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2610

華航 Shipping As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 華航 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 78Quality 76Growth 72Momentum 57Chips 78

Is 華航 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 65th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 5.5%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 4th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 13th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 5.1% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 27.7%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.17
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 美林 holds 71,721 lots
  • sellers have 12,501 lots left, ~536 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +2% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 美林 has accumulated 71,721 lots since the start (sold 6%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 國泰-敦南 peaked at 13,602 lots, has sold 49%, 6,953 left, ~17 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -1.58pp, mid holders -33, retail +1.75pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -127,544 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
美林美商高盛凱基-台北統一中國信託富邦-台中
Distributing
國泰-敦南元大-大雅國泰-台中元大-虎尾華南永昌-世貿合庫-桃園
Desks
own scale
元大證券摩根大通港商麥格理台灣摩根士丹利
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 美林 +71,721
    sold 6%
  • 美商高盛 +48,973
    sold 10%· still adding
  • 凱基-台北 +23,256
    sold 10%· still adding
  • 統一 +17,847
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 中國信託 +6,553
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-台中 +4,950
    sold 16%

Distributing

  • 國泰-敦南 6,953 left
    sold 49%· ~17 sessions to clear
  • 元大-大雅 3,398 left
    sold 75%· paused recently
  • 國泰-台中 3,465 left
    sold 38%· ~16 sessions to clear
  • 元大-虎尾 868 left
    sold 76%· paused recently
  • 華南永昌-世貿 610 left
    sold 69%· paused recently
  • 合庫-桃園 1,061 left
    sold 31%· paused recently

Desks

  • 元大證券 -81,621
    unclassified
  • 摩根大通 -53,082
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 港商麥格理 -27,500
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -25,060
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 12,501 lots ~536 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +80,034 absorbed / -8,489 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -127,544 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 27.73%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

36 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 35, Median +1.68%, Excess +3.66%, Beat mkt rate 62.9%；60-day: Win 62.9%, Sample 35, Median +6.19%, Excess +9.02%, Beat mkt rate 62.9%；120-day: Win 45.7%, Sample 35, Median -2.34%, Excess +6.3%, Beat mkt rate 34.3%

120 days after: historical avg +12.07%

20-day +3.9%
60-day +11.73%
120-day +12.07%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.1%
62.9%
45.7%
Sample
35
35
35
Median
+1.68%
+6.19%
-2.34%
Excess
+3.66%
+9.02%
+6.3%
Beat mkt rate
62.9%
62.9%
34.3%

Over 35 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 12.07%, beat the market by 6.3 pts; win rate 45.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here177+4.1% +4.7% 67.2% -38.7%
20-40 374-1.2% -0.4% 49.2% -21.7%
40-60 339+5.7% +3.3% 75.2% -13.1%
60-80 464+2.6% -2.9% 45.5% -10.8%
80-100 411+80.2% +73.2% 88.8% +38.3%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 8.54, at the 12.6th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Now
+6.4%
Win rate 47.9% Excess -15.8%
71d
-0.3%
Win rate 51.9% Excess -4.1%
262d
+2.4%
Win rate 36.2% Excess -4.2%
420d
60-day momentum down
+0.2%
Win rate 43.6% Excess -17.2%
385d
+4%
Win rate 67.8% Excess -5.9%
345d
+36.5%
Win rate 63.2% Excess +14.5%
402d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 71 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 6.4%, win rate 47.9%, lagged the market by 15.8%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

15 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.64%, win rate 66.7%, beating the market by +5.63 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

63 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.47%, win rate 39.7%, beating the market by -2.45 pts on average.

