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2450
quality needs a look, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 神腦 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 29th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.0%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 42th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 78th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 6.9% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +0% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 第一金-大稻埕 has accumulated 355 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
- Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 407 lots, has sold 57%, 173 left, ~82 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.76pp, mid holders +4, retail -0.82pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -135 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 第一金-大稻埕 +355
- 台灣摩根士丹利 +283
- 美林 +280
- 美商高盛 +170
- 台新證券 +132
- 富邦-頭份 +130
Distributing
- 凱基-台北 173 left
- 陽信-石牌 100 left
- 華南永昌-民權 35 left
- 彰銀 29 left
- 摩根大通 36 left
- 花旗環球 37 left
Desks
- 新光-高雄 -387
- 台新-大裕 -207
- 群益金鼎-新店 -182
- 統一-新竹 -143
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 504 | +20.7% | +22.6% | 97.6% | -2.9% |
| 20-40 | 1014 | -8.4% | -5.4% | 41.8% | -18.1% |
| 40-60 | 595 | -9.2% | -13.5% | 28.9% | -23.1% |
| 60-80 You are here | 516 | +2.2% | +1.5% | 55.6% | -30.5% |
| 80-100 | 414 | -7.7% | -5.4% | 10.6% | -15.4% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 18.99, at the 78.1th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 321 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 4.4%, win rate 24.9%, lagged the market by 11.7%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
21 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8%, win rate 65%, beating the market by +5.29 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
44 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.8%, win rate 56.1%, beating the market by +2.66 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
56 times historically; 60-day forward avg -2.73%, win rate 29.6%, beating the market by -5.81 pts on average.
What does 神腦 do? Company profile
Overview
2450 對應神腦國際企業股份有限公司，為台灣上市普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於 1979/05/18，上市日期為 2001/05/24，總部位於新北市新店區中正路531號2樓。董事長為余政憲，總經理為林保雍，發言人為陳嘉麒。實收資本額約新台幣 25.83 億元，已發行普通股 258,252,657 股。2025 年年報揭露 2025 年合併營收 331.25 億元，本期淨利 4.44 億元，歸屬母公司業主淨利 4.45 億元，EPS 1.72 元；2025 年底至 2026/02/28 員工合計約 2,036 人。主要股東方面，中華電信持股 71,773,155 股、27.79%，為最大股東及母公司；其後包括華順投資 7.94%、坤洲 7.55%、裕祐投資 7.37%、正峯投資 7.36%、正剛投資 5.74%、全方位國際投資 4.21%、林保雍 3.23%、劉永明 2.15%、百翊投資 2.08% 等。公司屬中華電信集團，與中華電信在門號、資費、寬頻、MOD、5G 升轉及門市通路高度綁定。
