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2472

立隆電 Electronic Components As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 立隆電 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 25Quality 73Growth 73Momentum 99Chips 19

Is 立隆電 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~81% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.8%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 71th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 100th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -2.7% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 29.9%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.59
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 國泰證券 holds 2,419 lots
  • sellers have 4,025 lots left, ~57 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +201% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 國泰證券 has accumulated 2,419 lots since the start (sold 8%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 摩根大通 peaked at 4,230 lots, has sold 46%, 2,295 left, ~17 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +5.73pp, mid holders -2, retail -3.85pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -2,841 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
國泰證券國泰-敦南永豐金證券兆豐-北高雄兆豐證券群益金鼎-台北
Distributing
摩根大通富邦證券富邦-仁愛華南永昌-南京凱基-興隆華南永昌
Desks
own scale
花旗環球美商高盛統一-內湖元大-敦南
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 國泰證券 +2,419
    sold 8%
  • 國泰-敦南 +1,040
    sold 9%· still adding
  • 永豐金證券 +953
    sold 5%
  • 兆豐-北高雄 +819
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 兆豐證券 +570
    sold 0%
  • 群益金鼎-台北 +496
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 摩根大通 2,295 left
    sold 46%· ~17 sessions to clear
  • 富邦證券 463 left
    sold 82%· ~9 sessions to clear
  • 富邦-仁愛 216 left
    sold 76%· paused recently
  • 華南永昌-南京 309 left
    sold 42%· ~15 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-興隆 289 left
    sold 33%· ~24 sessions to clear
  • 華南永昌 298 left
    sold 26%· ~57 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 花旗環球 -2,116
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 美商高盛 -1,040
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 統一-內湖 -853
    unclassified
  • 元大-敦南 -778
    unclassified
Still selling 4,025 lots ~57 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,518 absorbed / -2,667 sold sellers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -2,823 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 29.95%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

61 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 49%, Sample 51, Median -0.27%, Excess +1.54%, Beat mkt rate 45.1%；60-day: Win 58.8%, Sample 51, Median +5.04%, Excess +1.19%, Beat mkt rate 41.2%；120-day: Win 54.9%, Sample 51, Median +5.64%, Excess +1.52%, Beat mkt rate 49%

120 days after: historical avg +7.33%

20-day +2.83%
60-day +4.98%
120-day +7.33%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
49%
58.8%
54.9%
Sample
51
51
51
Median
-0.27%
+5.04%
+5.64%
Excess
+1.54%
+1.19%
+1.52%
Beat mkt rate
45.1%
41.2%
49%

Over 51 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 7.33%, beat the market by 1.52 pts; win rate 54.9%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 818+24.5% +18.2% 82.8% +6.3%
20-40 516+42.9% +22.9% 79.1% +17.7%
40-60 792+26.2% +28.4% 75.3% +10.4%
60-80 580+5.4% -3.2% 46.4% -5.7%
80-100 You are here162+18.2% -11.1% 45.1% +13.6%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 42.25, at the 99.8th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+7.3%
Win rate 67.9% Excess -1.7%
502d
+16.1%
Win rate 71.8% Excess +5%
883d
Now
+18.6%
Win rate 56.6% Excess +9.8%
468d
60-day momentum down
+14.7%
Win rate 66.3% Excess +6.7%
676d
+6.4%
Win rate 67.5% Excess +2.4%
366d
+21.1%
Win rate 55.9% Excess +16.2%
93d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 468 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 18.6%, win rate 56.6%, beat the market by 9.8%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

36 times historically; 60-day forward avg +16.4%, win rate 63.9%, beating the market by +10.79 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

63 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.02%, win rate 61.9%, beating the market by +1.1 pts on average.

