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2025

千興 Iron & Steel As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, premium valuation.

2 active signals
Revenue ≥20% Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 千興 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 30Quality 82Growth 99Momentum 53Chips 82

Is 千興 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~82% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 4.6%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 87th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 99th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 6.4% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 562.4%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20%, Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.36
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 致和-府前 holds 1,297 lots
  • sellers have 777 lots left, ~123 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +1% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 致和-府前 has accumulated 1,297 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
  • Main distributor 富邦-新板 peaked at 385 lots, has sold 38%, 239 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.16pp, mid holders +0, retail -0.55pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -234 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
致和-府前美商高盛台灣摩根士丹利摩根大通永豐金-板新永豐金證券
Distributing
富邦-新板華南永昌-鳳山凱基-台北新光元大-學甲美好-富順
Desks
own scale
兆豐-松德富邦-樹林國泰-敦南群益金鼎-彰化
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 致和-府前 +1,297
    sold 0%
  • 美商高盛 +534
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +381
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 摩根大通 +286
    sold 4%· still adding
  • 永豐金-板新 +185
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金證券 +170
    sold 16%· still adding

Distributing

  • 富邦-新板 239 left
    sold 38%· paused recently
  • 華南永昌-鳳山 171 left
    sold 55%· paused recently
  • 凱基-台北 180 left
    sold 40%· ~58 sessions to clear
  • 新光 127 left
    sold 40%· ~33 sessions to clear
  • 元大-學甲 30 left
    sold 85%· ~2 sessions to clear
  • 美好-富順 22 left
    sold 88%· paused recently

Desks

  • 兆豐-松德 -682
    unclassified
  • 富邦-樹林 -206
    unclassified
  • 國泰-敦南 -164
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 群益金鼎-彰化 -162
    unclassified
Still selling 777 lots ~123 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +3,092 absorbed / -647 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -10 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 562.37%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

97 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 47.6%, Sample 82, Median -0.5%, Excess +1.3%, Beat mkt rate 43.9%；60-day: Win 45%, Sample 80, Median -2.68%, Excess +1.49%, Beat mkt rate 45%；120-day: Win 49.4%, Sample 79, Median -0.06%, Excess +1.74%, Beat mkt rate 39.2%

120 days after: historical avg +6.03%

20-day +2.19%
60-day +3.16%
120-day +6.03%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
47.6%
45%
49.4%
Sample
82
80
79
Median
-0.5%
-2.68%
-0.06%
Excess
+1.3%
+1.49%
+1.74%
Beat mkt rate
43.9%
45%
39.2%

Over 79 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 6.03%, beat the market by 1.74 pts; win rate 49.4%.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 8%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

30 historical occurrences (since 2012-09-26)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 51.7%, Sample 29, Median +0.25%, Excess +3.25%, Beat mkt rate 41.4%；60-day: Win 42.9%, Sample 28, Median -0.42%, Excess +2.49%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%；120-day: Win 55.6%, Sample 27, Median +2.72%, Excess +5.7%, Beat mkt rate 51.9%

120 days after: historical avg +9.25%

20-day +4.21%
60-day +4.04%
120-day +9.25%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
51.7%
42.9%
55.6%
Sample
29
28
27
Median
+0.25%
-0.42%
+2.72%
Excess
+3.25%
+2.49%
+5.7%
Beat mkt rate
41.4%
42.9%
51.9%

Over 27 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 9.25%, beat the market by 5.7 pts; win rate 55.6%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 217+55.4% +51.3% 90.8% +12.5%
20-40 63+116.7% +118.9% 100% +77.9%
40-60 0Insufficient data
60-80 0Insufficient data
80-100 You are here0Insufficient data

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 88.44, at the 99.3th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+29.1%
Win rate 85.6% Excess +16%
202d
+14.5%
Win rate 50.9% Excess -65.4%
53d
Now
Insufficient data
(0d)
60-day momentum down
+27.9%
Win rate 93.1% Excess +16.3%
116d
Insufficient data
(29d)
Insufficient data
(0d)

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

15 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.33%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +1.27 pts on average.

