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2820

華票 Finance & Insurance As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

2 active signals

252d high Revenue ≥20%

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 華票 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Is 華票 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~99% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.3%.
Valuation is low.PE is in the 13th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 37th percentile.
Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 28.3% of volume (net buy).
Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 89.4%, above the 20% growth threshold.
Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.33

BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
台新證券 holds 6,169 lots
sellers have 1,767 lots left, ~30 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +9% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

Largest holder 台新證券 has accumulated 6,169 lots since the start (sold 2%), holding.
Main distributor 新加坡商瑞銀 peaked at 1,523 lots, has sold 59%, 623 left, paused recently.
TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.07pp, mid holders +2, retail -0.07pp — concentration shifting upward.
Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -129 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).

Branch inventory reconstruction

Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.

Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.

Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.

Accumulating

台新證券台灣摩根士丹利美商高盛港商野村富邦-新竹摩根大通

Distributing

新加坡商瑞銀群益金鼎-高盛新光兆豐-台中港凱基-台北元大-屏東民生

Desks

own scale

統一-仁愛合庫證券第一金康和

Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline

Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

台新證券 +6,169

sold 2%
台灣摩根士丹利 +6,107

sold 0%· still adding
美商高盛 +3,273

sold 0%· still adding
港商野村 +1,738

sold 7%· still adding
富邦-新竹 +901

sold 0%
摩根大通 +827

sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

新加坡商瑞銀 623 left

sold 59%· paused recently
群益金鼎-高盛 549 left

sold 62%· ~13 sessions to clear
新光 162 left

sold 78%· ~5 sessions to clear
兆豐-台中港 88 left

sold 82%· ~12 sessions to clear
凱基-台北 325 left

sold 28%· paused recently
元大-屏東民生 66 left

sold 83%· ~25 sessions to clear

Desks

統一-仁愛 -5,385

unclassified
合庫證券 -5,303

unclassified
第一金 -4,365

unclassified
康和 -3,453

unclassified

Still selling 1,767 lots ~30 sessions to bottom at most

Recent buy/sell force +14,233 absorbed / -1,903 sold buyers slightly ahead

Hedge-desk net short -129 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure

TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check

>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

48 historical occurrences (since 2009-04-07)

120 days after: historical avg +5.29%

20-day +1.12%

60-day +3.05%

120-day +5.29%

20-day

60-day

120-day

Win

59.6%

68.1%

76.1%

Sample

Median

+0.44%

+2%

+4.55%

Excess

-0.25%

+0.26%

-0.34%

Beat mkt rate

42.6%

51.1%

56.5%

Over 46 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.29%, lagged the market by 0.34 pts; win rate 76.1%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 89.39%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

85 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)

120 days after: historical avg +10.36%

20-day +1.13%

60-day +4.97%

120-day +10.36%

20-day

60-day

120-day

Win

59%

70.4%

74.4%

Sample

Median

+0.59%

+1.98%

+5.75%

Excess

-0.74%

-1.23%

-1.47%

Beat mkt rate

44.6%

35.8%

41%

Over 78 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 10.36%, lagged the market by 1.47 pts; win rate 74.4%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

0-20 Insufficient data

20-40 +26.7% Now

40-60 +10.8%

60-80 +11.4%

80-100 +5.7%

PE percentile band	Sample days	240-day avg return	Median	Win rate	Avg excess (vs index)
0-20	18	Insufficient data
20-40 You are here	125	+26.7%	+27.1%	100%	+5.5%
40-60	592	+10.8%	+13.1%	73.6%	+3%
60-80	670	+11.4%	+12.5%	89.6%	-6.2%
80-100	1626	+5.7%	+5.4%	84.2%	-13.2%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 11.74, at the 36.6th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation

Momentum

Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)

Mid

Expensive (own-history top 1/3)

60-day momentum up

+9.1%

Win rate 100% Excess +2.9%

63d

Now

+6.8%

Win rate 86.6% Excess +0.9%

816d

+3.1%

Win rate 76.4% Excess -5.7%

1453d

60-day momentum down

Insufficient data
(0d)

+1.1%

Win rate 56.1% Excess -6%

171d

+4.4%

Win rate 79% Excess -6.9%

648d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum up”: across 816 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 6.8%, win rate 86.6%, beat the market by 0.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

79 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.99%, win rate 70.5%, beating the market by -1.65 pts on average.

