Skip to main content
Free trial

Ask AI to review this stock

Copy the prompt to get recent events, historical reactions, and a short research brief.

Tell your AI:

Help me set up FinLab and analyze 2030 彰源. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=2030

No install, open FinLab Studio

2030

彰源 Iron & Steel As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 彰源 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 61Quality 64Growth 79Momentum 68Chips 92

Is 彰源 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 56th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.4%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 59th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 76th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 11.5% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 37.9%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.90
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 凱基-台北 holds 3,285 lots
  • sellers have 796 lots left, ~29 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +13% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 凱基-台北 has accumulated 3,285 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美林 peaked at 445 lots, has sold 56%, 194 left, ~29 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +3.27pp, mid holders +4, retail -2.91pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -198 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
凱基-台北台灣摩根士丹利摩根大通美商高盛(牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐致和-府前
Distributing
美林元大-斗六永豐金-竹科凱基-中港富邦-北港元富-城東
Desks
own scale
元大-台中中港台新-台南兆豐-公益玉山證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 凱基-台北 +3,285
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +1,967
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 摩根大通 +1,295
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美商高盛 +1,185
    sold 4%
  • (牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐 +1,051
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 致和-府前 +1,002
    sold 4%

Distributing

  • 美林 194 left
    sold 56%· ~29 sessions to clear
  • 元大-斗六 228 left
    sold 44%· ~17 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金-竹科 59 left
    sold 76%· paused recently
  • 凱基-中港 76 left
    sold 67%· ~5 sessions to clear
  • 富邦-北港 34 left
    sold 82%· paused recently
  • 元富-城東 86 left
    sold 51%· paused recently

Desks

  • 元大-台中中港 -963
    unclassified
  • 台新-台南 -431
    unclassified
  • 兆豐-公益 -425
    unclassified
  • 玉山證券 -352
    unclassified
Still selling 796 lots ~29 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +5,200 absorbed / -784 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 37.91%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

68 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 47.1%, Sample 51, Median -0.27%, Excess +0.23%, Beat mkt rate 33.3%；60-day: Win 47.1%, Sample 51, Median -1.26%, Excess +0.38%, Beat mkt rate 33.3%；120-day: Win 31.4%, Sample 51, Median -9.09%, Excess -1.07%, Beat mkt rate 27.5%

120 days after: historical avg +0.01%

20-day +0.48%
60-day +2.16%
120-day +0.01%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
47.1%
47.1%
31.4%
Sample
51
51
51
Median
-0.27%
-1.26%
-9.09%
Excess
+0.23%
+0.38%
-1.07%
Beat mkt rate
33.3%
33.3%
27.5%

Over 51 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 0.01%, lagged the market by 1.07 pts; win rate 31.4%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 703-1.9% -7.3% 29.7% -13.5%
20-40 260-8.3% -13.7% 11.2% -14.9%
40-60 234+24.8% +20.6% 60.3% -22.2%
60-80 You are here338+18% -9.6% 39.1% -10.6%
80-100 493+64.6% +2.6% 53.1% +40.6%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 27.95, at the 75.6th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-1.3%
Win rate 37% Excess -5.2%
416d
-0.6%
Win rate 25.8% Excess -7.3%
124d
Now
+36.6%
Win rate 57.1% Excess +21.7%
457d
60-day momentum down
0%
Win rate 47.3% Excess -4.6%
490d
+6.3%
Win rate 44.8% Excess -11.5%
279d
+8.4%
Win rate 54.5% Excess -11.6%
382d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 457 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 36.6%, win rate 57.1%, beat the market by 21.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

17 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.2%, win rate 43.8%, beating the market by +6.16 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

60 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.68%, win rate 48.3%, beating the market by -3.54 pts on average.

What does 彰源 do? Company profile

鋼鐵工業；不銹鋼管與不銹鋼捲板中游加工製造 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2030 對應證券為彰源企業股份有限公司普通股，簡稱彰源，英文簡稱 FROCH，市場別為上市。公司成立於 1984/10/05，掛牌上市日期為 1998/12/24，總部位於雲林縣斗六市工業區工業路 122 號，統一編號 60330130。董事長與總經理均為張炳耀，發言人為張鑫達。實收資本額約新台幣 28.05 億元，已發行普通股 280,526,027 股，無特別股。113 年報揭露 2025/03/31 從業員工合計 890 人，其中間接人員 468 人、直接人員 422 人。主要股東依 114 年股東會揭露包含鑫捷欣股份有限公司持股 10.05%、張鑫達本人 7.72%另配偶及未成年子女 0.30%、張炳耀本人 6.26%另配偶及未成年子女 2.99%、張力伸 4.80%、李秀妙本人 2.99%另配偶及未成年子女 6.26%、力捷欣股份有限公司 2.97%、彰源企業股份有限公司庫藏股 1.36%等。重要子公司與海外布局包含無錫彰源金屬製品、無錫彰源不銹鋼、彰源蘇州、彰源摩洛哥等，集團業務涵蓋製造、買賣與投資。

