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OKTA Okta, Inc.

Technology

steady quality, premium valuation.

Quality
Above avg
Valuation
Expensive
Key signals
52-week adjusted-price high Top-quintile 6-month momentum
195.19
195.19 Close (USD) Loading candles…

Is Okta, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is above average. Operating margin sits near the 51th percentile. TTM ROE is about 4.2%.

  • Valuation is expensive. TTM P/E is in the 97th percentile, above most peers.

  • Recent volatility is elevated. 60-day annualized volatility is in the 78th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $756.5M.

  • Signals are active now. 52-week adjusted-price high, Top-quintile 6-month momentum currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

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Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

19 historical occurrences (since 2018-04-23)
Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high。20-day: Win 47.4%, Sample 19, Median -0.03%, Excess +0.71%, Beat mkt rate 42.1%；60-day: Win 61.1%, Sample 18, Median +3.61%, Excess +3.42%, Beat mkt rate 55.6%；120-day: Win 56.2%, Sample 16, Median +13.51%, Excess +3%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +14.11%

20-day +2.15%
60-day +8.3%
120-day +14.11%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
47.4%
61.1%
56.2%
Sample
19
18
16
Median
-0.03%
+3.61%
+13.51%
Excess
+0.71%
+3.42%
+3%
Beat mkt rate
42.1%
55.6%
50%

Over 16 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 14.11%, beat the market by 3 pts; win rate 56.2%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 98.04587935429056%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

20 historical occurrences (since 2017-11-08)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 45%, Sample 20, Median -0.36%, Excess +2.78%, Beat mkt rate 50%；60-day: Win 75%, Sample 20, Median +9.48%, Excess +11.61%, Beat mkt rate 60%；120-day: Win 55.6%, Sample 18, Median +3.98%, Excess +9.4%, Beat mkt rate 44.4%

120 days after: historical avg +17.88%

20-day +3.18%
60-day +16.31%
120-day +17.88%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
45%
75%
55.6%
Sample
20
20
18
Median
-0.36%
+9.48%
+3.98%
Excess
+2.78%
+11.61%
+9.4%
Beat mkt rate
50%
60%
44.4%

Over 18 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 17.88%, beat the market by 9.4 pts; win rate 55.6%.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,702 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.12%, a 57.8% positive-return rate, and +2.76 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

36 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.23%, win rate 58.8%, beating the market by +4.27 pts on average.

Continue researching Okta, Inc. with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.