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2850

新產 Finance & Insurance As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
252d high
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 新產 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 74Quality 90Growth 66Momentum 75Chips 47

Is 新產 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~93% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 5.9%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 8th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 80th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 0.2% of volume (net buy).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.23
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 摩根大通 holds 1,552 lots
  • sellers have 940 lots left, ~78 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +21% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 摩根大通 has accumulated 1,552 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 853 lots, has sold 70%, 257 left, ~12 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.26pp, mid holders +0, retail -0.06pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -334 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
摩根大通花旗環球元大-內湖民權元大-內湖永豐金-匯立富邦-北高雄
Distributing
台灣摩根士丹利美商高盛凱基-台北富邦證券凱基台新
Desks
own scale
元大證券永豐金證券新加坡商瑞銀統一
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 摩根大通 +1,552
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 花旗環球 +390
    sold 1%
  • 元大-內湖民權 +310
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-內湖 +270
    sold 0%
  • 永豐金-匯立 +217
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-北高雄 +206
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 257 left
    sold 70%· ~12 sessions to clear
  • 美商高盛 132 left
    sold 82%· ~78 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-台北 182 left
    sold 66%· ~16 sessions to clear
  • 富邦證券 102 left
    sold 80%· paused recently
  • 凱基 217 left
    sold 26%· ~29 sessions to clear
  • 台新 30 left
    sold 87%· ~8 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 元大證券 -701
    unclassified
  • 永豐金證券 -629
    unclassified
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -283
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 統一 -247
    unclassified
Still selling 940 lots ~78 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,482 absorbed / -591 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -314 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

45 historical occurrences (since 2009-09-08)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 68.9%, Sample 45, Median +2.5%, Excess +1.66%, Beat mkt rate 60%；60-day: Win 70.5%, Sample 44, Median +6.28%, Excess +4.23%, Beat mkt rate 63.6%；120-day: Win 79.1%, Sample 43, Median +10.4%, Excess +6.77%, Beat mkt rate 67.4%

120 days after: historical avg +11.75%

20-day +3.53%
60-day +6.46%
120-day +11.75%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
68.9%
70.5%
79.1%
Sample
45
44
43
Median
+2.5%
+6.28%
+10.4%
Excess
+1.66%
+4.23%
+6.77%
Beat mkt rate
60%
63.6%
67.4%

Over 43 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 11.75%, beat the market by 6.77 pts; win rate 79.1%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 251+18.6% +16.4% 100% -0.8%
20-40 1233+12.9% +11.8% 84.3% +3.3%
40-60 691+28.5% +27.6% 94.9% +14.3%
60-80 643+31.5% +25.8% 76.5% +10.7%
80-100 You are here225+30.4% +24.3% 99.6% -15.4%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 10.1, at the 80.5th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+6.3%
Win rate 82.1% Excess +1.7%
725d
+11.6%
Win rate 82.1% Excess +5%
1077d
Now
+13.8%
Win rate 88.5% Excess -0.4%
620d
60-day momentum down
+8.8%
Win rate 82.1% Excess +0.3%
330d
+8.9%
Win rate 84% Excess +0.2%
319d
+18.8%
Win rate 85.9% Excess -1.1%
92d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 620 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 13.8%, win rate 88.5%, lagged the market by 0.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

23 times historically; 60-day forward avg +12.77%, win rate 90.9%, beating the market by +8.96 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

67 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.15%, win rate 72.3%, beating the market by +1.99 pts on average.

What does 新產 do? Company profile

金融保險業／產物保險業 上市（台灣證券交易所）

Overview

2850 對應證券為新光產物保險股份有限公司普通股，台灣證券交易所上市公司，產業類別為金融保險業，主要經營財產保險。公司於民國52年5月1日（1963年）開幕營業，股票於民國89年5月22日（2000-05-22）上市掛牌。英文名稱 Shinkong Insurance Co., Ltd.，英文簡稱 SK Insurance。實收資本額新台幣3,159,633,000元，流通在外普通股315,963,300股，每股面額10元。董事長為吳昕紘；總經理依2026-03-13重大訊息為蔡世賢，於2026-05-21生效，何英蘭退休後轉任副董事長。公司登記與主要營業地址資料曾揭露為台北市中山區建國北路二段13號11樓，官網頁尾另列公司地址為台北市松山區民權東路三段171號3樓。員工規模：2024年年報揭露截至2025-03-31合計1,564人，其中總公司436人、分公司1,129人。主要股東（2024年年報）：新光紡織16.31%、臺灣新光實業5.08%、新光人壽4.13%、臺灣銀行受託保管元大台灣高股息低波動ETF專戶3.82%、鴻譜2.35%、天成飯店2.04%、廣明企業1.94%、謙成毅1.73%、紘恩1.43%、北投大飯店1.29%。2025年全年簽單保費277億元，維持國內產險市場第三大地位；2025年營業收入約215.62億元、稅後淨利約38.79億元、EPS 12.28元，董事會通過2025年度現金股利每股7.27元。信用評等方面，公司揭露中華信評給予twAA+，S&P／AM Best等國際評等維持穩健水準；2026年媒體報導AM Best長期發行人信用評等維持a+。

