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1418

東華 Textiles As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 東華 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 34Quality 4Growth 96Momentum 28Chips 51

Is 東華 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 1th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -3.4%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 99th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 96th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 0.5% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 206.4%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.31
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
  • 華南永昌-麻豆 holds 210 lots
  • sellers have 28 lots left, ~30 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -7% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 華南永昌-麻豆 has accumulated 210 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 元大-六合 peaked at 58 lots, has sold 60%, 23 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.38pp, mid holders +1, retail -0.46pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -37 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
華南永昌-麻豆元大-大灣元大-新莊群益金鼎-台中元大-文心富邦-中壢
Distributing
元大-六合永豐金-敦南臺銀-高雄永豐金-中正元大-三民永豐金-天母
Desks
own scale
統一-新營元大-中和元大-楊梅群益金鼎-忠孝
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 華南永昌-麻豆 +210
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-大灣 +165
    sold 3%· still adding
  • 元大-新莊 +85
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 群益金鼎-台中 +76
    sold 3%
  • 元大-文心 +45
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-中壢 +43
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 元大-六合 23 left
    sold 60%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-敦南 22 left
    sold 44%· ~13 sessions to clear
  • 臺銀-高雄 4 left
    sold 79%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-中正 8 left
    sold 47%· paused recently
  • 元大-三民 8 left
    sold 38%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-天母 5 left
    sold 38%· paused recently

Desks

  • 統一-新營 -215
    unclassified
  • 元大-中和 -71
    unclassified
  • 元大-楊梅 -65
    unclassified
  • 群益金鼎-忠孝 -36
    unclassified
Still selling 28 lots ~30 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +214 absorbed / -19 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -2 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 206.41%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

67 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 47.4%, Sample 57, Median 0%, Excess -0.06%, Beat mkt rate 45.6%；60-day: Win 53.6%, Sample 56, Median +1.22%, Excess +0.52%, Beat mkt rate 41.1%；120-day: Win 44.6%, Sample 56, Median -3.13%, Excess -1.73%, Beat mkt rate 39.3%

120 days after: historical avg +5.55%

20-day +1.31%
60-day +3.83%
120-day +5.55%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
47.4%
53.6%
44.6%
Sample
57
56
56
Median
0%
+1.22%
-3.13%
Excess
-0.06%
+0.52%
-1.73%
Beat mkt rate
45.6%
41.1%
39.3%

Over 56 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.55%, lagged the market by 1.73 pts; win rate 44.6%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 0Insufficient data
20-40 0Insufficient data
40-60 0Insufficient data
60-80 96-8.9% -29.5% 33.3% -27.3%
80-100 You are here126-30.6% -32.2% 0% -42.5%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 406.0, at the 95.7th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Insufficient data
(0d)
Insufficient data
(12d)
-8.3%
Win rate 26.8% Excess -17.6%
127d
60-day momentum down
Insufficient data
(0d)
+18.5%
Win rate 33.3% Excess -7.4%
75d
Now
-18.4%
Win rate 4.1% Excess -20.6%
123d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 123 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 18.4%, win rate 4.1%, lagged the market by 20.6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

21 times historically; 60-day forward avg +16.51%, win rate 61.9%, beating the market by +12.97 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

14 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.59%, win rate 33.3%, beating the market by -8.37 pts on average.

What does 東華 do? Company profile

紡織纖維；近年轉向不動產租賃、開發與資產活化 上市（台灣證券交易所）

Overview

1418 對應證券為東華龍股份有限公司，台股簡稱東華，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF、ETN、特別股或權證。公司成立於 1970/03/02，股票於 1977/02/14 上市。原名東華合纖股份有限公司，因應多角化經營與發展多元事業，2022/10/06 奉經濟部核准更名為東華龍股份有限公司。總部位於台北市中正區新生南路一段56號9樓。董事長林壯儒，總經理林壯燁，發言人葉燕玲。實收資本額 568,343,090 元，已發行普通股數 56,834,309 股。員工規模依 113 年報為 2024 年底 32 人，2025 年 1 至 4 月為 33 人，平均服務年資約 19 年。主要股東依 113 年報前十大股東資料包括中菱股份有限公司持股 36.80%、寧漢企業股份有限公司 6.85%、東燁投資股份有限公司 4.44%、陳張月英 2.51%、彭繼賢 2.50%、蔡靜涵 2.09%、林天佑 1.75%、李立民 1.58%、曾松澤 1.50%、三鐘股份有限公司 1.06%。

