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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 1904 正隆. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=1904
1904
steady quality, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 正隆 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 51th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.1%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 41th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 77th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 8.6% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +27% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 富邦-建國 has accumulated 4,632 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 3,516 lots, has sold 26%, 2,590 left, ~32 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.38pp, mid holders -2, retail -1.10pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -304 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 富邦-建國 +4,632
- 美商高盛 +3,672
- 台灣摩根士丹利 +3,077
- 富邦-南屯 +2,265
- 新加坡商瑞銀 +2,205
- 摩根大通 +1,510
Distributing
- 凱基-台北 2,590 left
- 美林 92 left
- 第一金-光復 262 left
- 台新 123 left
- 元大-天母 119 left
- 康和-嘉義 201 left
Desks
- 永豐金-竹科 -3,015
- 華南永昌-高雄 -1,100
- 港商野村 -1,002
- 元大-萬華 -771
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 646 | +6.8% | +6.3% | 63.2% | -2% |
| 20-40 | 474 | +36.7% | +24.3% | 86.5% | +13.6% |
| 40-60 | 523 | +17.3% | +9.3% | 75.7% | 0% |
| 60-80 You are here | 617 | +16.1% | +15.9% | 69.9% | +6.5% |
| 80-100 | 739 | -12.4% | -11% | 15.3% | -36.9% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 18.85, at the 76.6th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 661 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 0.1%, win rate 36%, lagged the market by 12.2%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
31 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.21%, win rate 65.5%, beating the market by +0.64 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
20 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.21%, win rate 52.6%, beating the market by -0.12 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
65 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.41%, win rate 62.5%, beating the market by +0.13 pts on average.
What does 正隆 do? Company profile
Overview
