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TEAM Atlassian Corporation

Technology

quality needs a look, discounted valuation.

Quality
Weak
Valuation
Cheaper
Key signals
52-week adjusted-price high Top-quintile 6-month momentum Filed revenue acceleration
187.74
187.74 Close (USD) Loading candles…

Is Atlassian Corporation a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is weaker than peers. Operating margin is only around the 36th percentile. TTM ROE is about -5.1%.

  • Valuation is cheaper than most peers. TTM P/E is in the 0th percentile, lower than most liquid US common stocks.

  • Recent volatility is elevated. 60-day annualized volatility is in the 84th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $637.4M.

  • Signals are active now. 52-week adjusted-price high, Top-quintile 6-month momentum, Filed revenue acceleration currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

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Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

26 historical occurrences (since 2017-04-24)
Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high。20-day: Win 46.2%, Sample 26, Median -0.38%, Excess +1.22%, Beat mkt rate 46.2%；60-day: Win 76%, Sample 25, Median +9.8%, Excess +4.35%, Beat mkt rate 68%；120-day: Win 76%, Sample 25, Median +17.92%, Excess +5.86%, Beat mkt rate 60%

120 days after: historical avg +13.42%

20-day +1.74%
60-day +7.58%
120-day +13.42%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
46.2%
76%
76%
Sample
26
25
25
Median
-0.38%
+9.8%
+17.92%
Excess
+1.22%
+4.35%
+5.86%
Beat mkt rate
46.2%
68%
60%

Over 25 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 13.42%, beat the market by 5.86 pts; win rate 76%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 98.64061172472387%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

23 historical occurrences (since 2016-07-28)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 60.9%, Sample 23, Median +3.23%, Excess +2.12%, Beat mkt rate 60.9%；60-day: Win 59.1%, Sample 22, Median +9.63%, Excess +4.33%, Beat mkt rate 54.5%；120-day: Win 63.6%, Sample 22, Median +6.44%, Excess +2.47%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +9.85%

20-day +2.63%
60-day +8.48%
120-day +9.85%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
60.9%
59.1%
63.6%
Sample
23
22
22
Median
+3.23%
+9.63%
+6.44%
Excess
+2.12%
+4.33%
+2.47%
Beat mkt rate
60.9%
54.5%
50%

Over 22 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 9.85%, beat the market by 2.47 pts; win rate 63.6%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 26.019652929148517%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

14 historical occurrences (since 2017-10-19)
Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration。20-day: Win 50%, Sample 14, Median +0.58%, Excess +5.99%, Beat mkt rate 50%；60-day: Win 46.2%, Sample 13, Median -2.5%, Excess +2.69%, Beat mkt rate 46.2%；120-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 12, Median +8.32%, Excess +2.76%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +5.09%

20-day +6.24%
60-day +3.37%
120-day +5.09%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
46.2%
66.7%
Sample
14
13
12
Median
+0.58%
-2.5%
+8.32%
Excess
+5.99%
+2.69%
+2.76%
Beat mkt rate
50%
46.2%
50%

Over 12 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.09%, beat the market by 2.76 pts; win rate 66.7%.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,702 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.12%, a 57.8% positive-return rate, and +2.76 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

39 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.12%, win rate 63.2%, beating the market by +1.5 pts on average.

Continue researching Atlassian Corporation with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.