Ask AI to review this stock
Copy the prompt to get recent events, historical reactions, and a short research brief.
Tell your AI:
Help me set up FinLab and analyze 1341 富林-KY. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=1341
1341
steady quality, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 富林-KY a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
-
Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 75th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 6.9%.
-
Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 27th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 87th percentile.
-
Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 9.7% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +7% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 中國信託-高雄 has accumulated 127 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 元大-六合 peaked at 20 lots, has sold 40%, 12 left, ~20 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.00pp, mid holders +1, retail -0.86pp — little change.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -31 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 中國信託-高雄 +127
- 凱基-大安 +110
- 台新-台中 +40
- 花旗環球 +22
- 華南永昌-林口 +17
- 台灣摩根士丹利 +16
Distributing
- 元大-六合 12 left
- 元大-新生 6 left
- 凱基-站前 2 left
- 元大-桃興 3 left
- 新光 3 left
- 美商高盛 3 left
Desks
- 永豐金-台中 -186
- 元大-北府 -109
- 凱基-松山 -25
- 富邦-南屯 -18
Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 0 | Insufficient data | |||
| 20-40 | 34 | +15.7% | +15.7% | 100% | +24.2% |
| 40-60 | 87 | -4.3% | -4.7% | 6.9% | -59.1% |
| 60-80 | 412 | +4.2% | +5.4% | 68.4% | -27.4% |
| 80-100 You are here | 292 | +5.1% | +7.7% | 67.8% | -12.7% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 15.25, at the 86.6th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
(2d)
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 372 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 2%, win rate 67.7%, lagged the market by 0.5%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
13 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.44%, win rate 61.5%, beating the market by -5.57 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
15 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.1%, win rate 60%, beating the market by -0.09 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
12 times historically; 60-day forward avg -1.96%, win rate 44.4%, beating the market by -7.22 pts on average.
What does 富林-KY do? Company profile
Overview
富林-KY為註冊於開曼群島的控股公司(開曼控股於2016/11/30成立),實際營運主體富林塑膠工業位於越南,屬第三家自越南回台掛牌的越南台商;2018/12/24於台灣證券交易所上市,股票代號1341,產業類別歸為塑膠工業。董事長為王源林(亦暫代總經理),發言人為許乃仁,實收資本額約新台幣5.28億元。公司為家族企業色彩濃厚的越南台商,以越南為主要生產基地。財務概況:2024年全年營收約27.89億元、EPS約5.38元;2025年受終端需求轉弱影響,全年營收約25.67億元、累計前三季EPS約2.32元(年減約37%);2026年1月單月營收約2.48億元(年增約5.9%)。(部分數字為各財經網站揭露,確切數值以公司財報為準。)
Business
主要從事PVC人造皮革與環保PU皮革之生產與銷售,為越南第一大PVC人造皮革業者。產品營收結構約為:乳膠皮約67%、膠布約16%(含一次膠布與二次膠布)、柔軟皮約8%、PU/TPU布約8%。在越南市場乳膠皮與柔軟皮市占率約達86%、膠布市占率約34%,具明顯龍頭地位。銷售地區比重約為越南本地47%、東南亞(東協)21%、其他亞洲31%、美洲1%,以越南及周邊代工聚落為核心市場。商業模式為將上游石化原料(PVC粉、可塑劑等)加工為人造皮革半成品/成品,供應給下游各類製造代工廠。終端應用涵蓋皮件、鞋類、服飾、傢俱、包裝材料及運動用品等。主要客戶(以終端品牌計)包含傢俱類ASHLEY、皮件類COACH及Michael Kors(MK)、車用類YAMAHA/HONDA/TOYOTA、運動球類WILSON等;實際多透過越南當地代工廠供貨。
Outlook 2025–2028
成長動能:1)越南作為全球製鞋、傢俱、皮件與運動用品代工重鎮,在供應鏈持續移往東南亞(China+1)的趨勢下,可望帶動人造皮革在地需求;2)公司具越南在地市占龍頭優勢與在地化原料/物流成本優勢;3)透過產能擴充與產品線升級(環保PU、TPU等較高附加價值產品)強化獲利結構。風險與挑戰:1)2025年營收與EPS較2024年明顯衰退,反映終端消費(傢俱、皮件、鞋類)需求疲弱與庫存調整;2)主要原料PVC粉(聚氯乙烯樹脂)、可塑劑(塑化劑)等價格與油價連動,毛利受原物料波動影響大;3)營收高度集中越南/東南亞,易受當地景氣、勞動成本、越南盾與美元/台幣匯率波動衝擊;4)美中貿易與關稅政策、終端品牌轉單與在地同業競爭加劇。整體屬於景氣循環性原物料加工股,2025-2028展望須視全球消費需求復甦與越南製造聚落成長而定。(2025年之後屬前瞻推估,非公司正式財測。)
Supply Chain
- PVC粉(聚氯乙烯樹脂)供應商 最主要原料,用於乳膠皮/膠布/柔軟皮製造;公司未公開具名供應商。台灣代表性PVC生產業者如台塑(1301)、華夏(1305)、大洋塑膠;越南多就近採購,確切供應商未揭露(推估)。
- 可塑劑(塑化劑)供應商 重要原料,用於調整人造皮革柔軟度;台灣塑化劑代表業者如聯成(1313)、南亞(1303),富林實際供應商未具名(推估)。
- 乳化粉、處理劑、印墨、色料供應商 公司年報列示之重要原物料(乳化粉、表面處理劑、印墨、色料等),具名供應商未公開揭露。
- 越南/東南亞製鞋、傢俱、皮件、汽機車內裝代工廠 直接客戶,採購人造皮革半成品/成品再加工為終端產品;多為越南當地及東南亞代工聚落業者(多未上市或非台股)。
- Ashley Furniture 傢俱終端品牌客戶(美國未上市私人企業)。
- Coach / Tapestry 皮件終端品牌客戶(母公司Tapestry為美國紐約證交所上市)。
- Michael Kors / Capri Holdings 皮件終端品牌客戶(母公司Capri Holdings為美國紐約證交所上市)。
- Yamaha / Honda / Toyota 汽機車座椅與內裝用人造皮革終端應用客戶(均為日本上市企業)。
- Wilson 運動球類(球皮)終端品牌客戶(母公司Amer Sports於美國上市)。
Competitors
- 三芳化工(三芳) 1307 台股上市,全球PU合成皮龍頭,主力應用於鞋材;與富林同屬人造皮革領域但產品/客群側重不同,為台股最具代表性同業。
- 曙光 越南當地人造皮革(乳膠皮、柔軟皮、膠布)競爭業者,非台股掛牌。
- 力冠 越南當地人造皮革(乳膠皮、柔軟皮、膠布)競爭業者,非台股掛牌。
- 興業 越南當地膠布主要競爭業者,非台股掛牌。
- 惠玲 越南當地膠布競爭業者,非台股掛牌。
Sources（9）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.