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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 1725 元禎. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=1725
1725
quality needs a look, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 元禎 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 34th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.6%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 47th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 86th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 10.4% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +14% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 摩根大通 has accumulated 191 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 富邦-三峽 peaked at 113 lots, has sold 42%, 66 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.00pp, mid holders +0, retail +0.00pp — little change.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -118 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 摩根大通 +191
- 台灣摩根士丹利 +98
- 富邦-台北 +91
- 元大-大統 +86
- 花旗環球 +75
- 台新證券 +57
Distributing
- 富邦-三峽 66 left
- 台新-台北 70 left
- 元大-彰化民生 15 left
- 凱基-台北 9 left
- 國泰-敦南 5 left
- 元大-莒光 9 left
Desks
- 元大-草屯 -205
- 元富 -113
- 富邦-陽明 -79
- 新光 -70
Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 630 | +12.8% | +11.7% | 89.4% | -2.2% |
| 20-40 | 713 | +8.5% | +5.4% | 68.7% | -0.5% |
| 40-60 | 453 | +8.7% | +1.4% | 58.9% | -7.1% |
| 60-80 | 577 | +44.8% | +49.8% | 66.4% | +16.9% |
| 80-100 You are here | 327 | +1.4% | -25.1% | 31.5% | -17.8% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 21.02, at the 85.6th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 499 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 16.5%, win rate 50.7%, beat the market by 5.6%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
26 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.7%, win rate 46.2%, beating the market by -1.94 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
49 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.67%, win rate 61.4%, beating the market by +5.13 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
29 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.1%, win rate 63%, beating the market by +0.64 pts on average.
What does 元禎 do? Company profile
Overview
