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1438

三地開發 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 三地開發 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 74Quality 75Growth 100Momentum 3Chips 14

Is 三地開發 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~94% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.3%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 4th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 26th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -3.8% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 81874.3%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.47
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 元大-華山 holds 609 lots
  • sellers have 123 lots left, ~70 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -32% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 元大-華山 has accumulated 609 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 204 lots, has sold 78%, 44 left, ~3 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.68pp, mid holders +0, retail -0.87pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -67 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
元大-華山元大-新店中正國泰-敦南元大-汐止玉山-板橋宏遠-台中
Distributing
台灣摩根士丹利凱基富邦-宜蘭台新-新興元大-復北第一金-桃園
Desks
own scale
中國信託-忠孝富邦-新店臺銀-金山美好-高雄
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 元大-華山 +609
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-新店中正 +177
    sold 0%
  • 國泰-敦南 +169
    sold 16%· still adding
  • 元大-汐止 +101
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 玉山-板橋 +82
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 宏遠-台中 +80
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 44 left
    sold 78%· ~3 sessions to clear
  • 凱基 17 left
    sold 58%· ~7 sessions to clear
  • 富邦-宜蘭 14 left
    sold 48%· ~70 sessions to clear
  • 台新-新興 12 left
    sold 40%· ~15 sessions to clear
  • 元大-復北 8 left
    sold 56%· ~8 sessions to clear
  • 第一金-桃園 3 left
    sold 81%· paused recently

Desks

  • 中國信託-忠孝 -276
    unclassified
  • 富邦-新店 -152
    unclassified
  • 臺銀-金山 -118
    unclassified
  • 美好-高雄 -110
    unclassified
Still selling 123 lots ~70 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +733 absorbed / -201 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -7 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 81874.27%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

46 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 42, Median +1.15%, Excess +2.67%, Beat mkt rate 38.1%；60-day: Win 61%, Sample 41, Median +4.11%, Excess +9.72%, Beat mkt rate 43.9%；120-day: Win 58.5%, Sample 41, Median +6.92%, Excess +10.95%, Beat mkt rate 46.3%

120 days after: historical avg +17.93%

20-day +4.57%
60-day +13.94%
120-day +17.93%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.1%
61%
58.5%
Sample
42
41
41
Median
+1.15%
+4.11%
+6.92%
Excess
+2.67%
+9.72%
+10.95%
Beat mkt rate
38.1%
43.9%
46.3%

Over 41 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 17.93%, beat the market by 10.95 pts; win rate 58.5%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 67-19.3% -19.5% 0% -227%
20-40 You are here100+145.6% +158.5% 100% +42.9%
40-60 122+61% +32.1% 82.8% +33.6%
60-80 256+68.2% +26.5% 84.8% +17.8%
80-100 470+4.6% -8% 27.2% -1.1%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 8.17, at the 25.7th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+21.3%
Win rate 35.5% Excess -51%
121d
+1.9%
Win rate 17.2% Excess -5.8%
58d
-6.8%
Win rate 21.1% Excess -10.2%
342d
60-day momentum down
Now
+68.6%
Win rate 70.6% Excess -3.1%
143d
+15.1%
Win rate 74.6% Excess +0.7%
134d
+17.8%
Win rate 54.4% Excess +10.4%
316d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 143 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 68.6%, win rate 70.6%, lagged the market by 3.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

24 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.5%, win rate 54.2%, beating the market by +1.9 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

24 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.52%, win rate 30.4%, beating the market by -5.47 pts on average.

What does 三地開發 do? Company profile

建材營造業／不動產開發業 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

1438 為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，證券名稱為三地開發，現公司全名為三地開發地產股份有限公司。公司創立於1955年10月，1988年12月上市掛牌，原名裕豐國際開發股份有限公司，2020年7月經濟部核准更名為三地開發地產股份有限公司並遷址高雄市。公司總部位於高雄市，董事長為鍾育霖，總經理為莊峻宇。依公司2025年法人說明會資料，資本額為新台幣11.12億元，其中含私募普通股2億元。依2024年年報，截至2025年5月20日員工合計14人，平均年齡43歲，平均服務年資1.63年。2024年年報揭露之2025年4月25日前十大股東包括三嘉開發建築股份有限公司持股17.98%、三地建築有限公司14.37%、八方資產管理股份有限公司9.14%、陸瑩投資股份有限公司6.67%、鍾嘉村5.31%、江佳玲2.90%、佳雪投資股份有限公司2.67%、張昭焚2.55%、江紹輔2.04%等；其中三嘉開發建築、三地建築、八方資產管理、陸瑩投資及鍾嘉村之間存在代表人或親屬關係。2024年度營業收入為新台幣11.66647億元，2025年前三季營業收入為新台幣2,061.6萬元，2025年前三季稅後淨損為新台幣9,960.2萬元；2025年前三季資產總額143.05408億元、負債總額114.54699億元、權益總額28.50709億元。2025年全年個體財報顯示營業收入新台幣12.59124億元，主要收入來源仍為房地收入。

