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1589

永冠-KY Electric Machinery As of 2026-07-29 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

1 active signal
外資連買5日
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 永冠-KY to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
估值 44品質 14成長 23動能 50籌碼 50

Is 永冠-KY a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • 獲利能力偏弱。營業利益率僅勝過全市場約 21% 的個股。最新一季 ROE 約 -3.9%。

  • 估值偏貴。本益比落在全市場第 81 百分位，比多數個股貴。以自身歷史看，目前本益比約在第 85 百分位。

  • 營收衰退。最新月營收年增率約 -5.4%，較去年同月下滑。

Chip flow

Bearish -0.26
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 國泰-敦南 holds 1,779 lots
  • sellers have 453 lots left, ~95 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -70% · branches to 2026-04-02· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 國泰-敦南 has accumulated 1,779 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 臺銀 peaked at 198 lots, has sold 59%, 82 left, ~7 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -7.04pp, mid holders -7, retail +8.25pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -346 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
國泰-敦南元大-南屯美商高盛凱基-新莊凱基-台北國泰-新竹
Distributing
臺銀台新-松江玉山-嘉義元大-南投富邦-陽明第一金-華江
Desks
own scale
新光-桃園土銀-南港康和國泰證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 國泰-敦南 +1,779
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-南屯 +1,403
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美商高盛 +753
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-新莊 +649
    sold 0%
  • 凱基-台北 +607
    sold 13%
  • 國泰-新竹 +594
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 臺銀 82 left
    sold 59%· ~7 sessions to clear
  • 台新-松江 127 left
    sold 27%· paused recently
  • 玉山-嘉義 83 left
    sold 51%· ~9 sessions to clear
  • 元大-南投 23 left
    sold 83%· paused recently
  • 富邦-陽明 96 left
    sold 28%· paused recently
  • 第一金-華江 27 left
    sold 79%· paused recently

Desks

  • 新光-桃園 -2,496
    unclassified
  • 土銀-南港 -1,401
    unclassified
  • 康和 -1,001
    unclassified
  • 國泰證券 -952
    unclassified
Still selling 453 lots ~95 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +7,538 absorbed / -627 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -295 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

目前正在發生的訊號

以下訊號在最近一筆資料中成立，附這檔股票自身歷史上每次出現後的前瞻報酬統計

外資連續買超滿 5 個交易日

Active · now 9%

外資（不含自營商）買賣超連續 5 日為正，事件日為第 5 日；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

60 historical occurrences (since 2013-03-11)
Average forward return after 外資連續買超滿 5 個交易日。20-day: Win 37.3%, Sample 59, Median -2.36%, Excess -3.02%, Beat mkt rate 42.4%；60-day: Win 37.9%, Sample 58, Median -5.14%, Excess -3.64%, Beat mkt rate 32.8%；120-day: Win 38.6%, Sample 57, Median -5.93%, Excess -1.93%, Beat mkt rate 38.6%

120 days after: historical avg +4.69%

20-day -2.19%
60-day -1.02%
120-day +4.69%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
37.3%
37.9%
38.6%
Sample
59
58
57
Median
-2.36%
-5.14%
-5.93%
Excess
-3.02%
-3.64%
-1.93%
Beat mkt rate
42.4%
32.8%
38.6%

Over 57 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 4.69%, lagged the market by 1.93 pts; win rate 38.6%.

估值位階與後續報酬

把這檔股票每天的本益比，換算成「截至當天為止的自身歷史百分位」，再看不同估值位階之後 240 個交易日的還原股價報酬。

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 127-28.1% -33.1% 11.8% -45.6%
20-40 209-25.8% -28.3% 12.4% -41.8%
40-60 247-18.8% -22.8% 23.9% -37.6%
60-80 153-19.9% -22% 13.7% -38.6%
80-100 You are here343+2.3% +0.8% 50.7% -35.7%

百分位以當天為止的自身歷史滾動計算（expanding），不含未來資訊；前瞻報酬為還原股價 240 交易日。樣本日重疊，僅供分布參考。

目前本益比約 27.18，落在自身歷史第 85.2 百分位，屬於 80-100 區間。

估值 × 動能的歷史對照

把自身歷史的每一天，依估值位階（本益比自身歷史三分位）與 60 日動能方向分成六格，看各情境之後 120 個交易日的還原股價報酬。

Valuation
Momentum
便宜
中等
昂貴
向上
-25.8%
Win rate 0% Excess -35.9%
46d
-18.5%
Win rate 12.4% Excess -22.7%
97d
-4.8%
Win rate 25.5% Excess -17.9%
255d
向下
-14.1%
Win rate 18.4% Excess -20.6%
374d
-10.8%
Win rate 24.1% Excess -19.3%
257d
Now
+28.7%
Win rate 64.9% Excess +7.9%
168d

Currently in “昂貴（自身歷史後 1/3） × 60 日動能向下”: across 168 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 28.7%, win rate 64.9%, beat the market by 7.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

這個訊號在全市場是否站得住腳

「月營收年增率 ≥ 20%」過去 243 個月，每月平均約 404 檔個股符合條件；這些個股之後 60 個交易日的還原股價報酬，等權平均為 6.99%，平均贏過大盤 2.32 個百分點，在 64.2% 的月份中跑贏發行量加權股價報酬指數。

每月對全市場符合訊號的股票取等權平均前瞻 60 日還原報酬，再對月份平均；超額相對發行量加權股價報酬指數

目前未成立的訊號（歷史統計供參）

這些訊號現在沒有發生，列出歷史樣本以供對照

股價創 252 日新高（突破日）

Pending

還原股價首次站上過去 252 個交易日最高；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

10 times historically; 60-day forward avg +23.77%, win rate 60%, beating the market by +23.09 pts on average.

月營收年增率 ≥ 20%（公告截止日起算）

Pending

單月營收年增率達 20% 以上；事件日為公告截止日後第一個交易日，避免提前用到未公告資訊

37 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.96%, win rate 38.9%, beating the market by -0.44 pts on average.

方法與限制

  • 所有報酬以還原股價（etl:adj_close）計算，已還原除權息與股票分割。
  • 超額報酬以發行量加權股價報酬指數（含息）為基準。
  • 估值位階與分位統計以「截至當天為止的自身歷史」滾動計算，不使用未來資訊。
  • 營收訊號的事件日對齊到公告截止日後第一個交易日，避免提前用到尚未公開的資訊。
  • 事件樣本之間日期可能重疊，統計僅描述歷史分布，樣本數較少時參考價值有限。

本頁內容為歷史資料統計與教育用途，不構成投資建議。投資一定有風險，過去績效不代表未來表現，交易前請自行評估並承擔風險。