Skip to main content
Free trial

Ask AI to review this stock

Copy the prompt to get recent events, historical reactions, and a short research brief.

Tell your AI:

Help me set up FinLab and analyze 1256 鮮活果汁-KY. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=1256

No install, open FinLab Studio

1256

鮮活果汁-KY Food As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 鮮活果汁-KY to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 70Quality 68Growth 68Momentum 72Chips 25

Is 鮮活果汁-KY a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 71th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.9%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 19th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 15th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -1.8% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 23.6%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Neutral -0.06
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
  • 臺銀 holds 85 lots
  • sellers have 138 lots left, ~160 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +14% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 臺銀 has accumulated 85 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
  • Main distributor 統一-桃園 peaked at 91 lots, has sold 77%, 21 left, ~3 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.22pp, mid holders -1, retail +1.19pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -57 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
臺銀台灣摩根士丹利新光-台南富邦-敦南統一-台中富邦-嘉義
Distributing
統一-桃園永豐金-萬盛新光-新竹群益金鼎-東門摩根大通元大-新莊
Desks
own scale
台新證券凱基-斗六港商野村康和-嘉義
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 臺銀 +85
    sold 0%
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +68
    sold 14%· still adding
  • 新光-台南 +52
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-敦南 +50
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 統一-台中 +34
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-嘉義 +34
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 統一-桃園 21 left
    sold 77%· ~3 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金-萬盛 42 left
    sold 29%· ~60 sessions to clear
  • 新光-新竹 13 left
    sold 72%· paused recently
  • 群益金鼎-東門 22 left
    sold 44%· paused recently
  • 摩根大通 27 left
    sold 25%· paused recently
  • 元大-新莊 14 left
    sold 56%· ~8 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 台新證券 -47
    unclassified
  • 凱基-斗六 -41
    unclassified
  • 港商野村 -38
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 康和-嘉義 -34
    unclassified
Still selling 138 lots ~160 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +251 absorbed / -132 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -31 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 23.65%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

64 historical occurrences (since 2012-09-05)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 42.6%, Sample 61, Median -0.9%, Excess -0.12%, Beat mkt rate 34.4%；60-day: Win 55.9%, Sample 59, Median +5.12%, Excess +0.48%, Beat mkt rate 39%；120-day: Win 48.2%, Sample 56, Median -2.22%, Excess +7.96%, Beat mkt rate 39.3%

120 days after: historical avg +17.29%

20-day +2.26%
60-day +6.07%
120-day +17.29%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
42.6%
55.9%
48.2%
Sample
61
59
56
Median
-0.9%
+5.12%
-2.22%
Excess
-0.12%
+0.48%
+7.96%
Beat mkt rate
34.4%
39%
39.3%

Over 56 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 17.29%, beat the market by 7.96 pts; win rate 48.2%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here601+33.4% +33.9% 81% +17.4%
20-40 600+23.2% +16.5% 76.8% +0.4%
40-60 430+7.1% +11.5% 64.9% -10.1%
60-80 464-7.2% +1.2% 53% -23.6%
80-100 275-15.1% -22.3% 25.1% -43%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 13.48, at the 15.2th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Now
+22%
Win rate 71.9% Excess +12.8%
374d
+11%
Win rate 66.5% Excess -1.4%
504d
-2.5%
Win rate 31.4% Excess -14.7%
350d
60-day momentum down
+6.6%
Win rate 55.8% Excess -1%
643d
-6.8%
Win rate 31.4% Excess -17.2%
398d
+0.1%
Win rate 37.1% Excess -6.8%
202d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 374 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 22%, win rate 71.9%, beat the market by 12.8%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

20 times historically; 60-day forward avg -1.25%, win rate 47.4%, beating the market by -4.37 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

41 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.53%, win rate 55%, beating the market by +7.9 pts on average.