Business

彰源為不銹鋼產業中游廠商，主要從事配管用不銹鋼管、機械構造用不銹鋼管、不銹鋼角鋼、不銹鋼捲板買賣與受託加工。113 年度合併銷售金額新台幣 123.98284 億元，產品比重為不銹鋼管 101.78890 億元、占 82.10%；不銹鋼捲板 21.91626 億元、占 17.68%；其他 0.27768 億元、占 0.22%。主要產品用途：構造管用於一般機械構造、裝飾家具、欄杆、防盜鐵窗、衛生用具、熱交換器、乳酪業等；配管用於耐腐蝕、耐高溫、耐壓機械構造、石化、食品、造紙、染整與家庭熱水管；鋼板用於建築、家具與裝潢。113 年銷售區域為內銷 40.65%、亞洲外銷 31.64%、美洲 10.41%、歐洲 9.75%、其他 7.55%；公司年報說明最近二年度無任一客戶占銷貨總額 10% 以上，內銷客戶數千家、外銷通路遍及上百個國家，商業模式以採購冷熱軋不銹鋼捲板後製造成不銹鋼管與相關加工品，並透過國內客戶、貿易商及海外銷售網路分散市場。核心競爭力包含 1/4 英吋至 84 英吋完整管徑產品線、線上拋光與線上退火等自動化製程、大管徑與厚管壁開發、JIS/TUV/ISO 等品質認證，以及焊接不銹鋼管外銷量在台灣出口量中的高占比。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年公司年報設定銷售計畫為不銹鋼管 138,000 公噸、不銹鋼捲板 36,000 公噸、合計 174,000 公噸，經營重點為提高高附加價值不銹鋼管銷售、擴大產品項目、拓展外銷市場與爭取國內重大投資訂單，同時加強庫存管理、提高存貨週轉率、降低生產成本與費用。2025 年風險與變數包含美國關稅保護政策不確定性、中國不銹鋼供需失衡是否改善、俄烏戰爭停火後基建與房屋修復可能帶來鋼材需求，以及鎳價與不銹鋼價格波動。2026 年依公司 115 年 5 月法說摘要，2026Q1 合併營收約新台幣 26.37 億元、毛利率約 15%，公司對營運持審慎樂觀，關鍵因素為全球景氣回升、鎳價穩定、匯率穩定與中國出口管制對供需結構的影響。中長期重點為摩洛哥新廠，土地約 9 萬平方公尺，預計 2026 年底至 2027 年初投產，目的在服務歐洲、非洲與周邊市場，降低關稅與物流距離的劣勢。2027 至 2028 年展望主要取決於摩洛哥廠投產爬坡、歐洲與非洲接單能力、全球不銹鋼需求復甦、公共工程與民間投資、食品/化工/石化/機械/營建應用需求，以及鎳價與匯率管理；潛在挑戰包含國際貿易壁壘、海運與地緣政治風險、原料鎳價波動、台灣工資與製造成本上升、中國大陸市場景氣與同業價格競爭。2027-2028 部分屬根據已揭露擴廠時程與產業趨勢所作推估，未見公司提供明確財務預測。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 燁聯鋼鐵股份有限公司 國內不銹鋼捲主要供應商之一；公司年報列為國內不銹鋼捲供應廠商，非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 華新麗華股份有限公司 1605 國內不銹鋼捲主要供應商之一，彰源年報及風險說明均提及主要向燁聯及華新麗華採購。
  • 山西太鋼不銹鋼股份有限公司 國外不銹鋼原料供應來源之一；中國大陸上市公司，非台股上市櫃。
  • 福建福欣特殊鋼有限公司 國外不銹鋼原料供應來源之一；中國大陸企業，非台股上市櫃。
  • 鎳及不銹鋼冷熱軋捲板供應鏈 不銹鋼主要原料包含鎳與冷、熱軋不銹鋼捲板；鎳價受國際供需影響，是產品售價、存貨評價與毛利率的重要變數。
Downstream
  • 石化業與化工業客戶 使用配管用不銹鋼管，需求來自耐腐蝕、耐高溫與耐壓管路；公司未揭露單一主要客戶名稱，且近二年度無任一客戶占銷貨 10% 以上。
  • 食品、飲料、乳酪與造紙業客戶 使用衛生、耐蝕與管路輸送相關不銹鋼管；屬分散客戶與終端應用，未揭露特定上市櫃客戶。
  • 營建、建築裝潢與公共工程客戶 使用構造管、欄杆、扶手、門窗、鋼板、大樓帷幕、電梯與裝潢材料；公司以內銷數千家客戶與外銷上百國通路分散風險。
  • 機械、運輸工具、金屬加工與五金製品業 使用機械構造用不銹鋼管、熱交換器與加工材料；公司未揭露具名客戶。
  • 海外貿易商及歐洲、亞洲、美洲市場通路 公司透過貿易商與海外銷售網路外銷，113 年外銷合計約 59.35%，區域以亞洲、美洲、歐洲及其他市場為主。

Competitors

  • 允強實業股份有限公司 2034 彰源年報列為國內市場主要競爭對手；同為台股上市不銹鋼管相關廠商。
  • 大成不銹鋼工業股份有限公司 2027 彰源年報列為國外市場主要競爭對手之一；台股上市，營運涵蓋不銹鋼及鋁品流通與加工。
  • 中國大陸及國際不銹鋼管/捲板廠商 年報指出國際關稅壁壘、中國供需與出口政策會影響競爭；未具名且多非台股上市櫃。
Sources（8）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.