Skip to main content
Free trial

Ask AI to review this stock

Copy the prompt to get recent events, historical reactions, and a short research brief.

Tell your AI:

Help me set up FinLab and analyze 1591 駿吉-KY. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=1591

No install, open FinLab Studio

1591

駿吉-KY Electric Machinery As of 2026-07-29 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 駿吉-KY to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
估值 14品質 20成長 94動能 11籌碼 18

Is 駿吉-KY a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • 獲利能力偏弱。營業利益率僅勝過全市場約 22% 的個股。最新一季 ROE 約 -0.7%。

  • 估值偏貴。本益比落在全市場第 90 百分位，比多數個股貴。以自身歷史看，目前本益比約在第 94 百分位。

  • 外資近期偏賣。外資近 20 日買賣超約佔成交量 -5.1%（賣超）。

  • 營收高成長。最新月營收年增率約 127.0%，超過 20% 的成長門檻。

Chip flow

Bearish -0.29
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 凱基-台北 holds 613 lots
  • sellers have 656 lots left, ~206 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -38% · branches to 2026-06-10· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 凱基-台北 has accumulated 613 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 新光 peaked at 729 lots, has sold 35%, 474 left, ~206 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -3.09pp, mid holders +0, retail +1.42pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -452 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
凱基-台北國泰-新莊國泰-忠孝聯邦-高雄合庫-高雄元大-新莊
Distributing
新光元大-歸仁凱基-高美館元大-鹿港國泰-館前凱基-科園
Desks
own scale
台新國票-新莊統一-土城群益金鼎-延平
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 凱基-台北 +613
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰-新莊 +559
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰-忠孝 +311
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 聯邦-高雄 +277
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 合庫-高雄 +271
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-新莊 +232
    sold 17%

Distributing

  • 新光 474 left
    sold 35%· ~206 sessions to clear
  • 元大-歸仁 26 left
    sold 90%· ~7 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-高美館 114 left
    sold 49%· paused recently
  • 元大-鹿港 82 left
    sold 50%· paused recently
  • 國泰-館前 105 left
    sold 33%· ~20 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-科園 42 left
    sold 64%· paused recently

Desks

  • 台新 -762
    unclassified
  • 國票-新莊 -663
    unclassified
  • 統一-土城 -350
    unclassified
  • 群益金鼎-延平 -335
    unclassified
Still selling 656 lots ~206 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,655 absorbed / -223 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -253 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

目前正在發生的訊號

以下訊號在最近一筆資料中成立，附這檔股票自身歷史上每次出現後的前瞻報酬統計

月營收年增率 ≥ 20%（公告截止日起算）

Active · now 126.96%

單月營收年增率達 20% 以上；事件日為公告截止日後第一個交易日，避免提前用到未公告資訊

68 historical occurrences (since 2012-03-23)
Average forward return after 月營收年增率 ≥ 20%（公告截止日起算）。20-day: Win 42.4%, Sample 59, Median -3.1%, Excess -2.22%, Beat mkt rate 33.9%；60-day: Win 43.9%, Sample 57, Median -3.74%, Excess -5.44%, Beat mkt rate 31.6%；120-day: Win 40%, Sample 55, Median -7.61%, Excess -9.8%, Beat mkt rate 30.9%

120 days after: historical avg -1.65%

20-day -0.06%
60-day +0.12%
120-day -1.65%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
42.4%
43.9%
40%
Sample
59
57
55
Median
-3.1%
-3.74%
-7.61%
Excess
-2.22%
-5.44%
-9.8%
Beat mkt rate
33.9%
31.6%
30.9%

Over 55 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 1.65%, lagged the market by 9.8 pts; win rate 40%.

估值位階與後續報酬

把這檔股票每天的本益比，換算成「截至當天為止的自身歷史百分位」，再看不同估值位階之後 240 個交易日的還原股價報酬。

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 323+68.7% +40.1% 98.8% +66.7%
20-40 156+26.1% +28.9% 77.6% +6.9%
40-60 386+9.2% +5.1% 50.8% -15.8%
60-80 349+2.3% +1.5% 50.7% -16.3%
80-100 You are here428-13.8% -14.5% 28.3% -29.8%

百分位以當天為止的自身歷史滾動計算（expanding），不含未來資訊；前瞻報酬為還原股價 240 交易日。樣本日重疊，僅供分布參考。

目前本益比約 63.49，落在自身歷史第 93.7 百分位，屬於 80-100 區間。

估值 × 動能的歷史對照

把自身歷史的每一天，依估值位階（本益比自身歷史三分位）與 60 日動能方向分成六格，看各情境之後 120 個交易日的還原股價報酬。

Valuation
Momentum
便宜
中等
昂貴
向上
+37.3%
Win rate 65% Excess +32.7%
220d
-1.8%
Win rate 32.4% Excess -10.7%
185d
-5%
Win rate 33.8% Excess -9.2%
411d
向下
+26.4%
Win rate 64.2% Excess +25.1%
310d
+6.9%
Win rate 40.2% Excess -5.6%
418d
Now
-3.1%
Win rate 45.1% Excess -19%
173d

Currently in “昂貴（自身歷史後 1/3） × 60 日動能向下”: across 173 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 3.1%, win rate 45.1%, lagged the market by 19%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

這個訊號在全市場是否站得住腳

「月營收年增率 ≥ 20%」過去 243 個月，每月平均約 404 檔個股符合條件；這些個股之後 60 個交易日的還原股價報酬，等權平均為 6.99%，平均贏過大盤 2.32 個百分點，在 64.2% 的月份中跑贏發行量加權股價報酬指數。

每月對全市場符合訊號的股票取等權平均前瞻 60 日還原報酬，再對月份平均；超額相對發行量加權股價報酬指數

目前未成立的訊號（歷史統計供參）

這些訊號現在沒有發生，列出歷史樣本以供對照

股價創 252 日新高（突破日）

Pending

還原股價首次站上過去 252 個交易日最高；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

20 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.34%, win rate 42.1%, beating the market by +0.26 pts on average.

外資連續買超滿 5 個交易日

Pending

外資（不含自營商）買賣超連續 5 日為正，事件日為第 5 日；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

16 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.38%, win rate 50%, beating the market by -2.47 pts on average.

方法與限制

  • 所有報酬以還原股價（etl:adj_close）計算，已還原除權息與股票分割。
  • 超額報酬以發行量加權股價報酬指數（含息）為基準。
  • 估值位階與分位統計以「截至當天為止的自身歷史」滾動計算，不使用未來資訊。
  • 營收訊號的事件日對齊到公告截止日後第一個交易日，避免提前用到尚未公開的資訊。
  • 事件樣本之間日期可能重疊，統計僅描述歷史分布，樣本數較少時參考價值有限。

本頁內容為歷史資料統計與教育用途，不構成投資建議。投資一定有風險，過去績效不代表未來表現，交易前請自行評估並承擔風險。