What does 鮮活果汁-KY do? Company profile

食品工業；新茶飲與飲品原料供應鏈 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

1256 對應證券為鮮活果汁-KY，ISIN 為 KYG858681003，於台灣證券交易所上市，證券類型為股票，產業分類為食品工業。公司全名為鮮活控股股份有限公司，英文名稱 Sunjuice Holdings Co., Limited，註冊地為開曼群島，登記地址為 Suite 102, Cannon Place, P.O. Box 712, North Sound Rd., George Town, Grand Cayman, KY1-9006, Cayman Islands；主要營運主體在中國大陸，重要營運地包含蘇州鮮活飲品股份有限公司、廣東鮮活果汁生物科技有限公司、鮮活果汁工業天津有限公司、廣西鮮活生物科技有限公司等。公司控股架構成立於 2010/01/12，營運根源可追溯至 1998 年在昆山投入果蔬汁、果粒果醬與飲品原料業務。公開發行日為 2012/07/26，2012/09/05 上櫃，2016/03/17 轉上市。依 2026 年公開資訊與市場資料，實收資本額約新台幣 357,721,600 元，已發行普通股約 35,772,160 股。董事長黃國晃於 2026/06/09 董事會改選後續任；總經理於 2026/03/11 起由黃薰毅接任，舊任為吳明憲。2024 年報揭露截至 2025/04/30 員工合計 860 人，另 2025 年底媒體報導集團員工約 850 人。主要股東依 2024 年報 2025/03/31 資料為黃國晃 26.43%、林麗玲 18.12%、吳明憲 3.53%；其後 2025 年現增與 2026 年持股申報轉讓可能使比例變動，最新完整股東名冊需以公開資訊觀測站與公司最新年報為準。

Business

公司定位為新茶飲綜合解決方案與飲品原料供應商，主要從事果汁類、果粒類、果粉類、糖漿、蛋白飲料、固體飲料、口感顆粒、直飲與冷凍預製品之研發、生產與銷售，商業模式以 B2B 為主，提供新茶飲品牌、連鎖餐飲、食品加工廠、經銷商、大型零售與新零售通路客製化產品、配方開發、品質控管與供應鏈服務。2024 年產品營收結構為果汁新台幣 2,184,656 千元、占 55%；果粒 1,746,230 千元、占 44%；果粉 59,183 千元、占 1%；其他 12,058 千元、占 0%；合計銷貨淨額 4,002,127 千元。主要產品應用包括水果茶、奶蓋茶、輕乳茶、氣泡水、奶昔、冰沙、咖啡、奶茶、甜品、霜淇淋、直飲瓶裝或袋裝飲品等。公司年均生產近兩千種規格品類，透過少量多樣與客製化能力服務不同品牌客戶。媒體報導指出其客戶涵蓋中國大陸頭部茶飲、咖啡與零售通路，例如蜜雪冰城、喜茶、古茗、瑞幸咖啡、盒馬鮮生等；此類具名客戶屬媒體與產業報導資訊，非公司年報逐一揭露。公司 2025 年全年營收約新台幣 41.2 億元、年增約 2.9%，稅後純益約 3.82 億元、EPS 11.19 元，配發 2025 年度現金股利每股 6.6 元。2026 年第一季營收約 11.42 億元、年增 55.29%，毛利率 30.39%，稅後純益 1.16 億元，EPS 3.24 元；2026 年 1-5 月累計營收約 20.72 億元、年增 46.77%，直飲產品與連鎖餐飲系統需求為主要動能。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望重點包括：一、產業需求仍有中長期成長但增速放緩。公司年報引用艾媒諮詢資料指出 2024 年中國新茶飲市場規模約人民幣 3,547.2 億元，2028 年有望突破人民幣 4,000 億元，驅動力包括健康消費、低糖低脂無添加、產品創新、品牌出海與新零售通路。二、產品結構升級。2025 年起公司加速切入直飲產品，2025 年直飲約占營收 32%，2026 年前 5 月公司內部統計已逼近 50%，顯示從純原料供應轉向較高附加價值的直飲、冷鏈、預製與零售產品。三、產能與全球化。公司在中國大陸昆山、天津、廣東、廣西四廠合計年產能約 15.5 萬噸；昆山智能第二廠預計 2026 年第二季完工，作為未來海外設廠可複製模型；屏東廠為中國大陸以外首個生產基地，總投資媒體報導逾新台幣 4 億元，目標供應台灣、美國、東南亞及中國大陸以外客戶，公開報導對量產時點有 2026 年第一季、第二季試營運或 2026 年 7 月第一桶產品等不同說法，應以公司後續公告為準。四、海外市場。公司已成立國際事業部、完成清真認證換證，開發近百款符合海外法規與客戶需求產品，並規劃透過展會、市調、海外經銷與連鎖合作拓展東南亞、美國等市場。五、風險與挑戰。中國新茶飲進入存量競爭，品牌價格戰、規模戰、產品同質化、下游客戶自建供應鏈、大型零售通路自有品牌、原物料價格波動、食安與冷鏈管理、海外法規與匯率、屏東與昆山新產能爬坡不確定性，均可能壓縮毛利或影響訂單。公司因應策略為深化上游水果供應鏈、低點建立彈性庫存、提升冷鏈物流與智慧製造、加快新品研發、延伸至烘焙輕食與新零售、強化食品安全與客戶客製化能力。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 新鮮水果、凍果、水果原汁與濃縮果汁供應商 公司主要採購果蔬汁類原料，包括新鮮水果、凍果、水果原汁、濃縮果汁等；年報稱上游供應商數量多且分散，不依賴特定供應商。公司官網亦稱網羅中國、巴西、西班牙、以色列、印度、日本等全球水果原料，屬原料供應來源而非單一台股掛牌公司。
  • 糖類、膠體與食品添加配料供應商 提供果糖、砂糖、膠體、調味與加工用配料；屬食品原料上游，年報未揭露具名主要供應商。
  • 包裝材料供應商 供應瓶裝、袋裝、冷藏冷凍與常溫產品所需包材；年報列為上游原輔材料之一，未揭露具名供應商。
  • 昆山姜杭生態農業科技開發有限公司 公司 2025 年董事會通過由子公司蘇州鮮活飲品股份有限公司取得其 51% 股權，推估用於深化上游農業與水果原料掌握；該公司非台股掛牌，詳細營運貢獻仍待後續年報確認。
Downstream
  • 中國大陸新茶飲品牌與門店體系 主要下游客戶群，包括大型新茶飲、新零售企業、中小型新茶飲品牌門店與個體門店；公司提供果汁、果粒、口感顆粒、糖漿、直飲與客製化配方。具名客戶如蜜雪冰城、喜茶、古茗等為媒體報導資訊，非台股掛牌。
  • 連鎖餐飲、咖啡與食品加工廠 年報列為下游應用，產品用於餐飲、咖啡、甜品、食品加工等場景；媒體報導客戶包含瑞幸咖啡、肯德基等，均非台股掛牌公司。
  • 大型零售、新零售與會員制商超通路 直飲產品與冷藏冷凍短保產品銷售通路，媒體提及盒馬、山姆等大型零售場景；公司 2026 年直飲營收占比提升，零售通路成為重要成長動能，相關公司非台股掛牌。
  • 海外經銷與連鎖客戶 公司成立國際事業部並開發海外法規適用產品，目標服務東南亞、美國及其他中國大陸以外市場；多數客戶尚未具名揭露。

