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2816

旺旺保 Finance & Insurance As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 旺旺保 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 87Quality 83Growth 82Momentum 68Chips 78

Is 旺旺保 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~82% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 4.8%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 1th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 6th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 5.2% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 27.1%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.52
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 永豐金-嘉義 holds 993 lots
  • sellers have 454 lots left, ~460 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +14% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 永豐金-嘉義 has accumulated 993 lots since the start (sold 7%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 台新-中港 peaked at 339 lots, has sold 32%, 230 left, ~21 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.69pp, mid holders +2, retail -0.76pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -75 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
永豐金-嘉義台灣摩根士丹利日進元大-莒光元大證券凱基-民權
Distributing
台新-中港統一-屏東國泰證券華南永昌-長虹華南永昌台新-屏東
Desks
own scale
摩根大通永豐金-台南元大-大里群益金鼎
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 永豐金-嘉義 +993
    sold 7%
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +573
    sold 19%
  • 日進 +517
    sold 0%
  • 元大-莒光 +468
    sold 2%· still adding
  • 元大證券 +253
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-民權 +244
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 台新-中港 230 left
    sold 32%· ~21 sessions to clear
  • 統一-屏東 134 left
    sold 33%· paused recently
  • 國泰證券 90 left
    sold 55%· ~23 sessions to clear
  • 華南永昌-長虹 46 left
    sold 50%· ~460 sessions to clear
  • 華南永昌 22 left
    sold 69%· ~16 sessions to clear
  • 台新-屏東 9 left
    sold 85%· ~2 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 摩根大通 -346
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 永豐金-台南 -303
    unclassified
  • 元大-大里 -278
    unclassified
  • 群益金鼎 -232
    unclassified
Still selling 454 lots ~460 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,511 absorbed / -244 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

25 historical occurrences (since 2009-04-03)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 50%, Sample 24, Median +0.25%, Excess +0.35%, Beat mkt rate 50%；60-day: Win 47.8%, Sample 23, Median 0%, Excess +7.28%, Beat mkt rate 47.8%；120-day: Win 47.8%, Sample 23, Median -0.96%, Excess +6.8%, Beat mkt rate 43.5%

120 days after: historical avg +14.34%

20-day +1.66%
60-day +9.07%
120-day +14.34%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
47.8%
47.8%
Sample
24
23
23
Median
+0.25%
0%
-0.96%
Excess
+0.35%
+7.28%
+6.8%
Beat mkt rate
50%
47.8%
43.5%

Over 23 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 14.34%, beat the market by 6.8 pts; win rate 47.8%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 27.06%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

51 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 50%, Sample 44, Median +0.17%, Excess +0.44%, Beat mkt rate 38.6%；60-day: Win 61.4%, Sample 44, Median +4.37%, Excess +7.44%, Beat mkt rate 52.3%；120-day: Win 55.8%, Sample 43, Median +2.24%, Excess +8.57%, Beat mkt rate 48.8%

120 days after: historical avg +15.2%

20-day +2.17%
60-day +12.61%
120-day +15.2%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
61.4%
55.8%
Sample
44
44
43
Median
+0.17%
+4.37%
+2.24%
Excess
+0.44%
+7.44%
+8.57%
Beat mkt rate
38.6%
52.3%
48.8%

Over 43 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 15.2%, beat the market by 8.57 pts; win rate 55.8%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here970+3.7% +3.3% 64.6% -10.2%
20-40 416+1.7% -0.3% 48.8% -25.3%
40-60 242+38.7% +22.2% 90.5% +6.7%
60-80 274+54.2% +38.3% 100% +34.8%
80-100 317+6.8% +8.2% 59.3% -19.1%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 5.33, at the 5.7th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Now
+1.6%
Win rate 52.8% Excess -7.4%
725d
+11.5%
Win rate 65.9% Excess -2.2%
252d
+1.2%
Win rate 42.7% Excess -15.7%
218d
60-day momentum down
+0.6%
Win rate 59.4% Excess -6%
599d
+33.3%
Win rate 61.9% Excess +21%
312d
+2.6%
Win rate 53.2% Excess -8.7%
233d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 725 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 1.6%, win rate 52.8%, lagged the market by 7.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

61 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.45%, win rate 57.4%, beating the market by -1.21 pts on average.