What does 華票 do? Company profile

金融保險業／票券金融業 TWSE

Overview

2820 對應證券為台灣證券交易所上市普通股「華票」，公司全名為中華票券金融股份有限公司，英文名 China Bills Finance Corporation，英文簡稱 CBF。公司為票券金融公司，總公司位於台北市內湖區堤頂大道二段99號4樓，主要營業據點包含台北總公司及板橋、桃園、台中、台南、高雄五家分公司，業務區域涵蓋國內市場。依公開資料，公司成立日期為1978/12/01，股票於1994/10/26在台灣證券交易所掛牌上市。2026年年報刊印基準日揭露董事長為張政權，總經理為魏政祥；實收資本額為新台幣13,429,600,000元，已發行普通股1,342,960,000股，每股面額新台幣10元。員工規模方面，2025年底職員156人、工員2人，合計158人；截至2026/03/24為155名職員及2名工員，合計157人。主要股東依2026/03/24基準日年報揭露，包括王道商業銀行股份有限公司持股28.36%、寶佳資產管理股份有限公司16.66%、和築投資有限公司5.73%、iShares核心MSCI新興市場ETF投資專戶1.29%、大通託管先進星光先進總合國際股票指數0.63%、宜勝投資股份有限公司0.53%、梵加德新興市場股票指數基金投資專戶0.52%、國立台灣大學0.51%、羅貝可資本成長基金投資專戶0.49%、佳元投資有限公司0.46%。公司最近一次年報揭露惠譽台灣分公司於2025/11/10確認國內長期評等A+(twn)、國內短期評等F1(twn)，展望穩定。

Business

華票的核心商業模式是票券金融與固定收益金融商品中介、自營及授信收益。主要業務範圍包括短期票券簽證、承銷、經紀、自營、保證及背書，金融債券簽證、承銷、經紀與自營，政府債券自營，公司債自營，企業財務諮詢，擔任金融機構同業拆款經紀人，投資股權相關商品，兼營固定收益有價證券自營業務，以及外幣債券自營與投資。2025年度資產結構依業務別為票券業務新台幣136,887,270千元、占51.64%；債券業務124,511,291千元、占46.96%；股權投資業務1,599,645千元、占0.60%；其他2,123,649千元、占0.80%。2025年度收入結構為票券業務2,306,529千元、占77.44%；債券業務719,744千元、占24.16%；股權投資業務251,043千元、占8.43%；其他為-298,741千元、占-10.03%；合計收入2,978,575千元。若按損益項目看，2025年利息淨收益924,012千元、手續費淨收益1,607,919千元、透過損益按公允價值衡量金融資產及負債淨收益139,126千元、透過其他綜合損益按公允價值衡量金融資產已實現淨收益316,136千元，稅後淨利1,796,079千元，EPS 1.34元。2025年度主要業務量包括承銷暨首次買入各類票券3,812,999百萬元、買賣各類票券8,757,943百萬元、保證發行商業本票餘額117,479百萬元、買賣各類台幣債券2,211,002百萬元、買賣各類外幣債券17,256百萬美元。主要客戶與終端應用並未逐名揭露；依公司年報，票券業務服務企業短期資金調度、循環發行商業本票、自保／他保／免保票券承銷與交易，債券業務終端需求者包含銀行、壽險等機構投資人，授信業務則與企業客戶、不動產及非不動產擔保案件、綠色票券與ESG相關案源有關。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年已實現情況：公司年報指出，自保業務新案動能增強並透過授信客戶結構調整提高點差，市場資金自2025年4月起較寬鬆，使自保收益超過預算；非自保業務票券市場市占率穩定領先，並在FRCP條款落日前積極尋求客源；台債業務受短期利率走跌及養券利差改善帶動；美債業務則受聯準會降息時程延後及外幣資金成本下降有限影響，收益率未達預算；股權商品及可轉債業務受關稅政策、聯準會降息節奏及資本市場觀望影響，操作難度提高。2026年公司明確目標：商業本票保證年平均餘額1,196億元、短期票券承銷及首買年平均餘額5,914億元、票債券附買回交易年平均餘額1,896億元；策略包含優化授信資產、擴充聯合授信與非不動產擔保案件、維持非自保業務市占率第二大、嚴選留庫部位收益率與天期、拓展債券RP客戶以降低資金成本、布局高評級債券、慎選股權與可轉債資產、開發低成本資金調度工具。2027至2028年展望屬研究推估而非公司正式指引：若台灣貨幣市場資金維持充裕、企業短期融資需求與金融周邊產業初級發行需求延續，票券承銷、次級市場流量及附買回交易仍有穩健空間；ESG與綠色票券、永續授信、聯合授信及非不動產擔保案件可望成為授信組合優化方向；債券業務將受台美利率循環、殖利率曲線及信用利差波動影響，若降息循環明確，有利養券利差與債券評價，但若通膨反覆或美債殖利率波動加大，交易波段操作難度升高。主要風險包括銀行放款與承銷同業競爭壓縮報價、免保票券客群多為大型優質客戶導致利差競爭激烈、地緣政治與美國關稅政策造成市場波動、信用風險與不動產授信風險、外幣資金成本與匯率風險、法遵資安及永續揭露成本增加。

