Ask AI to review this stock
Copy the prompt to get recent events, historical reactions, and a short research brief.
Tell your AI:
Help me set up FinLab and analyze 2024 志聯. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=2024
2024
quality needs a look, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 志聯 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
-
Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 35th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.4%.
-
Valuation is high.PE is in the 95th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 91th percentile.
-
Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 7.9% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -12% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 宏遠-館前 has accumulated 312 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 25 lots, has sold 36%, 16 left, ~18 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.30pp, mid holders +0, retail -0.30pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -17 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 宏遠-館前 +312
- 元大-板橋 +72
- 永豐金證券 +51
- 花旗環球 +49
- 富邦-台北 +35
- 台灣摩根士丹利 +34
Distributing
- 凱基-台北 16 left
- 摩根大通 11 left
- 美商高盛 8 left
- 高橋 4 left
- 新光 5 left
- 凱基-台南 1 left
Desks
- 台新-烏日 -177
- 大展 -90
- 華南永昌-淡水 -36
- 富邦-陽明 -25
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 15 | Insufficient data | |||
| 20-40 | 90 | +15.9% | +25.8% | 64.4% | +11.1% |
| 40-60 | 621 | +7.8% | +5.4% | 64.3% | +3.9% |
| 60-80 | 554 | +6.4% | +0.5% | 51.4% | -12.5% |
| 80-100 You are here | 750 | +34.1% | +35.2% | 85.9% | -3% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 202.14, at the 90.9th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
(12d)
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 441 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 11.9%, win rate 66.9%, lagged the market by 14.4%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
25 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.13%, win rate 52%, beating the market by -0.15 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
59 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.49%, win rate 52.8%, beating the market by +3.95 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
31 times historically; 60-day forward avg -1.47%, win rate 35.7%, beating the market by -6.2 pts on average.
What does 志聯 do? Company profile
Overview
