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TWLO Twilio Inc.

Technology

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

Quality
Weak
Valuation
Expensive
Key signals
52-week adjusted-price high Top-quintile 6-month momentum Filed revenue acceleration
275.80
275.8 Close (USD) Loading candles…

Is Twilio Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is weaker than peers. Operating margin is only around the 47th percentile. TTM ROE is about 12.8%.

  • Valuation is expensive. TTM P/E is in the 87th percentile, above most peers.

  • Recent volatility is elevated. 60-day annualized volatility is in the 72th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $592.9M.

  • Signals are active now. 52-week adjusted-price high, Top-quintile 6-month momentum, Filed revenue acceleration currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Watchlist

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Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

22 historical occurrences (since 2018-02-27)
Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high。20-day: Win 61.9%, Sample 21, Median +6.95%, Excess +5.64%, Beat mkt rate 61.9%；60-day: Win 75%, Sample 20, Median +9.77%, Excess +13.07%, Beat mkt rate 70%；120-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 18, Median +27.34%, Excess +17.54%, Beat mkt rate 55.6%

120 days after: historical avg +25.39%

20-day +6.55%
60-day +16.78%
120-day +25.39%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
61.9%
75%
66.7%
Sample
21
20
18
Median
+6.95%
+9.77%
+27.34%
Excess
+5.64%
+13.07%
+17.54%
Beat mkt rate
61.9%
70%
55.6%

Over 18 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 25.39%, beat the market by 17.54 pts; win rate 66.7%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 96.51656754460492%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

14 historical occurrences (since 2017-10-31)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 14, Median +13.75%, Excess +9.1%, Beat mkt rate 64.3%；60-day: Win 64.3%, Sample 14, Median +31.12%, Excess +22.83%, Beat mkt rate 64.3%；120-day: Win 61.5%, Sample 13, Median +7.6%, Excess +33.87%, Beat mkt rate 46.2%

120 days after: historical avg +44.93%

20-day +11.66%
60-day +29.93%
120-day +44.93%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.1%
64.3%
61.5%
Sample
14
14
13
Median
+13.75%
+31.12%
+7.6%
Excess
+9.1%
+22.83%
+33.87%
Beat mkt rate
64.3%
64.3%
46.2%

Over 13 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 44.93%, beat the market by 33.87 pts; win rate 61.5%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 17.82384637960388%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

16 historical occurrences (since 2018-05-10)
Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration。20-day: Win 62.5%, Sample 16, Median +3.24%, Excess +2.33%, Beat mkt rate 68.8%；60-day: Win 60%, Sample 15, Median +3.74%, Excess +5.05%, Beat mkt rate 60%；120-day: Win 64.3%, Sample 14, Median +9.98%, Excess +5.59%, Beat mkt rate 64.3%

120 days after: historical avg +9.99%

20-day +2.97%
60-day +7.65%
120-day +9.99%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
62.5%
60%
64.3%
Sample
16
15
14
Median
+3.24%
+3.74%
+9.98%
Excess
+2.33%
+5.05%
+5.59%
Beat mkt rate
68.8%
60%
64.3%

Over 14 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 9.99%, beat the market by 5.59 pts; win rate 64.3%.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,702 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.12%, a 57.8% positive-return rate, and +2.76 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

34 times historically; 60-day forward avg +14.56%, win rate 57.6%, beating the market by +11 pts on average.

Continue researching Twilio Inc. with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.