Competitors

  • 田野創新股份有限公司 中國北交所上市的新茶飲原料果汁與速凍果蔬供應商，為鮮活在中國新茶飲果汁原料領域的可比競爭者；非台股掛牌。
  • 德馨食品 中國現製飲品配料業者，產品包含飲品濃漿、風味糖漿等，曾被報導為瑞幸、蜜雪冰城供應商與 IPO 候選企業；非台股掛牌，上市狀態。
  • 下游頭部新茶飲品牌自建供應鏈 公司年報指出部分頭部新茶飲品牌開始涉足源頭水果種植甚至生產製造，形成垂直整合競爭；此為產業競爭型態而非單一公司。
  • 農夫山泉、可口可樂美汁源等常溫果汁與即飲飲料品牌 在 RTD 即飲與零售果汁市場構成間接競爭；多為中國、香港或海外上市及跨國企業，非台股掛牌。
  • 德麥食品 1264 台股上櫃食品原料與烘焙材料公司，與鮮活同屬食品配料供應鏈，但主力在烘焙與餐飲材料，非果汁新茶飲原料直接同業，列為台灣食品配料市場的間接可比公司。
  • 黑松 1234 台股上市飲料公司，與鮮活在即飲飲品與通路產品上可能有間接競爭，但黑松以自有品牌飲料為主，非 B2B 新茶飲原料供應商。
Sources（18）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.