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00673R

期元大S&P原油反1 Leveraged Futures ETF As of 2026-07-29 Updated daily after market close

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估值 50品質 50成長 50動能 42籌碼 32

Price and fund-flow snapshot

  • 外資近期偏賣。外資近 20 日買賣超約佔成交量 -1.8%（賣超）。

Chip flow

Bullish +0.88
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 群益金鼎 holds 23,136 lots
  • sellers have 25,194 lots left, ~221 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -46% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 群益金鼎 has accumulated 23,136 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 國泰-敦南 peaked at 17,862 lots, has sold 33%, 11,917 left, ~65 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +8.20pp, mid holders +205, retail -12.80pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,329 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
群益金鼎新光大昌-桃園元大-淡水元大-台中中港新光-台中
Distributing
國泰-敦南富邦-南京國泰-板橋凱基-台北元大-花蓮玉山證券
Desks
own scale
元大證券永豐金證券台新統一
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 群益金鼎 +23,136
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 新光 +11,872
    sold 24%
  • 大昌-桃園 +6,742
    sold 19%
  • 元大-淡水 +6,551
    sold 7%
  • 元大-台中中港 +5,871
    sold 0%
  • 新光-台中 +5,473
    sold 15%

Distributing

  • 國泰-敦南 11,917 left
    sold 33%· ~65 sessions to clear
  • 富邦-南京 3,020 left
    sold 51%· ~9 sessions to clear
  • 國泰-板橋 2,099 left
    sold 56%· ~9 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-台北 1,470 left
    sold 64%· ~45 sessions to clear
  • 元大-花蓮 1,578 left
    sold 44%· ~64 sessions to clear
  • 玉山證券 468 left
    sold 83%· paused recently

Desks

  • 元大證券 -281,398
    unclassified
  • 永豐金證券 -27,793
    unclassified
  • 台新 -27,558
    unclassified
  • 統一 -21,699
    unclassified
Still selling 25,194 lots ~221 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +82,110 absorbed / -13,955 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

這個訊號在全市場是否站得住腳

「月營收年增率 ≥ 20%」過去 243 個月，每月平均約 404 檔個股符合條件；這些個股之後 60 個交易日的還原股價報酬，等權平均為 6.99%，平均贏過大盤 2.32 個百分點，在 64.2% 的月份中跑贏發行量加權股價報酬指數。

每月對全市場符合訊號的股票取等權平均前瞻 60 日還原報酬，再對月份平均；超額相對發行量加權股價報酬指數

目前未成立的訊號（歷史統計供參）

這些訊號現在沒有發生，列出歷史樣本以供對照

股價創 252 日新高（突破日）

Pending

還原股價首次站上過去 252 個交易日最高；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

外資連續買超滿 5 個交易日

Pending

外資（不含自營商）買賣超連續 5 日為正，事件日為第 5 日；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

14 times historically; 60-day forward avg -7.53%, win rate 28.6%, beating the market by -12.3 pts on average.

What is 期元大S&P原油反1? Tracked index, holdings and distributions

ETF／期貨信託基金(原油期貨槓桿反向型ETF) 上市(臺灣證券交易所 TWSE)

Overview

本檔為元大證券投資信託股份有限公司(元大投信)發行與經理的期貨信託ETF,非營運公司。基金全名為「元大標普油金傘型期貨信託基金之元大標普高盛原油ER單日反向1倍指數股票型期貨信託基金」,屬傘型期貨信託基金下的子基金。基金成立日為2016年9月30日,於2016年10月7日在臺灣證券交易所掛牌上市(掛牌參考價約新台幣19.78元)。經理人為洪佑銘。經理費約1.00%/年,保管費約0.15%/年。截至2026年6月15日基金規模約新台幣93億元(約9,308百萬元)。風險屬性標示為高波動度,屬主動策略交易型工具,需符合臺灣證券交易所相關資格(如具槓桿/反向ETF交易權限)之投資人方可交易。

Business

本ETF追蹤「標普高盛原油日報酬反向一倍ER指數」(S&P GSCI Crude Oil 1x Inverse Index ER),透過投資紐約商業交易所(NYMEX)西德州輕原油(WTI)期貨契約並建立空方/反向部位,以追求標的原油指數「單日」反向1倍(-1x)之報酬;即原油期貨價格下跌時,本基金單日淨值原則上上漲,反之則下跌。基金每日進行曝險部位再平衡(每日重設),因複利與正逆價差(轉倉成本)效應,長期累積報酬會偏離原油標的之單純反向倍數,設計上不適合長期持有,適合短線策略或避險用途。配息政策為不進行收益分配(不配息)。計價幣別為新台幣。

Outlook 2025–2028

本檔為反向型原油期貨ETF,本身無營運成長動能,績效高度取決於國際原油(WTI)價格走勢、波動度與期貨正/逆價差(轉倉成本):當油價走跌或投資人欲對沖持有原油部位、避險原油上漲風險時需求上升。2025–2028年影響油價的變數包括OPEC+減產/增產政策、地緣政治(中東、俄烏)、美國頁岩油供給、全球景氣與能源需求、能源轉型趨勢等,方向高度不確定。主要風險與挑戰:(1)每日重設造成的路徑依賴/複利耗損,長期持有可能侵蝕報酬;(2)原油期貨長期多呈正價差(contango)時,反向部位轉倉相對有利但仍受波動拖累;(3)油價單日大漲將造成顯著虧損;(4)若淨值過低或規模不足恐面臨下市/清算風險。屬高風險工具,適合具經驗投資人短期操作。

Sources（7）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

方法與限制

  • 所有報酬以還原股價（etl:adj_close）計算，已還原除權息與股票分割。
  • 超額報酬以發行量加權股價報酬指數（含息）為基準。
  • 估值位階與分位統計以「截至當天為止的自身歷史」滾動計算，不使用未來資訊。
  • 營收訊號的事件日對齊到公告截止日後第一個交易日，避免提前用到尚未公開的資訊。
  • 事件樣本之間日期可能重疊，統計僅描述歷史分布，樣本數較少時參考價值有限。

本頁內容為歷史資料統計與教育用途，不構成投資建議。投資一定有風險，過去績效不代表未來表現，交易前請自行評估並承擔風險。