志聯工業股份有限公司成立於1973年9月3日，股票代號2024，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，1995年12月30日掛牌上市。總公司與工廠位於桃園市新屋區中興路480號。董事長為潘仲良，總經理為林信安。115年年報列示實收股本新台幣975,000仟元，流通在外普通股97,500,000股；截至115年3月31日員工124人，114年度員工127人。公司主要股東截至115年3月31日包括俊來金屬股份有限公司29.72%、大盛國際投資股份有限公司11.47%、仁河國際投資股份有限公司10.84%、謝小雀9.19%、潘仲良5.85%、朋達國際投資有限公司5.13%、泰怡國際投資有限公司5.03%、謝小雀4.34%、謝嘉珊2.32%；年報主要股東表疑似重複列示謝小雀不同持股口徑，已依原表記錄。114年度不擬發放股利；股利政策原則為可供分配盈餘提撥股息紅利不低於30%，現金股利不低於股利總額30%，惟每股低於0.2元得不分配。
Business
公司專精鋼鐵線材二次加工，承接上游盤元料源，製造與銷售鋼線、鋼棒、退火材、球化線等。114年度產品營收比重為鋼棒類64.3%、鋼線類31.9%、其他盤元買賣與代工3.8%。主要產品用途包括高碳鋼線、低碳鋼線、一般彈簧線、高拉力彈簧線、AP退火線、快削鋼、中碳鋼、合金鋼、不銹鋼、磨光棒等，終端應用涵蓋傘骨、車條、彈簧、華司、鋼釘、鋼纜、鐵釘、鐵絲、螺絲、螺帽、軸心、工具、電子、電腦、機車、自行車、汽車零件、建築與其他工業配件。114年度營收淨額988,898仟元，較113年度1,096,748仟元減少10%；營業毛利67,506仟元，營業淨利6,316仟元，稅後虧損5,884仟元，EPS為-0.06元。114年度銷售地區為內銷698,309仟元、占71%；東南亞113,402仟元、占11%；港陸地區143,766仟元、占15%；東北亞27,356仟元、占3%；其他地區6,065仟元。主要客戶因年報以代號揭露，114年前十大客戶合計約46.38%，最大A客戶占7.16%，公司表示最近二年度無占銷貨總額10%以上之具名客戶；115年第一季V客戶為關係人，占5.21%。商業模式以採購盤元後進行抽線、球化、退火、矯直、磨光、酸洗、檢測等加工，銷售給國內外通路與直接客戶，並持續提高外銷與直接客戶比重。
Outlook 2025–2028
已實現的2025年（民國114年）營運顯示鋼鐵產業仍在整理，市場需求低檔，志聯調整報價政策、處理滯料庫存、提升庫存周轉並施行計畫性生產排程，但拉貨力道偏弱，全年銷售量較前一年下降約6%。2026年（民國115年）公司營業目標為銷售量值較114年度持平，經營方針為維持並優化營收結構、強化市場競爭與客戶黏著度、推進新市場與產品導入、強化成本與風險管理；重要產銷政策包括提高產品廣度與利潤、拓展外銷及直接客戶比重、開發大線徑汽機車扣件用球化線材與小線徑油封用線材。公司規劃導入新式熱處理設備以增加產品與服務項目，持續投入品質檢測設備，並增設營業及物流據點以強化服務即時性。2027至2028年較可合理延伸的展望為：若全球降息、基建、低碳轉型、AI算力、低軌衛星、無人機、新能源與軍工產業帶動製造業復甦，鋼線鋼棒需求有機會中期成長；但公司仍面臨產品過度競爭、原料成本占營收比重高、鋼價與匯率波動、庫存流動性、資本額相對同業大造成EPS壓力、人力老化與募才不易、關稅政策與地緣政治不確定性等風險。上述2027至2028內容屬依公司2026展望與產業趨勢推估，非公司正式財測。
Supply Chain
- 中國鋼鐵股份有限公司 2002 主要上游盤元供應商；年報表示國內進貨以中鋼為主，供料品質與穩定度高，並列為快削鋼盤元、高碳鋼盤元、合金鋼盤元、中碳鋼盤元供應商。
- 豐興鋼鐵股份有限公司 2015 上游盤元供應商；年報列為快削鋼盤元供應商，供料合約每月簽訂一次。
- British Steel 英國鋼廠，年報列為快削鋼盤元與高碳鋼盤元供應商，非台股掛牌。
- Saarstahl 德國鋼廠，年報列為快削鋼盤元供應商，非台股掛牌。
- FN 荷蘭鋼廠，年報列為快削鋼盤元供應商，非台股掛牌。
- Daido Kogyo／大同日本 日本鋼廠，年報列為不銹鋼盤元供應商與供料合約對象，非台股掛牌。
- 日本製鐵 日本上市鋼鐵公司，年報列為合金鋼盤元供應商與供料合約對象，非台股掛牌。
- 東華公司 韓國供應商，年報列為高碳鋼盤元與不銹鋼盤元供應商，非台股掛牌。
- 俊來金屬股份有限公司 年報列為合金鋼盤元供應商之一，同時為志聯主要股東；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
- A客戶 年報以代號揭露之主要銷貨客戶，114年度銷貨70,814仟元、占7.16%；未揭露實名與是否掛牌。
- K客戶 年報以代號揭露之主要銷貨客戶，114年度銷貨67,207仟元、占6.80%；未揭露實名與是否掛牌。
- B客戶 年報以代號揭露之主要銷貨客戶，114年度銷貨60,353仟元、占6.10%；未揭露實名與是否掛牌。
- 汽機車零組件客戶 公司短期發展計畫明列爭取較高附加價值的汽機車零組件客戶訂單；具體客戶未揭露。
- 工業機械、精密零件、自行車、工具、電子、建築等下游產業客戶 公司官網與年報揭露鋼線鋼棒應用範圍；多為未具名下游客戶或通路。
Competitors
- 晉椿工業股份有限公司 2064 年報列為國內主要競爭者之一；上櫃鋼鐵工業，產品含磨光棒、線材等。
- 松和工業股份有限公司 5016 年報列為國內主要競爭者之一；上櫃鋼鐵工業，經營鋼纜、鋼線、棒鋼。
- 木本聯合鋼鐵股份有限公司 年報列為國內主要競爭者之一；隸屬日本木ノ本伸線集團，台灣公司未確認為上市櫃。
- 佳大世界股份有限公司 2033 年報列為國內主要競爭者之一；上市鋼鐵工業。
Sources（12）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.