What does 立隆電 do? Company profile

電子零組件業；被動元件；鋁質電解電容器、固態鋁電容、固液混合鋁電容與鋁箔 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2472 對應證券為立隆電子工業股份有限公司，簡稱立隆電，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於 1976/02/12，總部位於台中市大里區國光路一段 147 號，統一編號 52358985，英文全名 LELON ELECTRONICS CORP.，英文簡稱 LELON。公司於 2000/05/16 上櫃、2001/09/17 上市。董事長兼總經理為吳志銘，發言人為張真卿，代理發言人為林詣盛。實收資本額約新台幣 16.47 億元，已發行普通股 164,735,137 股。2026 年公司法說資料列示資本額約新台幣 16.4 億元、2026 年預估月產能 6.39 億顆，產品包含鋁電解電容器、固液混合鋁電解電容器、固態鋁電解電容器。員工規模方面，2026 年 3 月底法說資料為 2,433 人；2025 年報截至 2025/04/30 為 2,757 人，差異可能來自揭露範圍或期間不同。主要生產與集團據點包括台灣總部、立隆電子惠州、立隆電子科技蘇州、立隆電子泰國春武里府安美德工業園，以及鋁箔關係企業立敦科技。主要股東依 2025 年報 2025/04/30 前十大股東資料，琪發企業股份有限公司持有 25,619,291 股、15.55%，為持股 10% 以上股東；吳中銘本人與配偶未成年子女合計約 5.13%，吳志銘本人與配偶未成年子女合計約 5.15%，另有吳仁銘、吳朱富妹、張正弘及外資保管專戶等列名前十大。公司持有立敦科技股份有限公司 43,731,598 股、29.21%，連同董事、經理人與控制事業綜合持股 33.09%。2025 年合併營收新台幣 112.925 億元，年增 7.7%，歸屬母公司淨利新台幣 14.377 億元，基本 EPS 8.73 元；2026 年 1 至 4 月法說資料列示合併營收新台幣 41.39 億元、年成長約 11%。

Business

立隆電是台灣主要鋁質電解電容器廠，官方年報與 MoneyDJ 均稱其為台灣第一大鋁電解電容器廠。公司早期透過與日本 TOWA、ELNA 合作代工與技術移轉建立技術基礎，現以自有品牌與全球供貨能力服務高階電子產品市場。主要產品為鋁質電解電容器、鋁箔及電子材料；電容器產品線包含導針型、貼片型、牛角型、螺絲型、臥式型鋁質電解電容器，高分子固態鋁質電解電容器，高分子固液混合鋁質電解電容器，以及堆疊型高分子電容器等。2025 年產品營收結構為鋁電解電容器新台幣 75.419 億元、約 66.8%，鋁箔新台幣 37.507 億元、約 33.2%；2026 年 1 至 4 月法說資料列示鋁電解電容器營收新台幣 27.09 億元、約 65%，鋁箔及其他新台幣 14.30 億元、約 35%。鋁質電解電容器在電路中用於濾波、穩壓、耦合、充放電，具體終端應用包括汽車電子、電動車、電源與綠能、工業設備、電信網通、消費性電子與家電、資訊雲端、醫療安防、AI 資料中心與雲端運算。公司商業模式為垂直整合的被動元件製造與銷售：上游透過關係企業立敦科技與外部供應商取得腐蝕箔、化成箔、鋁原箔、導針、鋁殼、橡膠蓋、電解紙、電解液等材料，中游在惠州、蘇州與泰國等地生產鋁電解、固態與混合電容，下游銷售給電子產品設計與組裝廠、汽車電子與車廠供應鏈、電源與伺服器等客戶。2025 年法說資料中的客戶群以應用別揭露，年報則說明最近二年度任一年度中無單一客戶占銷貨總額 10% 以上，因此官方未揭露具名主要客戶；MoneyDJ 產業資料提及主要車用客戶包括特斯拉、比亞迪、蔚來、小鵬、長安等，但此類具名客戶非公司年報逐一確認，應視為第三方產業資訊。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望主軸為高階鋁電容產品升級、AI 資料中心與汽車電子需求、泰國產能以及鋁箔垂直整合。2025 年公司營收突破新台幣 110 億元，鋁電解電容器占比提升至約 66.8%，EPS 8.73 元；毛利率由 2024 年 30.85% 提升至 2025 年 32.04%，顯示高階產品組合改善已有反映。2026 年公司法說資料估計月產能 6.39 億顆，其中惠州廠 3.19 億顆、蘇州科技 2.89 億顆、泰國廠 2026 年預估 0.31 億顆；泰國廠位於春武里府安美德工業園，2025 年報文字稱 2026 年上半年開始陸續投產，2026 Q2 法說簡報則列示預計 2026 年 Q4 量產，兩者可能反映不同投產階段。泰國廠的策略意義在於回應客戶非中國、非台灣產能需求、強化供貨韌性，並提高車用電子應用占比。成長動能包括：AI 伺服器與 AI 資料中心進入高成長期，對耐高溫、高可靠、長壽命、低阻抗與高紋波的固態與混合電容需求增加；汽車電子化、電動車、工業自動化與機器人趨勢帶動高可靠度電容需求；電信網通、雲端設備、綠能電力電子與醫療安防等利基市場擴大；公司持續開發堆疊型高分子電容器、貼片型鋁電容、固態電容、固液混合電容、長壽命與高溫產品，例如 2025 年研發完成 Snap-in LGZ 高 RC 105℃ 2000Hrs 與 LUG 高溫 125℃ 2000Hrs 產品。2026 年以後的關鍵觀察點包括：AI 與高階伺服器平台實際拉貨節奏、泰國廠認證與量產進度、汽車電子客戶設計導入與 IATF-16949/AEC-Q200 可靠度驗證、鋁箔與電解液等原料價格、日系高階電容供應格局、匯率與地緣政治。潛在風險包括一般用途鋁電容供應商眾多且價格競爭激烈，高階市場仍以日系廠商為主；若 AI 伺服器需求、車用認證或泰國廠量產進度不如預期，營收與毛利率改善可能延後；鋁箔等原物料、匯率、電力與水資源、環保與碳排規範、地震水災颱風等氣候風險，均可能影響成本與交貨。2027 至 2028 年未見公司公開量化財測，本段對 2027 至 2028 年僅能根據公司產品策略、產能布局與產業趨勢推估，不能視為公司財務預測。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 立敦科技股份有限公司 6175 上游關係企業與轉投資公司，主要產品為腐蝕箔、化成箔等鋁箔材料；立隆電 2025 年報列示持有立敦科技 29.21%，集團綜合持股 33.09%，為鋁箔垂直整合與成本優勢來源之一。
  • 優艾希傑東陽光（韶關）鋁材銷售有限公司 中國大陸鋁原箔供應商，非台股掛牌；2024 年占立隆電進貨淨額 26.3%，2025 年截至第一季占 21.7%，年報列為實質關係人。
  • KAWATAKE ELECTRONICS 第三方資料列為鋁箔等重要原料供應商之一，非台股掛牌；公司年報未在可查頁面中量化其進貨占比。
  • 導針、鋁殼、套管、橡膠蓋、電解紙、電解液化學品供應商群 鋁電解電容主要材料供應鏈；公司年報說明多數原物料維持兩家以上合格供應商，供應來源尚屬穩定，但未逐一揭露全部供應商名稱。
  • 工業技術研究院及材料設備供應商 研發合作與新材料、新製程設備開發夥伴；工研院非上市櫃公司，材料設備供應商多未具名。
Downstream
  • 電子產品設計及組裝廠 公司年報定義之下游使用者，涵蓋電源、綠能、電信網通、消費性電子、車用電子、資訊雲端、工控與醫療產品；具體公司多未公開揭露。
  • 汽車電子與電動車供應鏈客戶群 下游應用包含汽車電子與電動車；公司法說資料以客戶群分類揭露，MoneyDJ 第三方資料提及特斯拉、比亞迪、蔚來、小鵬、長安等，分屬美國、中國或香港/中國上市或未於台股掛牌，且非公司年報逐一確認。
  • AI 資料中心、雲端運算與伺服器電源供應鏈 下游高階應用，使用固態、固液混合與高可靠度鋁電容；近期新聞稱公司已切入 AI 伺服器供應鏈並預期高階混合電容出貨，但具名客戶與平台訂單細節未由公司完整公開。
  • 電信網通、工業設備、電力電子、綠能、醫療安防客戶群 公司法說與年報列示之主要終端應用市場；官方以應用群組揭露，未揭露單一客戶超過銷售 10%，也未完整揭露各客戶名稱。

