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00857B

永豐20年美公債 Other Securities As of 2026-07-29 Updated daily after market close

1 signal active.

1 active signal
外資連買5日
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估值 50品質 50成長 50動能 61籌碼 100

Is 永豐20年美公債 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • 外資近期偏買。外資近 20 日買賣超約佔成交量 39.5%（買超）。

Chip flow

Bullish +1.00
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 凱基-台北 holds 118,936 lots
  • sellers have 55 lots left, ~8 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price 0% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 凱基-台北 has accumulated 118,936 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 新光-台中 peaked at 633 lots, has sold 57%, 275 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +12.93pp, mid holders -16, retail -12.14pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -9,364 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
凱基-台北群益金鼎元大證券富邦證券美商高盛第一金-忠孝
Distributing
新光-台中元富元大-大雅元大-成功群益金鼎-宜蘭國泰-忠孝
Desks
own scale
元大-敦化台新國泰-敦南永豐金證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 凱基-台北 +118,936
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 群益金鼎 +7,207
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 元大證券 +6,023
    sold 17%· still adding
  • 富邦證券 +1,299
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美商高盛 +1,050
    sold 0%
  • 第一金-忠孝 +664
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 新光-台中 275 left
    sold 57%· paused recently
  • 元富 92 left
    sold 37%· paused recently
  • 元大-大雅 55 left
    sold 61%· ~8 sessions to clear
  • 元大-成功 58 left
    sold 38%· paused recently
  • 群益金鼎-宜蘭 42 left
    sold 26%· paused recently
  • 國泰-忠孝 26 left
    sold 42%· paused recently

Desks

  • 元大-敦化 -6,106
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 台新 -3,093
    unclassified
  • 國泰-敦南 -2,936
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 永豐金證券 -1,996
    unclassified
Still selling 55 lots ~8 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +16,225 absorbed / -69 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

目前正在發生的訊號

以下訊號在最近一筆資料中成立，附這檔股票自身歷史上每次出現後的前瞻報酬統計

外資連續買超滿 5 個交易日

Active · now 13%

外資（不含自營商）買賣超連續 5 日為正，事件日為第 5 日；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

17 historical occurrences (since 2024-03-01)
Average forward return after 外資連續買超滿 5 個交易日。20-day: Win 64.7%, Sample 17, Median +0.96%, Excess -2.53%, Beat mkt rate 35.3%；60-day: Win 60%, Sample 15, Median +0.51%, Excess -10.57%, Beat mkt rate 33.3%；120-day: Win 50%, Sample 12, Median -0.81%, Excess -18.2%, Beat mkt rate 8.3%

120 days after: historical avg -0.35%

20-day +0.13%
60-day -0.03%
120-day -0.35%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
64.7%
60%
50%
Sample
17
15
12
Median
+0.96%
+0.51%
-0.81%
Excess
-2.53%
-10.57%
-18.2%
Beat mkt rate
35.3%
33.3%
8.3%

Over 12 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 0.35%, lagged the market by 18.2 pts; win rate 50%.

這個訊號在全市場是否站得住腳

「月營收年增率 ≥ 20%」過去 243 個月，每月平均約 404 檔個股符合條件；這些個股之後 60 個交易日的還原股價報酬，等權平均為 6.99%，平均贏過大盤 2.32 個百分點，在 64.2% 的月份中跑贏發行量加權股價報酬指數。

每月對全市場符合訊號的股票取等權平均前瞻 60 日還原報酬，再對月份平均；超額相對發行量加權股價報酬指數

目前未成立的訊號（歷史統計供參）

這些訊號現在沒有發生，列出歷史樣本以供對照

股價創 252 日新高（突破日）

Pending

還原股價首次站上過去 252 個交易日最高；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

What does 永豐20年美公債 do? Company profile

國外債券ETF(債券型ETF/被動式固定收益) 上櫃(櫃買中心/TPEx)

Overview

本商品為ETF(指數股票型基金),非營運公司。發行人為永豐證券投資信託股份有限公司(永豐投信),隸屬永豐金控集團。基金完整名稱為「永豐美國息收ETF傘型證券投資信託基金之永豐20年期以上美國公債ETF證券投資信託基金」,簡稱永豐20年美公債。基金成立日為2019年9月19日,2019年9月30日於櫃買中心(TPEx)掛牌上櫃,證券代號00857B(報價代碼00857B.TWO)。基金經理人為林永祥,保管銀行為中國信託商業銀行,計價幣別為新台幣。費用方面,經理費約年0.10%~0.11%,保管費依規模級距約0.05%~0.09%,整體總管理(內扣)費用率約0.17%~0.22%。基金規模約新台幣132億元(約13,235百萬元,2026/06/16),受益人數眾多,屬國內規模較大的美國長天期公債ETF之一。配息頻率為季配(每年4次)。

Business

本ETF以追蹤「ICE 20年期以上美國公債指數」(ICE BofAML / ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Index)之績效表現為管理目標,採被動式指數化(完全複製/最佳化抽樣)策略操作,投資標的為到期日20年期以上的美國政府公債(U.S. Treasury),成分債約39檔。前十大持債為各期長天期美國公債(例如 T 4 1/4 02/15/54、T 4 1/2 11/15/54 等),屬高存續期間(long duration)固定收益商品,對美國長天期殖利率變動高度敏感。商業模式為向投資人收取管理費/保管費,提供以新台幣即可參與美國長天期公債的工具,投資人可賺取債息(季配)並參與利率下行時的資本利得;現行殖利率(配息率)約4%上下,單季配息近期約0.25元。產品定位為資產配置、避險與利率行情(降息週期)操作工具,與股票呈現低度或負相關。

Outlook 2025–2028

本ETF屬長天期美國公債商品,展望主要取決於美國聯準會(Fed)利率政策與長端公債殖利率走勢,而非企業營運。成長動能:2025~2028期間若Fed延續或啟動降息循環、通膨回落、市場避險需求升溫,長天期公債價格將上揚,因高存續期間(約16~17年)使其對降息具高度價格彈性,有機會貢獻顯著資本利得,並提供穩定季配息收益,適合資產配置與股債平衡。潛在風險與挑戰:(1)利率風險最大——若通膨僵固、美國財政赤字與公債供給擴大、期限溢酬上升,長端殖利率走高將造成淨值大幅下跌;(2)匯率風險——基金以新台幣計價但持有美元資產,新台幣兌美元升值會侵蝕報酬;(3)美國主權信用與債限/評等風險;(4)配息來源可能含收益平準金,不保證配息;(5)折溢價與追蹤誤差風險。整體而言屬高波動的利率交易與長期配置工具,報酬與美國貨幣政策方向高度連動。

Sources（7）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

方法與限制

  • 所有報酬以還原股價（etl:adj_close）計算，已還原除權息與股票分割。
  • 超額報酬以發行量加權股價報酬指數（含息）為基準。
  • 估值位階與分位統計以「截至當天為止的自身歷史」滾動計算，不使用未來資訊。
  • 營收訊號的事件日對齊到公告截止日後第一個交易日，避免提前用到尚未公開的資訊。
  • 事件樣本之間日期可能重疊，統計僅描述歷史分布，樣本數較少時參考價值有限。

本頁內容為歷史資料統計與教育用途，不構成投資建議。投資一定有風險，過去績效不代表未來表現，交易前請自行評估並承擔風險。