What does 旺旺保 do? Company profile

金融保險業；產物保險業 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2816 為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，證券簡稱旺旺保，公司全名旺旺友聯產物保險股份有限公司。公司成立於1963年，股票於1992年5月5日上市，為國內較早上市的產物保險公司之一；2002年併購台灣中國航聯產險，2007年6月由旺旺集團入主並延續旺旺友聯品牌。總公司位於台北市大安區忠孝東路四段219號12樓；董事長洪吉雄，總經理劉自明。依公開資訊與交易所個股資料，實收資本額為新台幣2,236,080,000元，已發行普通股223,608,000股。2024年年報列示截至2025年3月29日員工合計1,111人，2024年度員工合計1,118人；全國服務網路包含總公司、多家分公司、服務中心與通訊處。主要股東依2024年年報停止過戶日股東名冊為蔡合旺事業22.34%、旺嘉事業21.68%、旺旺食品20.88%、台聯電訊1.78%、蔡合源1.67%、李健雄1.11%、陳有慶0.73%、紹源0.56%、花旗託管柏克萊資本SBL/PB投資專戶0.44%、鄭文琦0.44%。信用評等方面，2024年年報揭露中華信評授予twAA，標準普爾與A.M. Best均授予A-等級，展望穩定。

Business

旺旺保為產物保險公司，商業模式是銷售保險契約、收取保費、進行核保與理賠管理，並透過再保險安排移轉部分巨災或集中風險；同時以保險資金進行投資，收益與核保損益共同影響獲利。主要商品分為個人保險與企業保險：個人保險包含汽機車險、住宅火險、旅平險、旅遊不便險、個人與團體傷害險、健康險、微型保險、寵物險等；企業保險包含商業火災保險、責任保險、工程保險、海上保險、貨物運輸保險、航空險、船體險、保證保險、資安保險與綠能相關保險。2024年簽單保費收入約136.56億元，年增11.2%，市占率約5.1%；2024年簽單保費結構依法說資料為任意汽車險70.13億元、51.35%，強制汽車險9.35億元、6.84%，火險21.23億元、15.55%，健康傷害險10.08億元、7.38%，工程險9.75億元、7.14%，意外險8.94億元、6.55%，政策地震險2.72億元、1.99%，運輸險2.98億元、2.18%，航船險1.38億元、1.01%。以年報分類，2024年保費收入較大的險種包含其他財產保險、責任保險、火災保險、傷害保險及強制汽車責任保險。主要銷售地區為台灣，2024年保費以台北市、新北市、台中市、高雄市、桃園等都會區占比較高。公司揭露承保客戶分散，最近二年度未有占營業收入10%以上的重要客戶；通路重點包括車商通路、銀行、壽險公司、保險經紀人/代理人、企業直接業務、網路投保與異業合作。2025年全年EPS依交易所個股資訊為4.66元，2026年第一季EPS為1.78元；2026年前5月月營收相較2025年同期明顯提高，但月營收受認列、投資收益與保費季節性影響，不宜單獨視為承保利潤。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望偏向穩健成長但受天災與金融市場波動約束。公司2024年年報提出2025年度簽單保費目標145億元，較2024年成長約5.9%；2025年法說資料顯示截至2025年第二季簽單保費約75.96億元，其中任意汽車險仍為最大來源，火險、工程險、健康傷害險與意外險亦是重要組成。