What does 千興 do? Company profile

鋼鐵工業；不銹鋼冷軋鋼板加工製造與貿易 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2025 對應證券為千興不銹鋼，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，產業別為鋼鐵工業。公司成立於 1972-05-08，股票於 1996-02-08 上市，總部與主要生產據點位於台南市麻豆區工業路 222 號。董事長為魏福全，總經理為邱麗雲。2024 年永續報告書揭露額定資本額新台幣 5,000,000 仟元、實收資本額新台幣 1,726,605 仟元、員工人數 78 人；鉅亨網公司資料亦列示資本額約 17.26 億元、已發行股數約 1.73 億股。公司主要產品為 300 系不銹鋼，服務市場以內銷為主。公司董事與法人持股資料顯示，嘉績百貨企業股份有限公司代表人魏福全為董事長，持股 4,093,489 股；保利都投資股份有限公司代表董事郭穎謙、張淑芬，持股 3,669,296 股；董事黃俊郎持股 3,743,460 股。鉅亨網列示前十大持股約 7.05%，外資持股約 1.44%，股東人數約 30,584 人。

Business

千興主要從事不銹鋼冷軋製品之生產製造、買賣及進出口業務，核心產品為 300 系冷軋不銹鋼捲／板，近年最大宗銷售成品為 304 系列 2D 鋼捲，規格約寬 1300 毫米、厚度 0.3 至 3 毫米。傳統製程為熱軋黑皮鋼捲經退火酸洗產出 No.1 白皮鋼捲，再壓延、冷軋退火酸洗成 2D，必要時調質成 2B；為降低廢棄物、廢水處理成本與瑕疵率，公司已把原料採購策略轉向以冷軋白皮鋼捲 No.1 為主，直接進入後段壓延製程。永續報告書指出公司屬中、上游產業，主要採購熱軋不銹鋼捲，產出 300 系冷軋不銹鋼捲，供應國內下游裁剪業、製管業進一步加工；2024 年供應商類型包括原料採購商 7 家、物料採購商 24 家、工程承包商 14 家，客戶公司行號 15 家。產品應用於金屬業、建築、化工、廚房、機械、家電器具等；MoneyDJ 亦列示 304、304L、316、316L 等鋼種用途，涵蓋家庭器具、汽車零組件、醫療器械、建築材料、化工設備、淨水與海水設備、食品工業等。公司揭露內銷比率約 100%，MoneyDJ 對 2024 年銷售區域整理為台灣約 99%。公司未在可查證公開資料中揭露明確產品營收佔比；因此不以未確認比例填列。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 展望偏循環復甦與營運改善型，而非高成長擴產型。2025 年法說摘要指出，公司面臨全球貿易壁壘、產能過剩與中國低價競爭壓力，2025Q2 受美國對等關稅、匯率波動與存貨跌價影響，營業虧損擴大；2025Q3 透過新團隊調整購料策略、去化高成本庫存、優化產品組合，營業虧損由 Q2 約新台幣 1.3762 億元收斂至 Q3 約 3,327 萬元。2026 年公司提出四大方針：掌握經濟情勢以度過關稅危機、擴展商機增加本業收入、優化產品品質提升營運績效、推動節能減碳邁向淨零。產業面，2026 年初國內不銹鋼盤價在鎳等原料行情推升下出現漲價循環，燁聯 304 系列調漲後，市場預期唐榮、華新麗華等跟進，若價格可順利傳導至中下游，千興有機會改善售價與庫存評價；公開資訊觀測站重大訊息轉載資料亦顯示 2026 年 5 月單月營收較去年同期大幅成長、2026Q1 營收年增 96.37%，顯示短期市況已有改善跡象。中長期成長動能包括：原料策略改以 No.1 白皮鋼捲降低處理成本與品質風險、開發新客戶與尋回舊客戶、產品精緻化與差異化、老舊設備汰換以因應節能減碳與 CBAM。主要風險包括：美國與歐盟鋼鐵貿易保護、歐盟 CBAM 增加出口成本、亞洲新增產能與中國供給過剩造成價格壓力、鎳價與不銹鋼價格波動、台幣匯率、產能利用率不足導致單位成本偏高，以及公司規模較小、客戶與產品集中度較高。2027 至 2028 未見公司提出量化財測或明確擴產計畫，相關展望屬依產業循環與公司公開策略推估，應視未來盤價、需求、產能利用率與關稅政策變化修正。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 燁聯鋼鐵股份有限公司 國內不銹鋼上游與冷軋供應鏈重要廠商，2026 年初為 304 系列盤價領漲者；千興主要採購熱軋或 No.1 白皮不銹鋼捲，公開資料未確認燁聯為千興特定供應商，列為產業鏈上游參考。
  • 唐榮鐵工廠股份有限公司 2035 國內不銹鋼鋼廠與冷軋不銹鋼主要生產者之一，市場預期盤價跟隨燁聯調整；公開資料未確認為千興特定供應商，列為上游／同業供應鏈參考。
  • 華新麗華股份有限公司 1605 國內不銹鋼及特殊鋼相關廠商，亦為冷軋不銹鋼主要生產者之一；公開資料未確認為千興特定供應商，列為上游原料與同業供應鏈參考。
  • 中國大陸與印尼不銹鋼鋼廠 MoneyDJ 整理指出千興主要原料熱軋不銹鋼捲供應商除國內廠商外，亦包含中國大陸、印尼等國外廠商；未揭露個別公司名稱，故 stock_id 為 null。
  • 天然氣與電力供應商 千興生產製程主要能源為外購電力與天然氣；公開資料未揭露具名供應商，列為能源上游。
Downstream
  • 國內裁剪業者 永續報告書指出千興 300 系冷軋不銹鋼捲供應國內下游裁剪業進一步加工；未揭露具名客戶。
  • 國內製管業者 永續報告書指出千興產品供應國內製管業進一步加工；未揭露具名客戶。
  • 允強實業股份有限公司 2034 不銹鋼管與加工下游代表公司；媒體報導將允強列為不銹鋼漲價傳導受惠中下游廠商，未確認為千興直接客戶。
  • 彰源企業股份有限公司 2030 不銹鋼管與加工下游代表公司；媒體報導列入不銹鋼市況改善可能受惠者，未確認為千興直接客戶。
  • 新鋼工業股份有限公司 2032 不銹鋼裁剪、加工與流通相關公司；媒體報導列入不銹鋼市況改善可能受惠者，未確認為千興直接客戶。
  • 大成不銹鋼工業股份有限公司 2027 不銹鋼流通與加工相關公司；媒體報導列入不銹鋼市況改善可能受惠者，未確認為千興直接客戶。
  • 金屬、建築、化工、廚房、機械、家電器具等終端應用產業 千興冷軋不銹鋼材料終端用途廣泛，包含建築材料、廚具、機械、家電、化工設備、汽車零組件、醫療器械等；多為應用產業分類而非單一公司。

