%
80%

Over 5 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 94.09%, beat the market by 88.51 pts; win rate 80%.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,702 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.12%, a 57.8% positive-return rate, and +2.76 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

13 times historically; 60-day forward avg +23.48%, win rate 46.2%, beating the market by +20.01 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

28 times historically; 60-day forward avg +14.45%, win rate 58.3%, beating the market by +11.94 pts on average.

Continue researching MaxLinear, Inc. with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.