Business

公司歷史本業為聚丙烯腈纖維、亞克力棉之生產與銷售，亞克力棉又稱人造羊毛，主要用於毛衣、絨布、毛毯、地毯、手鈎紗、沙發布、襪子、玩具、室內飾品與仿動物毛等。公司曾以自有品牌東華龍切入亞克力棉市場，並開發抗起毛球、超細丹尼短纖與絲束、扁平纖維等特殊品種。因台灣下游紗線、布料、成衣供應鏈大量外移，中國大陸同業崛起、進口需求下降，且聚酯棉、尼龍絲等替代纖維競爭，公司亞克力棉本業長期承壓。公司董事會於 2021/04/01 通過亞克力棉生產線停止生產案，現階段主要維持進口亞克力纖維供應內銷需求的買賣模式，並將營運重心轉向資產活化、不動產租賃與不動產開發。114 年度產品組合資料顯示亞克力棉營收 5,118 仟元、占比 100%，114 年度生產量 0 公噸、銷售量 76 公噸。2025 年 9 月法說會揭露，主要營業項目為買賣聚丙烯腈合成纖維及不動產租賃及開發；2025 年上半年合併營業收入 3,549 仟元、營業損失 37,949 仟元、稅後淨損 82,822 仟元、每股虧損 1.52 元，每股淨值 22.42 元。主要客戶依 113 年報包括達佑、佳和、理隆、旭群、豪士等；2024 年銷貨淨額 9,551 仟元，達佑占 48%、佳和占 20%、理隆占 12%、旭群占 10%、豪士占 10%。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年的核心觀察不在傳統亞克力棉復產，而在資產活化與不動產開發能否轉化為現金流與損益。纖維本業方面，公司揭露 2024 及 2025 年中國大陸亞克力棉需求量約 60 萬噸，供需平穩但成長停滯，2024 年公司估未來年需求成長率約 -1% 至 +1%，低於合成纖維平均成長；2025 年亞克力棉平均價格較 2024 年下跌約新台幣 4 元/公斤、跌幅約 6%，市況仍偏艱困。公司短期仍可能以進口亞克力纖維轉售、服務少量內銷客戶為主，營收規模有限，毛利難以支撐固定費用。資產活化方面，2025 年法說會列出四項重點：第一，與台展建設股份有限公司就新竹土地 3,599.96 坪採合建分屋方式興建廠辦大樓，2022/03/29 簽訂不動產合建契約，至 2025/09/18 仍在新竹縣政府申請建築執照；第二，新竹廠全區工業區都市更新案於 2024/01/23 董事會通過，實施者為臺科建設開發股份有限公司，最終結果以主管機關核定公告為準；第三，台北市北投區新洲美段自地委建案，土地面積 755.616 平方公尺、取得成本 388,574 仟元，公司持份 30%，委託佳邸建設股份有限公司整合其他地主，預計投入興建款 6 億元，規劃住宅大樓施工與銷售；第四，台北市南港區玉成段合建分屋案，2025/05/08 董事會通過與 100% 子公司山河壯股份有限公司合建住宅大樓銷售，土地面積 537 平方公尺，預計投入興建款 2.3 億元，分配比例地主 60%、建方 40%，2025/08/04 董事會通過共同委託佳邸建設負責規劃設計興建施工。2025 至 2028 年成長動能主要來自上述建照、都更核定、開工、銷售入帳進度及土地資產重估或活化效益；風險包括主管機關核准時程延後、營建成本上升、房市景氣與政策信用管制、利率與融資壓力、公司本業營收過小導致費用與利息負擔侵蝕淨值，以及不動產案入帳時點高度不確定。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • JILIN CHEMICAL FIBER GROUP I/E CO., LTD. 亞克力纖維供應商；113 年供應 112 公噸、金額 6,738 仟元，114 年 1 至 4 月供應 22 公噸、金額 1,280 仟元；非台股掛牌公司。
  • DSA TEXTILE ENTERPRISES LTD. 亞克力纖維供應商；113 年供應 21 公噸、金額 1,472 仟元；非台股掛牌公司。
  • 台展建設股份有限公司 新竹土地合建分屋案合作開發商，負責投入資金合作興建廠辦大樓；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 臺科建設開發股份有限公司 新竹廠全區工業區都市更新案實施者；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 佳邸建設股份有限公司 北投新洲美段自地委建案及南港玉成段合建案之規劃、設計、興建施工合作廠商；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
Downstream
  • 達佑 亞克力纖維銷售客戶；113 年為最大客戶，銷售金額 4,632 仟元、占銷貨淨額 48%；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 佳和 亞克力纖維銷售客戶；113 年銷售金額 1,947 仟元、占 20%；名稱與台股公司可能重名，未能確認即為上市公司，故 stock_id 留空。
  • 理隆 亞克力纖維銷售客戶；113 年銷售金額 1,099 仟元、占 12%；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 旭群 亞克力纖維銷售客戶；113 年銷售金額 955 仟元、占 10%；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 豪士 亞克力纖維銷售客戶；113 年銷售金額 918 仟元、占 10%；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 毛衣、毛毯、地毯、玩具、仿動物毛與家飾紡織品業者 亞克力棉終端應用下游，多數為紡紗、織造、成衣與家飾品供應鏈，許多產能位於中國大陸與東協；非單一掛牌公司。

Competitors

  • 吉林化纖 中國大陸亞克力纖維與碳纖維相關業者；公司年報提及吉林化纖轉發展碳纖並持續擴產，非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 上海石化 中國大陸石化與腈綸相關業者；公司年報提及上海石化腈綸轉發展碳纖並持續擴產，非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 台塑 1301 台灣化纖與石化同業；過去曾有亞克力纖維相關產線，後轉向較具競爭力之碳纖維製程，屬歷史與替代技術競爭參考。
  • 遠東新 1402 台股紡織纖維大型同業，主要在聚酯、紡織與相關材料；與東華亞克力棉並非完全同產品，但同屬合成纖維與紡織材料競爭圈。
  • 新纖 1409 台股紡織纖維同業，主要在聚酯、化纖與相關產品；屬廣義合成纖維競爭者。
  • 力麗 1444 台股紡織纖維同業，產品以尼龍、聚酯與紡織相關業務為主；屬替代纖維與廣義紡織材料競爭者。
Sources（13）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.