What does 華航 do? Company profile

航運業／航空運輸業 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2610 對應證券為台灣證券交易所上市普通股「華航」，公司全名中華航空股份有限公司，英文名 China Airlines Ltd.。公司成立於 1959 年 9 月 7 日，1993 年 2 月 26 日於台灣證券交易所上市，總部位於桃園市大園區航站南路 1 號。董事長為高星潢，總經理為陳漢銘。公開資料顯示實收資本額約新台幣 611.9964937 億元，已發行普通股約 61.19964937 億股。員工規模依 2024 年年報截至 2025 年 3 月 30 日為 11,642 人。主要股東依 2024 年年報截至 2025 年 3 月 30 日包括財團法人中華航空事業發展基金會持股 1,867,341,935 股、約 30.69%，行政院國家發展基金管理會持股 519,750,519 股、約 8.54%，以及華南商業銀行受託保管元大台灣價值高息 ETF 證券投資信託基金專戶持股 185,219,000 股、約 3.04%。公司屬航空運輸集團，旗下與關係企業涵蓋華信航空、台灣虎航、地勤、貨站、空廚、修護、倉儲物流與投資租賃等業務。

Business

華航核心業務為航空客運、航空貨運與郵運，並延伸至地勤服務、代理營業與運務、代理修護、飛機與零組件維修、空廚、倉儲物流、機上免稅銷售、旅遊休閒、租賃與投資等。2024 年合併營收新台幣 2,038.79338 億元，其中客運收入 1,279.19428 億元、占 63%，貨運收入 607.11511 億元、占 30%，其他收入 152.48399 億元、占 7%。2025 年法說會資料顯示合併營收提升至 2,091.4 億元，營業淨利 208.4 億元，歸屬母公司淨利 147 億元，每股盈餘 2.42 元；華航個體 2025 年營業收入 1,790 億元。商業模式上，客運端以台灣桃園樞紐連結東北亞、東南亞、北美、歐洲、大洋洲、中國與港澳等航線，收入來自機票、高艙等、附加服務、會員與異業合作；貨運端以全貨機與客機腹艙並用，收入來自一般貨物、快遞、郵件、半導體與 AI 伺服器相關高價值貨物、電商、醫藥冷鏈、航材與包機／包艙。2024 年客運區域收入以東北亞 450.56 億元、跨太平洋 251.33 億元、東南亞 214.61 億元為主；貨運收入以跨太平洋 392.38 億元為最大來源。2025 年貨運收入 666 億元、年增 10.2%，北美航線約占貨運收入 66%，受惠 AI 與半導體貨運需求。公司具 SkyTeam 聯盟、聯營／共掛班號、台灣地理轉運樞紐、747F 大型貨機與 777F 新世代貨機、CEIV Pharma 醫藥冷鏈認證等競爭基礎。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年主要展望可分為客運復甦常態化、貨運高值化、機隊更新與數位化四條主線。客運方面，全球國際旅運需求仍具韌性，但疫後報復性旅遊高成長已逐步回歸正常，票價與載客率將受航空供給恢復、區域競爭與消費景氣影響；華航策略包括恢復與加密航班、強化東北亞與東南亞區域網絡、北美長程線、歐洲共掛與轉機產品、提升高艙等與附加收入、優化官網與 App 直銷、會員系統與 24 小時客服。貨運方面，AI、半導體、消費電子、汽車零組件、跨境電商、醫藥冷鏈與航材仍是需求核心，2026 年法說會引用 IATA 預估 2026 年全球空運量年增約 2.4%，公司將持續布局北美、歐洲與東南亞貨運網絡，爭取高時效、高單價貨物與包機包艙商機。機隊方面，2025 年起規劃導入 Boeing 787 客機，先前揭露 24 架 787 客機擬於 2025 至 2028 年交付，用於汰換 A330-300 等舊機並改善油耗與產品；A321neo 持續替換 737-800，2025 年 777F 全數到位後貨機運能提升，後續並規劃 777F、777-8F 等貨機。2027 年起 A350-900 客艙翻新可望改善長程線產品一致性。風險與挑戰包括航空燃油價格、美元與新台幣匯率、地緣政治與航路限制、關稅與貿易政策、美國小額包裹政策變動、全球航空供應鏈與交機延遲、飛行與地勤人力不足、維修成本、碳排與 SAF 成本、國內外航空公司競爭加劇、景氣放緩導致旅運與貨運需求不如預期。2028 年以前的獲利增長高度取決於新機交付時程、油價匯率、北美貨運收益、高艙等與附加收入能否抵銷票價正常化壓力。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 台灣中油股份有限公司 主要航空燃油供應商之一，為國營未上市公司；2024 年年報列為第一大供應商，採購金額占比約 11.52%。
  • 台塑石化股份有限公司 6505 航空燃油供應商之一，台灣上市公司；2024 年年報列為主要供應商，採購金額占比約 3.48%。
  • Chevron Corporation 海外航點航空燃油供應商之一，為美國上市公司，非台股掛牌；2024 年年報列為主要供應商，採購金額占比約 3.09%。
  • The Boeing Company 飛機與貨機供應商，包含 787、777F、777-8F、777-9 等機型；為美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
  • Airbus SE 飛機供應商與客艙整合服務商，包含 A321neo、A350-900 客艙升級、A350-1000 訂單等；為歐洲上市公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 桃園國際機場股份有限公司 華航主要樞紐機場與地面營運基礎設施提供者，為未上市公司。
  • Envirotainer 醫藥冷鏈溫控貨櫃與即時監控設備合作／供應商，非台股掛牌。
Downstream
  • 一般旅客與會員客戶 客運主要終端客戶，透過官網、App、旅行社、企業合約與聯盟／共掛航班購買機票及附加服務。
  • 國際物流公司、貨運承攬業者與全球代理 貨運主要通路與客戶群，協助集貨、包艙、轉運與末端配送；年報說明華航與全球跨國代理及整合型快遞業者維持合作。
  • United Airlines Holdings, Inc. 美國上市航空公司，非台股掛牌；年報提及持續探索與 United Airlines 合作以吸引貨源並擴大服務區域。
  • 台灣高科技製造供應鏈 AI、半導體、消費電子與半導體設備為重要貨源與終端應用，年報未揭露個別客戶名稱，故不填特定 stock_id。
  • 醫藥、生技與冷鏈客戶 華航以 CEIV Pharma 認證、溫控貨櫃與冷鏈作業承接疫苗、藥品、生技產品與高規格冷鏈貨物，年報未揭露個別客戶名稱。
  • 跨境電商平台與快遞貨源 電商貨件為貨運需求來源之一，受政策、旺季分散與清關效率影響；年報與法說會未揭露個別平台客戶。