Competitors

  • 凱美電機 2375 台股上市被動元件與鋁質電解電容相關廠商；MoneyDJ 將凱美列為立隆電國內競爭對手。
  • 鈺邦科技 6449 台股上市高分子固態電容與被動元件廠，與立隆電在高階固態/混合電容部分應用存在競爭或替代關係；此為產業比對推估。
  • 國巨 2327 台股上市被動元件大廠，主要強項為 MLCC、晶片電阻與整合通路，與立隆電不是完全同產品線，但在廣義被動元件與客戶資源上具競爭關係。
  • 華新科 2492 台股上市被動元件廠，主要產品與立隆電不完全相同，但在被動元件市場與部分終端應用中具競爭關係。
  • 金山電子 MoneyDJ 列為國內鋁質電解電容競爭廠商；未確認為台股上市櫃公司，因此 stock_id 設為 null。
  • Nippon Chemi-Con 日本鋁電解電容大廠，非台股掛牌；MoneyDJ 與公司年報均指出高階鋁電容市場以日系廠商為主。
  • Nichicon 日本鋁電解電容大廠，非台股掛牌；為高階鋁電容與車用/工業應用主要國際競爭者。
  • Rubycon 日本鋁電解電容大廠，非台股掛牌；MoneyDJ 列為主要國外競爭對手。
  • Panasonic / Sanyo 系列電容事業 日本系高階電容供應商，非台股掛牌；MoneyDJ 提及 SanyoChem，市場上亦常以 Panasonic/Sanyo 系列高分子電容與台廠產品比較。
Sources（10）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.