Supply Chain

Upstream

王道商業銀行股份有限公司 2897 台股上市銀行，為華票最大股東，2026/03/24持股28.36%；對華票屬資本結構與金融集團關係的重要上游資金／股東來源。
寶佳資產管理股份有限公司未上市公司，為華票第二大股東，2026/03/24持股16.66%；屬主要股東資金來源。
和築投資有限公司未上市公司，為華票主要股東，2026/03/24持股5.73%；屬主要股東資金來源。
票債券附買回交易客戶及金融機構資金提供者公司年報揭露將拓展債券RP客戶、機動調整資金調度工具以降低資金成本；實際客戶名單未逐一公開，因此不填特定股票代號。
臺灣集中保管結算所股份有限公司未上市金融市場基礎設施，票券、債券及證券交易清算交割體系相關機構；華票具票券與固定收益商品交易業務，屬市場基礎設施關係而非傳統供應商。

Downstream

企業短期資金融通客戶公司主要服務對象包含發行商業本票、循環發行商業本票、聯合承銷與授信客戶；年報未揭露逐名客戶，可能包含上市櫃與未上市企業。
銀行及壽險等機構投資人公司年報指出公司債及債券需求端包含銀行、壽險等終端需求者；具體客戶未揭露，因此不填特定股票代號。
不動產及非不動產擔保授信客戶華票授信業務持續優化客戶結構，並擴展聯合授信、非不動產業擔保案件與綠色票券／ESG案源；具體客戶未揭露。
次級票券與債券交易通路客戶公司透過票券、台幣債券、外幣債券及附買回交易服務機構客戶與市場交易對手；交易對手名單未公開。

Competitors

兆豐票券金融股份有限公司銀行局列示之票券金融公司，非台股上市櫃公司；與華票同屬票券承銷、交易、保證及固定收益業務競爭者，關係企業包含台股上市兆豐金控。
國際票券金融股份有限公司銀行局列示之票券金融公司，非台股上市櫃公司；主要從事貨幣市場及金融相關業務，與華票直接競爭，關係企業包含台股上市國票金控。
大中票券金融股份有限公司銀行局列示之票券金融公司，非台股上市櫃公司；為華票在票券金融市場的同業競爭者。
台灣票券金融股份有限公司銀行局列示之票券金融公司，非台股上市櫃公司；與華票競爭短期票券承銷、交易及保證業務。
萬通票券金融股份有限公司銀行局列示之票券金融公司，非台股上市櫃公司；與華票同業競爭。
大慶票券金融股份有限公司銀行局列示之票券金融公司，非台股上市櫃公司；與華票同業競爭。
合作金庫票券金融股份有限公司銀行局列示之票券金融公司，非台股上市櫃公司；關係企業包含台股上市合作金庫金控，與華票同業競爭。
銀行放款及承銷部門華票年報明確指出國內金融市場面臨銀行競爭，且免保票券客群報價面臨銀行放款及承銷同業競爭；此為業務型競爭群，非單一公司。

Sources（7）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.