Business

公司主要業務為委託營造廠商興建商業大樓、工業大樓及住宅出租出售，以及不動產買賣。公司在年報中說明其屬建材營造產業鏈中游，通常先取得土地後進行設計、發包、施工管理、企劃銷售、驗收、完工交屋與售後服務。主要產品依用途分為住宅類與非住宅類：住宅類包括透天別墅、電梯華廈與電梯大樓；非住宅類包括廠辦、店舖、一般事務所、企業總部、商辦及倉儲等。2024年度營收全部來自台灣，上市櫃建材營造業營收市占率約0.21%，屬區域型中小型建商。2024年度主要銷貨客戶中，嘉鑲開發建築股份有限公司占99.86%，主因公司將部分土地地上權轉售予該聯合協議下之合資個體；2023年度客戶幾乎全為一般個人，故年報採合併列示。主要供應與採購包括土地、地上權、營造工程、鋼構與機電等工程，2024年度主要供應商為尚發營造股份有限公司，占進貨淨額29.22%，中國鋼鐵結構股份有限公司占8.32%，其他占62.46%。公司目前營運重心集中於高雄、台南，並逐步擴及新北鶯歌等區域；開發方式包含自地自建、合建分售、地上權、都市更新、危老案件、共同投資興建與聯合協議合資。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望以既有在建案完工交屋、預售案銷售、南部科技與公共建設需求，以及廠辦與商辦產品多元化為主要動能。依2025年法人說明會，截至2025年12月20日，公司在建案包括艾美MOMA II期，預計2026年取得使用執照，總銷約9.28億元、銷售率95%；艾美新時代，預計2027年取得使用執照，總銷約30.90億元、銷售率98%；艾美柏，預計2028年取得使用執照，總銷約19.00億元、銷售率44%；艾美藏，預計2028年取得使用執照，總銷約26.56億元、銷售率33%；艾美御之苑，預計2029年取得使用執照，總銷約51.90億元、銷售率54%；艾美國際城，預計2029年取得使用執照，總銷約142.10億元、銷售率46%。2026年成屋推案包括艾美館NO8與艾美園，預計總銷分別約8.3億元與1.2億元。2027年預售推案規劃包括艾美新時代II期，總銷約62.55億元；高雄鳳山區鳳山段大老衙小段，總銷約61.22億元；台南仁德智慧科技園區I期，總銷約277.2億元，其中仁德案與京城建設採共同投資興建、雙方各50%，艾美新時代II期則由嘉鑲開發建築負責開發且公司持有嘉鑲50%股權。成長動能方面，南科、高雄半導體S廊帶、AI、軍工、安控、次世代通訊等產業投資，可能帶動南部住宅、廠辦、商辦與倉儲需求；公司也明確表示將順應市場調整，除集合住宅外增加獨立廠房、廠辦、企業總部、商辦及倉儲等產品。主要風險包括央行信用管制、房貸利率與資金緊縮、平均地權條例限制預售屋換約、囤房稅與房地合一稅政策、營建成本上升、土地取得競爭、建案銷售率與完工認列時點波動、公司槓桿較高造成財務費用壓力，以及未來大型案如仁德智慧科技園區是否如期推案與去化的不確定性。2025至2028營收與獲利可能高度取決於個別建案完工交屋與地上權或土地處分認列，年度間波動可能大。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 地主、政府地上權與土地標售單位 公司主要原料為土地，來源包括購入土地、關聯企業合作開發、政府土地公開標售、地上權及都市更新招商；2023年度主要供應商曾為財政部國有財產署南區分局，屬政府機關，非上市櫃公司。
  • 尚發營造股份有限公司 2024年度主要供應商，占公司進貨淨額29.22%，主要為營造工程款；未查得為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 中國鋼鐵結構股份有限公司 2013 2024年度主要供應商，占公司進貨淨額8.32%，供應鋼構或相關工程服務，為台灣上市公司。
  • 京城建設股份有限公司 2524 台南仁德智慧科技園區I期規劃與京城建設採共同投資興建方式開發，雙方合資比例各50%，屬合作開發夥伴而非傳統原料供應商。
  • 嘉鑲開發建築股份有限公司 艾美新時代II期由轉投資嘉鑲開發建築負責開發，公司持有其50%股權；嘉鑲為聯合協議下合資個體，未查得為台股上市櫃公司。
Downstream
  • 一般住宅購屋客戶 公司住宅產品主要銷售對象為個人自住、置產或換屋需求客戶；2023年度年報稱客戶幾乎全為一般個人，故未單獨揭露。
  • 企業、廠辦、商辦與倉儲使用者 公司未來產品規劃包含獨立廠房、廠辦、企業總部、商辦與倉儲，下游客戶可能為企業用戶或投資型買方；具體客戶名單未公開。
  • 嘉鑲開發建築股份有限公司 2024年度主要銷貨客戶，占銷貨淨額99.86%，主因公司將部分土地地上權轉售予該聯合協議下之合資個體；未上市櫃。
  • 尚發營造股份有限公司 2024年度銷貨客戶之一，占銷貨淨額0.14%；同時也是工程供應商，未查得為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 裝潢、物業管理與售後服務相關業者 年報說明房屋銷售後下游尚衍生裝潢、物業管理等相關行業，多為個案合作或消費者自行選擇，具體業者未公開。

Competitors

Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.