Business

新光產險屬財產保險公司，商業模式為向個人與企業收取保費、承擔承保風險、透過核保、理賠、再保險與投資配置取得核保利潤及投資收益。2024年年報揭露2024年度簽單保費合計262.8764億元，業務比重為車險125.00258億元、47.55%；火險58.52099億元、22.26%；工程險29.23908億元、11.13%；責任險22.82337億元、8.68%；傷健險16.64604億元、6.33%；水險10.64434億元、4.05%。主要產品包括住宅火險、住宅地震險、居家綜合險、商業火險、商業地震險、颱風洪水險、貨物險、船體險、航空險、任意車體損失險、任意汽車責任險、強制汽車責任險、營造綜合險、安裝工程險、電子設備險、一般責任險、專業責任險、保證保險、農業保險、信用保險、團體傷害險、個人傷害險、旅行平安險、旅行綜合保險、個人與團體健康保險等。銷售地區為台、澎、金、馬，2024年市場占有率約9.73%。客戶結構未揭露單一重大客戶，年報明確表示近二年度無任一年度占銷貨總額10%以上之客戶；終端應用涵蓋個人汽機車、住宅與旅遊保障，以及企業火險、工程險、責任險、貨運與海運、半導體及電子製造、再生能源、公共工程、綠能產業與大型建築工程等。公司通路包含自有營業據點、網路投保、車商通路、銀行與保經代通路、關係企業通路、企業保險團隊及在地通路。投資策略以保守穩健為核心，固定收益投資為主，搭配國內債市與高股息標的，避免過度追求短期投資績效。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望：一、成長動能來自台灣產險市場保費穩定成長、車險續保與新車市場、企業火險、工程險、責任險、旅遊險、綠能保險、資安保險及淨零轉型相關保障。2024年年報預期2025年整體市場仍穩定成長，車險市場穩健成長，火險受極端氣候與再保市場影響但仍以費率適足與再保分散風險爭取優質業務，工程險受捷運、鐵路、電廠、桃園鐵路地下化等公共工程與民間大型工程推動，責任險受強制投保法規、綠能產業與公共工程需求帶動，傷健險則受旅遊險市場復甦與通路布局支持。二、公司2025年董事長報告指出全年簽單保費277億元、維持國內第三大產險公司，並將持續優化商品組合、強化實體與轉型風險因應、推動線上投保、系統化核保流程、電子保單、綠色保險與新興風險商品。三、2026年公司展望為持續精進企業風險管理（ERM）與氣候評估機制，將永續考量納入核保、投資及資本配置，深化與再保夥伴及科技業者合作，拓展資安保險、綠能保險及淨零轉型方案。四、2027至2028年未見公司發布明確財務預測；可合理推估重點仍在提高核保品質、增加質優自留業務、妥善安排再保、強化數位服務、AI與大數據核保理賠輔助、開發新興風險商品、維持資本適足與信用評等。五、主要風險包括極端氣候與天災損失、再保成本上升或承保能量收縮、產險市場競爭加劇、費率自由化與通路競爭、金控體系同業資源整合壓力、道德風險與理賠成本上升、通膨造成修繕與營運成本增加、金融市場波動與利率變動、地緣政治與關稅政策、法規遵循與資訊安全成本、IFRS 17導入後財報呈現與資本管理壓力。上述2027至2028內容屬依公司既有策略與產業趨勢推估，非公司正式財測。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 國際再保險公司 新光產險承保火險、工程險、水險、責任險與巨災風險時需透過再保險分散風險；年報多次提及再保市場、再保成本、臨分再保與再保安排。具體合作再保公司名單未完整公開，多為海外再保險機構或未在台股掛牌。
  • 台灣產物保險同業公會 非營利同業組織，提供產險簽單業績、市場統計與行業資料；年報營業比重與產業統計資料引用產險公會。
  • 銀行、保經代與關係企業通路 屬保險銷售與客源來源之一；公司年報指出關係企業集團含銀行、人壽、保經等通路資源豐富，並深耕銀行及在地通路。個別合作對象未完整揭露，部分可能為未上市或其他上市金融集團旗下子公司。
  • 車商銷售通路 為車險重要保源之一；年報指出公司開拓車險優質通路及車商銷售通路。具體車商名單未揭露，可能包含上市車商、代理商與未上市經銷商。
  • 資訊系統與金融科技服務商 公司重視MIS核心資訊系統、線上投保、系統化核保流程、AI與大數據輔助核保理賠；具體供應商未揭露，故不列特定股票代號。
Downstream
  • 個人車險與住宅保戶 車險為最大業務，占2024年簽單保費47.55%；住宅火險、住宅地震險、居家綜合險等服務一般家庭與個人保戶，屬非上市個人客戶。
  • 企業客戶 企業火險、商業地震險、責任險、工程險、貨物運輸險等主要服務企業客戶；公司未揭露占比超過10%的單一客戶，故不列個別股票代號。
  • 半導體與電子製造產業 2025年董事長報告指出火災保險市場成長受半導體、電子製造及再生能源產業需求帶動；此為下游投保需求來源，個別客戶未揭露。
  • 公共工程與綠能產業 工程險與責任險需求受捷運、鐵路、電廠、綠色能源、大型公共工程與再生能源投資帶動；個別業主、承包商或專案公司未揭露。
  • 旅遊與團體保險客群 傷健險與旅遊綜合保險受旅遊市場復甦帶動，客戶包含個人旅客、團體保戶與通路合作方；多為非上市個人或企業。

Competitors

Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.