Competitors

  • 長榮航空股份有限公司 2618 台灣上市航空公司，華航在國際客運與貨運市場最主要本土競爭者；2024 年民航局市占資料中長榮航客運市占 24.9%、貨運市占 30.61%，華航客運 21.17%、貨運 36.03%。
  • 星宇航空股份有限公司 2646 台灣上市航空公司，長程與區域客運、高端服務與轉機市場競爭者；2024 年客運市占 7.63%、貨運市占 1.90%。
  • 台灣虎航股份有限公司 6757 台灣上市低成本航空，雖屬華航集團持股關係企業，但在部分區域旅遊航線與票價帶上亦形成競爭；2024 年客運市占 4.38%。
  • 立榮航空股份有限公司 長榮航集團旗下未上市航空公司，在國內線與區域航線市場競爭。
  • 外籍航空公司 包含日韓、東南亞、港澳、中國、歐美與中東航空公司，非台股掛牌；2024 年外籍航空在台灣國際與兩岸客運市占約 40.07%、貨運市占約 30.94%。
  • 國泰航空、新加坡航空、大韓航空、全日空、日航等國際航空公司 非台股掛牌；在東北亞、東南亞、歐美長程轉機、商務旅客、貨運與聯盟網絡上與華航競爭。
Sources（9）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.