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00693U

期街口S&P黃豆 Futures ETF As of 2026-07-29 Updated daily after market close

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估值 50品質 50成長 50動能 59籌碼 80

Price and fund-flow snapshot

  • 外資近期偏買。外資近 20 日買賣超約佔成交量 6.4%（買超）。

Chip flow

Bullish +0.83
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 國票證券 holds 7,219 lots
  • sellers have 1,042 lots left, ~83 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +4% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 國票證券 has accumulated 7,219 lots since the start (sold 1%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 康和 peaked at 772 lots, has sold 31%, 536 left, ~28 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +7.06pp, mid holders -2, retail -3.26pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -717 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
國票證券元大證券凱基-台北京城-嘉義永豐金-古亭富邦-仁愛
Distributing
康和群益金鼎-萬華富邦-建國群益金鼎台新證券玉山證券
Desks
own scale
元富凱基元富-成功新光-新竹
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 國票證券 +7,219
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 元大證券 +4,984
    sold 5%· still adding
  • 凱基-台北 +2,568
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 京城-嘉義 +1,199
    sold 0%
  • 永豐金-古亭 +432
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-仁愛 +426
    sold 12%

Distributing

  • 康和 536 left
    sold 31%· ~28 sessions to clear
  • 群益金鼎-萬華 475 left
    sold 35%· paused recently
  • 富邦-建國 322 left
    sold 31%· paused recently
  • 群益金鼎 169 left
    sold 63%· ~11 sessions to clear
  • 台新證券 112 left
    sold 72%· paused recently
  • 玉山證券 266 left
    sold 26%· paused recently

Desks

  • 元富 -2,256
    unclassified
  • 凱基 -1,160
    unclassified
  • 元富-成功 -927
    unclassified
  • 新光-新竹 -744
    unclassified
Still selling 1,042 lots ~83 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,593 absorbed / -713 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

這個訊號在全市場是否站得住腳

「月營收年增率 ≥ 20%」過去 243 個月，每月平均約 404 檔個股符合條件；這些個股之後 60 個交易日的還原股價報酬，等權平均為 6.99%，平均贏過大盤 2.32 個百分點，在 64.2% 的月份中跑贏發行量加權股價報酬指數。

每月對全市場符合訊號的股票取等權平均前瞻 60 日還原報酬，再對月份平均；超額相對發行量加權股價報酬指數

目前未成立的訊號（歷史統計供參）

這些訊號現在沒有發生，列出歷史樣本以供對照

股價創 252 日新高（突破日）

Pending

還原股價首次站上過去 252 個交易日最高；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

10 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.65%, win rate 40%, beating the market by -5.69 pts on average.

外資連續買超滿 5 個交易日

Pending

外資（不含自營商）買賣超連續 5 日為正，事件日為第 5 日；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

30 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.66%, win rate 44.8%, beating the market by -3.18 pts on average.

What is 期街口S&P黃豆? Tracked index, holdings and distributions

期貨信託ETF(商品型/農產品-黃豆) 台灣證券交易所(TWSE)上市

Overview

本商品為「街口標普高盛黃豆ER指數股票型期貨信託基金」,證券簡稱「期街口S&P黃豆」,代號00693U,為一檔商品期貨信託ETF(代號帶U字尾即台股慣例之期貨ETF/期信ETF)。發行機構為街口證券投資信託股份有限公司(街口投信,JKO Asset Management/JKO Investment Trust)。基金成立日約為2017年4月17日,於2017年4月25日在台灣證券交易所掛牌上市;計價幣別為新台幣。基金經理人為鍾元怡,基金保管機構為彰化商業銀行。經理費約為每年1%,保管費另計(費率以公開說明書揭露為準)。基金規模約為新台幣21~23億元(不同揭露日略有差異,如2026/5/31約21.15億元、2026/4初約21.76~23.36億元)。配息政策方面,該基金未設定定期配息(尚無配息紀錄)。因屬期貨信託ETF,當基金淨值或規模持續低於主管機關/契約門檻時,有暫停交易、清算下市之風險。

Business

本ETF採指數化策略,以追蹤「標普高盛黃豆ER指數(S&P GSCI Soybeans Excess Return Index)」之績效表現為目標。其投資標的並非黃豆現貨或營運公司股票,而是在美國芝加哥期貨交易所(CBOT,隸屬CME集團)掛牌交易的黃豆期貨契約(Soybean Futures);基金主要持有近月黃豆期貨並依指數規則定期進行轉倉(roll over),以複製國際黃豆價格之漲跌趨勢,投資區域為美國商品期貨市場。投資人可透過此ETF以新台幣參與黃豆(大豆)此一農產品原物料價格波動,常見用途包括資產配置中的原物料/農產品曝險、通膨對沖與分散股債相關性。由於採用『超額報酬(Excess Return)』型指數並以期貨複製,實際報酬會受到期貨轉倉成本(逆價差/正價差,即backwardation/contango)、管理費用與追蹤誤差影響,長期表現可能偏離黃豆現貨價格。

Outlook 2025–2028

黃豆價格(連帶本ETF淨值)主要受全球供需與總體因素驅動,2025~2028年可關注的動能與變數包括:(1)供給面—美國、巴西、阿根廷三大主產區的種植面積、單產與天候(聖嬰/反聖嬰現象、乾旱),南美豐收與否對全球庫存影響極大;(2)需求面—中國為全球最大黃豆進口國,其壓榨(豆粕飼料)需求與採購政策、以及全球生質柴油/可再生柴油對黃豆油的需求成長,為長線需求支撐;(3)地緣與貿易—美中貿易關係、關稅與南美出口競爭,可能造成貿易流向與價格劇烈波動;(4)總體—美元走勢、運費、能源價格與通膨環境。潛在風險與挑戰:期貨轉倉成本在正價差(contango)時將持續侵蝕報酬;商品價格高波動;相對偏高的經理費(約1%)且無配息收益;次級市場可能出現折溢價;若基金規模/淨值過低恐面臨清算下市風險。整體而言屬於波動度較高、適合具原物料投資知識且短中期波段操作或作為配置工具的投資人,不適合長期買進持有以求複利配息的投資人。本段為依產業趨勢所做之展望分析,非保證,屬推估性質。

Sources（9）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

方法與限制

  • 所有報酬以還原股價（etl:adj_close）計算，已還原除權息與股票分割。
  • 超額報酬以發行量加權股價報酬指數（含息）為基準。
  • 估值位階與分位統計以「截至當天為止的自身歷史」滾動計算，不使用未來資訊。
  • 營收訊號的事件日對齊到公告截止日後第一個交易日，避免提前用到尚未公開的資訊。
  • 事件樣本之間日期可能重疊，統計僅描述歷史分布，樣本數較少時參考價值有限。

本頁內容為歷史資料統計與教育用途，不構成投資建議。投資一定有風險，過去績效不代表未來表現，交易前請自行評估並承擔風險。