Competitors

  • 唐榮鐵工廠股份有限公司 2035 MoneyDJ 與千興永續報告書均列為國內冷軋不銹鋼供應商／主要生產者之一，與千興在冷軋不銹鋼捲板市場競爭。
  • 燁聯鋼鐵股份有限公司 國內不銹鋼龍頭與冷軋不銹鋼主要生產者之一，盤價具指標性；與千興產品在不銹鋼捲板市場有競爭與價格連動。
  • 華新麗華股份有限公司 1605 國內不銹鋼及特殊鋼主要廠商之一，MoneyDJ 列為冷軋不銹鋼捲主要生產者之一。
  • 東盟開發實業股份有限公司 MoneyDJ 與千興永續報告書列為國內冷軋不銹鋼主要供應商／生產者之一；未查得台股上市櫃代號，stock_id 設為 null。
  • 運錩鋼鐵股份有限公司 2069 不銹鋼加工與流通相關公司；與千興部分終端市場相近，且同受不銹鋼盤價與需求循環影響，但公開資料未列為千興核心冷軋直接競爭者，故屬延伸同業。
  • 允強實業股份有限公司 2034 不銹鋼管與加工大廠，屬中下游加工同業／客戶型競合關係，與千興直接產品不完全相同。
Sources（10）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.