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SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc.

Technology

steady quality, fair valuation.

Quality
Above avg
Valuation
Fair
Key signals
Top-quintile 6-month momentum Filed revenue acceleration
43.26
43.26 Close (USD) Loading candles…

Is Super Micro Computer, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is above average. Operating margin sits near the 50th percentile. TTM ROE is about 15.4%.

  • Valuation is middle-of-pack. TTM P/E is near the 64th percentile.

  • Recent volatility is elevated. 60-day annualized volatility is in the 82th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $1,485.0M.

  • Signals are active now. Top-quintile 6-month momentum, Filed revenue acceleration currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Watchlist

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Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 95.32710280373831%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

21 historical occurrences (since 2017-01-18)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 75%, Sample 20, Median +4.14%, Excess +7.38%, Beat mkt rate 65%；60-day: Win 60%, Sample 20, Median +1.74%, Excess +21.95%, Beat mkt rate 55%；120-day: Win 63.2%, Sample 19, Median +19.74%, Excess +24.76%, Beat mkt rate 57.9%

120 days after: historical avg +30.62%

20-day +9.96%
60-day +24.14%
120-day +30.62%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
75%
60%
63.2%
Sample
20
20
19
Median
+4.14%
+1.74%
+19.74%
Excess
+7.38%
+21.95%
+24.76%
Beat mkt rate
65%
55%
57.9%

Over 19 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 30.62%, beat the market by 24.76 pts; win rate 63.2%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 77.78535103837869%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

18 historical occurrences (since 2017-10-02)
Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration。20-day: Win 52.9%, Sample 17, Median +5.76%, Excess +3.88%, Beat mkt rate 52.9%；60-day: Win 41.2%, Sample 17, Median -8.54%, Excess -1.45%, Beat mkt rate 35.3%；120-day: Win 62.5%, Sample 16, Median +17.49%, Excess +17.66%, Beat mkt rate 62.5%

120 days after: historical avg +20.74%

20-day +4.29%
60-day -0.49%
120-day +20.74%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
52.9%
41.2%
62.5%
Sample
17
17
16
Median
+5.76%
-8.54%
+17.49%
Excess
+3.88%
-1.45%
+17.66%
Beat mkt rate
52.9%
35.3%
62.5%

Over 16 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 20.74%, beat the market by 17.66 pts; win rate 62.5%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here288+342.1% +292.9% 99.7% +319.9%
20-40 237+78.1% +37.2% 92.4% +64.7%
40-60 235+51.5% +30.1% 85.1% +37.1%
60-80 215+59.2% +37.7% 86.5% +51.2%
80-100 562+17.5% -5.1% 46.6% +2.1%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 13.27, placing it in the 13.2 own-history percentile, inside the 0-20 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
Now
+100.5%
Win rate 98.3% Excess +95.7%
288d
+18.4%
Win rate 85.8% Excess +13.9%
254d
+24.4%
Win rate 54.4% Excess +16.5%
544d
60-day momentum down
+47%
Win rate 95.4% Excess +36.4%
131d
+37.6%
Win rate 93.8% Excess +31.4%
144d
+14.6%
Win rate 43.9% Excess +6%
296d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 288 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 100.5%, win rate 98.3%, beat the market by 95.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,702 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.12%, a 57.8% positive-return rate, and +2.76 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

15 times historically; 60-day forward avg +16.52%, win rate 46.7%, beating the market by +17.71 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

18 times historically; 60-day forward avg +14.82%, win rate 68.8%, beating the market by +11.48 pts on average.

Continue researching Super Micro Computer, Inc. with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.