Business
神腦為通訊與 3C 零售通路商，核心業務是代理、零售與批發通訊商品、手機與周邊配件、家電、資訊商品、生活保健商品，並提供中華電信門號、寬頻、MOD、加值服務申辦、行動裝置保險、手機檢測與維修代送等服務。2025 年業務別收入為：銷貨收入 311.28 億元、占 93.97%；勞務收入 15.16 億元、占 4.58%；維修收入 4.81 億元、占 1.45%。通路包含中華電信特約門市、中華電信營運據點銷售櫃台、神腦經銷商、神腦生活線上購物平台與其他代理商。公司自述全台 17 個縣市與離島共有 241 家門市服務，與中華電信共同提供行動通訊、家用固網、智慧家庭與資費組合銷售。產品品牌與合作範圍涵蓋 Apple、Samsung、Google、OPPO、vivo 等手機品牌，並透過子公司優仕與優銳經營 Apple 授權通路；另代理 sakuyo 等保健品牌，與神準科技 EnGenius 合作網通、AI 監控、AIoT 與企業／家庭網路整合方案。2025 年主要銷貨客戶為中華電信，銷售額 83.31 億元、占銷貨淨額 25.15%；主要供應商中，年報匿名揭露供應商代碼 603165 採購額 95.88 億元、占 33.31%，中華電信採購額 47.44 億元、占 16.48%。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025 年至 2026 年，公司面臨台灣手機換機週期延長、整體消費信心波動、通訊產品價格競爭、高階機種補貼結構改變、促銷資源增加與記憶體等零組件漲價等壓力；2025 年營收仍年增 2.53%，但淨利年減，顯示營收規模維持但毛利結構承壓。成長動能主要來自 AI 手機、折疊手機、高階影像規格升級、iPhone 新機週期、4G 升轉 5G、家電與手機綑綁銷售、配件與保健品等高毛利品類、OMO 全通路與會員精準行銷。公司在 2025 年年報中提到，AI 功能由高階機種向中高階產品擴散，折疊手機滲透率提升，將強化相關代理與產品組合；同時導入 AI 商品推薦、智能導購、AI 體驗專區與會員分群推播。2026 年法說與媒體報導指出，公司目標偏向營收持平或穩健成長，重點放在優化獲利結構、提高手機周邊配件、自有／代理保健品牌與家電合作比重；若 iPhone 18 定價與前代接近，可能帶動手機市場銷售額。2027 至 2028 年展望屬推估：若裝置端 AI、AIoT、智慧家庭、企業網通與二手機／整新機服務持續擴大，神腦可透過中華電信通路與會員資料累積維持零售觸點價值；但若台灣手機銷量持續成熟化、電商與品牌直營通路分流、補貼下降、供應商議價能力強、記憶體與匯率波動、消費降級或高毛利新品導入不如預期，獲利率仍可能受壓。
Supply Chain
- 中華電信 2412 母公司、主要合作夥伴與主要供應商；提供電信門號、寬頻、MOD、加值服務等資費與服務資源，2025 年採購額占神腦進貨淨額 16.48%。
- 年報揭露供應商代碼603165（名稱未揭露） 2025 年最大供應商，採購額 95.88 億元、占進貨淨額 33.31%；年報僅揭露代碼，無法確認實際公司名稱與是否上市櫃。
- Apple Inc. 美國上市公司；神腦子公司優仕與優銳為 Apple 授權經銷體系，銷售 Apple 全系列產品與周邊。
- Samsung Electronics 韓國上市公司；為神腦銷售之主要手機、家電與智慧裝置品牌之一，非台股掛牌。
- 神準科技 3558 關係企業，旗下 EnGenius 品牌與神腦合作企業／家庭網通、AI 監控、AIoT 與網路整合方案。
- Google、OPPO、vivo、LG、Panasonic 等品牌商 國際品牌或非台股掛牌公司；供應神腦通路銷售之手機、家電、智慧裝置與相關產品。
- 中華電信 2412 主要銷貨客戶與通路合作方；2025 年銷貨額 83.31 億元、占神腦銷貨淨額 25.15%，也是母公司。
- 中華電信特約門市與營運據點消費者 終端消費客群，購買手機、配件、家電、資訊商品、保健商品並申辦門號、寬頻、MOD 與加值服務。
- 神腦經銷商與其他代理商 下游批發與零售通路，承接通訊商品、周邊配件、家電、資訊商品及中華電信門號相關業務。
- 神腦生活線上購物平台會員與電商消費者 線上零售客群；購買通訊、家電、資訊、配件、保健保養與日常生活用品。
- 企業與家庭網路用戶 EnGenius 網通、AI 監控、AIoT 與智慧家庭／企業網路整合方案之應用端客戶。
Competitors
- 燦坤 2430 台灣上市 3C、家電、通訊與電腦零售通路商，與神腦在 3C、家電、通訊商品零售端競爭。
- 全國電子 6281 台灣上市家電與 3C 通路商，與神腦在家電、3C、通訊與門市服務場景競爭。
- 聯強國際 2347 台灣上市資訊、通訊與消費電子通路商，偏向代理與分銷，與神腦在手機／3C 通路與供應鏈端部分重疊。
- 精技電腦 2414 台灣上市資訊產品通路與系統整合業者，與神腦在資訊商品、企業客戶與通路代理面有部分競爭。
- 順發電腦 台灣 3C 零售通路，未確認為台股上市櫃公司；與神腦在 3C 零售與消費電子通路競爭。
- 品牌直營與電商平台 包含 Apple、Samsung 等品牌直營店，以及 momo、PChome、蝦皮等電商平台；多數非單一台股上市櫃標的或非台股掛牌，對神腦線上與實體零售形成分流。
Sources（15）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.