元禎企業股份有限公司成立於1977年7月20日，總部位於台北市松山區民生東路四段54號3樓之3，1998年4月29日上櫃，2000年9月11日轉上市。董事長為許元禎，總經理依Yahoo股市及Goodinfo資料為姚永康；2025年法說會簡報揭露資本額約新台幣18億元、2024年合併營收約新台幣84億元、個體營收約新台幣68億元、員工總數102人。公開資料顯示實收資本額為新台幣1,818,299,780元，已發行普通股181,829,978股。公司在台北、台中、高雄、上海、廣州設有營運據點，台灣北中南有分裝設備、儲存槽及大型發貨倉庫，中國昆山、廣州設有境外倉儲，並擁有運輸及油罐車隊。主要股東基準日114年6月11日：元鼎投資33.83%、芳慶實業10.64%、鴻昌投資9.89%、永昌投資9.82%、元祥投資8.43%、榮浩投資7.29%、欣和化工4.56%、鴻華貿易3.23%、漢霆實業1.79%、財團法人永昌基金會1.14%。
Business
元禎為國內主要化工原料物流與通路商之一，主要經營石化、塑化原料、溶劑、添加劑及油品之進出口與經銷貿易，商業模式以向國內外石化廠採購或代理產品，再透過自有倉儲、分裝、配送與銷售網路供應下游客戶。2024年主要產品營收比重依公司法說會為化學品44%、塑膠35%、油品及其他21%；地區營收比重為台灣63%、中國大陸25%、其他12%。主要產品包含工業用化學品如丙烯酸類、甲基丙烯酸類、苯乙烯、馬林酸酐、鄰苯二甲酸酐、酚、乙二醇、1,4-丁二醇；塑膠原料如ABS、PS、PP、HDPE、LDPE、LLDPE、PMMA、EVA、PVC、TPE、POM、PBT、TPU、PC、PA-6；添加劑如DOP、DINP、DIDP、DOA、TOTM、氯化蠟、環氧大豆油、PVC安定劑；溶劑如甲苯、甲醇、IPA、丁醇、丙酮、MEK、MIBK、DMF、電子級IPA、電子級DMK；油品如低硫燃料油、基礎油、白油、台塑潤滑油。下游應用涵蓋塗料稀釋劑、PU塗料、接著劑、壓克力樹脂、不織布用樹脂、紡織漿料、UV油墨、電子零件、風扇、齒輪、包裝材料、玩具、工廠鍋爐用油、潤滑油等。公司優勢在多產品線一次購足、儲槽與倉儲配送、兩岸及東南亞通路布局。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025年：公司2025上半年合併營收42.82億元、年增8.46%，但毛利率降至3.98%，稅前淨利2,572.5萬元，EPS 0.08元，主要受市場競爭、關稅不確定、匯兌與金融商品評價損失影響。2025年公司投資設立泰國子公司，目標增加營業據點並拓展東南亞化學品、溶劑等業務。2026年截至5月，公開營收資料顯示5月合併營收7.73億元、年增18.1%，1至5月累計約40億元，顯示營收較2025同期回溫，但獲利仍需觀察毛利率、庫存評價、匯率及業外投資收益。2027至2028年：公開法說與新聞指出石化產業仍面臨中國大陸新增產能、全球供過於求、終端需求未完全復甦與客戶剛需採購的壓力，業界預期供需可能到2028年才較有機會平衡；因此元禎本業中期成長動能主要來自東南亞新據點、工程塑膠導入電子材料應用、產品組合優化、台灣與中國既有客戶維繫及新客戶開發。主要風險為石化景氣循環下行、產品價格下跌、毛利率壓縮、關稅與貿易保護、匯率波動、油價波動、供應商合約變動、應收帳款與庫存管理，以及業外投資損益造成獲利波動。
Supply Chain
- 台灣塑膠工業股份有限公司 1301 上游石化與塑膠原料供應商；公開資料稱元禎與台塑簽有銷售合約，且早期報導列為主要供應商來源。
- 台塑石化股份有限公司 6505 上游油品與石化原料供應商；公開資料稱元禎與台塑化簽有銷售合約，法說會油品項目亦列台塑潤滑油。
- 國喬石油化學股份有限公司 1312 上游石化原料供應商；公開資料稱元禎與國喬簽有銷售合約。
- 磐亞股份有限公司 4707 上游化工原料供應商；公開資料稱元禎與磐亞簽有銷售合約，早期報導亦列為主要供應商來源。
- 長春集團 上游化工與工程塑膠原料供應來源；長春集團為未上市集團，故stock_id為null。
- 榮化／李長榮化工相關體系 早期公開報導列為元禎主要供應商來源；榮化1704已非現行台股上市櫃普通股，故stock_id為null。
- 台灣石化合成股份有限公司 早期公開報導列為主要供應商來源；未確認為台股上市櫃公司，故stock_id為null。
- 塗料、樹脂、接著劑、油墨與紡織化學客戶 下游客戶群，使用元禎化學品與溶劑製造塗料稀釋劑、PU塗料、接著劑、壓克力樹脂、不織布用樹脂、紡織漿料、UV油墨等；公司未公開主要客戶名稱。
- 電子零件、汽車零組件、包裝材料與玩具製造商 下游客戶群，使用ABS、PS、PP、PE、PMMA、EVA、PVC、PC、POM、TPU等塑膠原料；公司未公開主要客戶名稱。
- 工業鍋爐、潤滑油與基礎油使用客戶 下游客戶群，使用低硫燃料油、基礎油、白油、潤滑油等油品；公司未公開主要客戶名稱。
- 中國大陸與東南亞化工通路及終端製造客戶 地區型下游市場；2024年中國大陸營收比重25%、其他地區12%，2025年成立泰國子公司以拓展東南亞業務。
Competitors
- 勝一化工股份有限公司 1773 MoneyDJ列為國內化工原料通路同業；產品含溶劑及電子級化學品，與元禎部分溶劑、化學品通路重疊。
- 中華化學工業股份有限公司 1727 同屬化學類股，產品包含基礎與特用化學品；與元禎部分化學品應用市場重疊，但中華化偏製造，元禎偏通路物流。
- 東鹼股份有限公司 1708 同屬化學類股，部分化工原料與通路市場具可比性；業務結構與元禎不同。
- 台灣硝子工業股份有限公司 1724 同屬化學類股，StockFeel列為元禎同業競爭對手之一；實際產品重疊程度有限。
- 奇鈦科技股份有限公司 3430 同屬其他化學相關上市櫃公司，部分特用化學品市場可比較；奇鈦科偏製造，元禎偏代理與物流。
Sources（11）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.