成長動能包括：一、台灣產險滲透率與風險轉嫁意識提高，車險、責任險、旅平險、企業保險仍具剛性需求；二、旅遊市場常態化帶動旅平險與旅遊不便險需求；三、政府淨零政策、再生能源、太陽光電、離岸風電、電動車、ESG合規、資安風險與供應鏈韌性要求，推升綠能工程險、再生能源設施保險、責任險、資安險與企業風險管理服務；四、公司持續推動網路投保、行動商務、寵物保險自動化核保理賠、旅行業投保資料即時交換、核心系統更新與無紙化流程，有助於提高通路效率與費用控管；五、公司策略上將擴大商業險占比、提高優質險種自留、滾動調整費率適足性並汰除劣質業務。主要風險包括：極端氣候提高天災頻率與損失嚴重度、再保費率上升與承保條件趨嚴、通膨推高汽車零件與責任險和解/理賠成本、傳統險種競爭激烈且商品同質性高、金融市場波動影響投資收益、IFRS永續揭露與資安/個資治理要求提高短期制度成本、若公司追求保費規模而未同步控管費率與風險累積，綜合率可能惡化。2026至2028的具體數字公司未公開長期財測，本段對2026至2028的判斷主要依公司2024年年報、2025年法說與產險業趨勢推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 中央再保險股份有限公司 2851 台灣上市再保險公司，屬產險業風險移轉與再保安排的上游代表；旺旺保年報揭露會逐步更新再保險分出政策並培養再保及精算人員，但未揭露特定再保合約對手，故此為產業鏈代表而非已確認重大供應商。
  • 國際再保險市場 包含全球再保險公司與巨災風險承接資本，提供天災、工程、海上、責任等高額風險的再保承接能力；旺旺保未在公開資料列示具名重大再保供應商。
  • 資訊系統、資安、雲端與保險科技供應商 公司推動核心系統更新、網路投保、行動商務、自動化核保理賠與資安管理，需仰賴資訊服務供應商；公開資料未揭露具名重大供應商。
Downstream
  • 個人保戶與企業保戶 最終客戶，涵蓋汽機車、住宅、旅遊、健康傷害、企業火險、工程、責任、海上與資安等保險需求；公司揭露承保客戶分散，無占營業收入10%以上的重要客戶。
  • 車商通路、保險經紀人與保險代理人通路 重要銷售通路，年報明確提及鞏固車商通路、深化本土中大型保經代與大型國際保險經紀人合作，但未揭露具名重大通路商。
  • 銀行、壽險公司及特殊通路 公司年報列為競爭利基與通路深化方向，用於開發個人險與優質業務；公開資料未列示2025至2026具名重大合作對象。
  • 網路投保與電子商務平台客戶 公司提供全年無休網路投保，商品包含汽車險、機車險、旅平險、住宅火險、寵物險等，屬直接面向消費者的數位通路。

Competitors

  • 台灣產物保險股份有限公司 2832 台灣上市產險公司，為直接同業競爭者。
  • 新光產物保險股份有限公司 2850 台灣上市產險公司，為直接同業競爭者。
  • 第一產物保險股份有限公司 2852 台灣上市產險公司，為直接同業競爭者。
  • 中央再保險股份有限公司 2851 台灣上市再保險公司，業務屬再保險，與一般產險公司非完全同質，但同屬保險業比較對象。
  • 富邦產物保險股份有限公司 大型產險同業，本體未上市；母公司富邦金控為台股上市公司2881。
  • 國泰世紀產物保險股份有限公司 大型產險同業，本體未上市；母公司國泰金控為台股上市公司2882。
  • 新安東京海上產物保險股份有限公司 大型產險同業，本體未上市，具外資保險集團背景。
  • 明台產物保險股份有限公司 大型產險同業，本體未上市，具日本三井住友海上集團背景。
  • 和泰產物保險股份有限公司 產險同業，本體未上市；與和泰集團車商通路相關，汽車險領域具競爭性。
  • 華南產物保險股份有限公司 產險同業，本體未上市；母公司華南金控為台股上市公司2880。
  • 兆豐產物保險股份有限公司 產險同業，本體未上市；母公司兆豐金控為台股上市公司2886。
  • 泰安產物保險股份有限公司 產險同業，本體未上市。
Sources（11）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.