1904 對應證券為正隆股份有限公司普通股，屬台灣證券交易所上市造紙類股。公司成立於 1959-02-04，上市日期為 1971-09-10，總部位於新北市板橋區民生路一段 1 號；董事長為鄭人銘，副董事長鄭舒云，總經理張清標，簽證會計師為安侯建業聯合會計師事務所。官方基本資料與 Yahoo 股市顯示股本約新台幣 110.83 億元、已發行普通股約 1,108,274,522 股。員工規模方面，公司永續職場頁揭露截至 2024 年底主要營運據點台灣、中國大陸、越南合計員工 6,785 人，其中台灣母公司 3,627 人。公司自述為全球百大紙業之一，於台灣、中國大陸、越南設有 5 座造紙廠及 18 座紙器廠，全集團紙張及紙板年產能逾 250 萬噸、紙器年產能超過 19 億平方米、再生白漿年產能 6.6 萬噸。主要股東及董監持股方面，官方第 19 屆董事當選公告列示山富貿易持有 73,359,078 股、山發股份有限公司 27,236,182 股、鄭人銘 17,432,194 股、民豐塑膠 16,413,611 股、陳彥豪 11,820,692 股、鄭舒云 11,676,197 股；此為董事選任時持股，不完全等同全部前十大股東。
Business
正隆以造紙及紙業加工為核心，採一貫化垂直整合模式，將回收廢紙、紙漿等原料製成工業用紙、紙板，再進一步加工為瓦楞紙板、瓦楞紙箱、美妝紙箱、防水紙箱、紙棧板及預印包材；並經營文化用紙、白卡紙板、家庭用紙與紙品包材等業務。公司工業用紙據點包括台灣大園、新竹、后里及越南平陽，官方產品頁稱工業用紙年產能超過 210 萬噸，為台灣最大工業用紙供應商。紙器業務服務食品、電子、消費品、製造、電商物流等包裝與運輸需求，並提供 OEM 與 ODM 包裝設計加值服務。家庭用品方面，1993 年進入台灣家庭用紙市場，1995 年推出春風 Andante，後續併購天隆造紙廠並推出情人、雪柔等品牌，2009 年推出蒲公英環保家庭用紙，產品含衛生紙、面紙、廚房紙巾、擦手紙、濕拭衛生紙及環保家庭用品。MoneyDJ 2026 年 5 月更新資料顯示，2025 年產品營收比重約為紙器 53%、紙板 34%、紙張 11%；區域營收約台灣 67%、越南 26%、中國大陸 7%。主要原料為紙漿及廢紙，商業模式重點在回收循環、低碳製程、造紙紙器一貫化、區域化生產與對品牌客戶提供包裝解決方案。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025 年展望與實績：2025 年上半年仍受美國政策變動、中國內需疲弱、紙業供過於求、匯率與能源成本波動影響；公司於 2025 年法說新聞稿表示下半年隨景氣逐步回溫抱持審慎樂觀，並持續導入智慧製造、強化低碳永續商機。2025 年全年合併營收約新台幣 429.85 億元、年減約 4.9%，但稅後淨利約 7.99 億元，年增約 21.7%，反映成本結構與越南市場改善。2026 年展望：公司與媒體報導均指出台灣與中國市場需求逐步回溫、越南市場持續成長，越南平陽造紙廠第三期工紙產能已於 2026 年投產，使平陽基地朝百萬噸級低碳循環造紙基地發展；南越濱吉廠第二條紙器產線啟用，北越寧平省第六座紙器廠規劃 2027 年完工，未來越南紙器總年產能可望突破 10 億平方米。2027 至 2028 年推估展望：若北越新紙器廠如期完工並順利爬坡，越南紙器與工紙協同效益、東南亞電子與出口包裝需求、全球供應鏈重組將是主要成長動能；公司低碳、智慧、循環策略，包括 3R PLUS 減碳製造價值鏈、AI 智慧產銷與智能汽電、沼氣綠電、后里 120 噸級生質能汽電共生系統，將有助於降低燃煤依賴、因應碳費及提升能源效率。主要風險包括全球紙業產能過剩、廢紙與紙漿價格波動、能源價格與匯率波動、中國市場需求復甦不確定、越南擴產爬坡進度、關稅及地緣政治、環保法規與碳成本、人事成本上升及終端消費疲弱。2027 至 2028 的具體財務數字未見公司公開指引，相關敘述為依公司已揭露投資計畫與產業趨勢推估。
Supply Chain
- 國內廢紙回收體系與國際紙漿供應商 正隆重要原料為廢紙及紙漿；公司未在公開頁面逐名揭露重大單一供應商，故以原料類別描述。
- 維美德 Valmet 芬蘭造紙及能源設備供應商；正隆揭露與其合作於后里旗艦廠建置生質能汽電共生系統，非台股掛牌公司。
- 山隆通運股份有限公司 2616 正隆集團關係企業，業務含運輸、倉儲及能源通路；可支援集團物流與供應鏈服務，但本次未確認其對正隆營收或採購占比。
- 國際品牌與包裝客戶 正隆官方稱為多家國際知名品牌綠色包裝夥伴，紙器產品供食品、電子、消費品、製造與物流運輸等終端應用；公開資料未逐名揭露主要客戶。
- 電商、食品、電子與消費品製造業客戶 瓦楞紙箱、紙板、美妝紙箱、防水紙箱、紙棧板及預印服務的下游客群；多為產業類別而非單一可確認掛牌公司。
- 家庭用紙零售與通路消費者 春風、蒲公英、情人、雪柔等家庭用紙品牌透過零售、商用及政府機關綠色採購等通路銷售；未揭露單一主要通路占比。
Competitors
- 永豐餘投資控股股份有限公司 1907 台股上市造紙相關集團；在工業用紙、文化用紙及紙品事業與正隆具競爭關係。
- 榮成紙業股份有限公司 1909 台股上市工業用紙與紙器業者，是正隆在工紙與紙器市場的主要競爭者。
- 中華紙漿股份有限公司 1905 台股上市紙漿、文化用紙及紙品相關業者，與正隆在紙張、紙板及紙漿供應鏈部分領域有競爭或產業關聯。
- 士林紙業股份有限公司 1903 台股上市紙業公司；MoneyDJ 將其列為正隆工業用紙競爭對象之一。
- 寶隆國際股份有限公司 1906 台股上市造紙相關公司，與正隆同屬造紙類股，部分紙品或包裝市場具同業比較關係。
- 永豐實業股份有限公司 6790 台股上市家庭清潔用品與家庭用紙相關業者，於家庭用紙市場與正隆春風、蒲公英等品牌競爭。
- Kimberly-Clark 金百利克拉克為美國上市公司，MoneyDJ 將其列為正隆家庭用紙競爭對象之一；非台股掛牌。
Sources（18）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.