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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 2883B 凱基金乙特. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=2883B

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2883B

凱基金乙特 Other Securities As of 2026-07-29 Updated daily after market close

2 signals active.

2 active signals
252d high 外資連買5日
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 凱基金乙特 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
估值 50品質 50成長 50動能 67籌碼 96

Is 凱基金乙特 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • 外資近期偏買。外資近 20 日買賣超約佔成交量 21.2%（買超）。

Chip flow

Bullish +0.97
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 凱基 holds 15,544 lots
  • sellers have 798 lots left, ~109 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +5% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 凱基 has accumulated 15,544 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
  • Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 1,463 lots, has sold 37%, 916 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +3.01pp, mid holders -25, retail -1.98pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -2,763 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
凱基元大-北三重元大證券統一富邦證券國泰證券
Distributing
台灣摩根士丹利國票證券美林台新-中港凱基-大安統一-基隆
Desks
own scale
新光台新證券凱基-竹科元大-金華
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 凱基 +15,544
    sold 0%
  • 元大-北三重 +12,297
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大證券 +5,825
    sold 0%
  • 統一 +5,216
    sold 0%
  • 富邦證券 +5,070
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰證券 +3,754
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 916 left
    sold 37%· paused recently
  • 國票證券 264 left
    sold 78%· paused recently
  • 美林 569 left
    sold 46%· ~109 sessions to clear
  • 台新-中港 283 left
    sold 72%· paused recently
  • 凱基-大安 206 left
    sold 68%· paused recently
  • 統一-基隆 212 left
    sold 46%· ~25 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 新光 -4,514
    unclassified
  • 台新證券 -3,914
    unclassified
  • 凱基-竹科 -2,265
    unclassified
  • 元大-金華 -2,035
    unclassified
Still selling 798 lots ~109 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +3,900 absorbed / -140 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -1,041 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

目前正在發生的訊號

以下訊號在最近一筆資料中成立，附這檔股票自身歷史上每次出現後的前瞻報酬統計

股價創 252 日新高（突破日）

Active

還原股價首次站上過去 252 個交易日最高；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

8 historical occurrences (since 2024-09-19)
Average forward return after 股價創 252 日新高（突破日）。20-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 7, Median +0.52%, Excess -2.14%, Beat mkt rate 28.6%；60-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 7, Median +1.24%, Excess -13.46%, Beat mkt rate 14.3%；120-day: Win 100%, Sample 5, Median +1.94%, Excess -22.6%, Beat mkt rate 20%

120 days after: historical avg +3.34%

20-day +0.37%
60-day +0.59%
120-day +3.34%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.1%
57.1%
100%
Sample
7
7
5
Median
+0.52%
+1.24%
+1.94%
Excess
-2.14%
-13.46%
-22.6%
Beat mkt rate
28.6%
14.3%
20%

Over 5 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 3.34%, lagged the market by 22.6 pts; win rate 100%.

外資連續買超滿 5 個交易日

Active · now 11%

外資（不含自營商）買賣超連續 5 日為正，事件日為第 5 日；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

8 historical occurrences (since 2024-06-21)
Average forward return after 外資連續買超滿 5 個交易日。20-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 7, Median +0.62%, Excess -2.34%, Beat mkt rate 57.1%；60-day: Win 85.7%, Sample 7, Median +2.37%, Excess -9.16%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%；120-day: Win 100%, Sample 5, Median +7.43%, Excess -9.36%, Beat mkt rate 60%

120 days after: historical avg +5.61%

20-day +0.09%
60-day +2.17%
120-day +5.61%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.1%
85.7%
100%
Sample
7
7
5
Median
+0.62%
+2.37%
+7.43%
Excess
-2.34%
-9.16%
-9.36%
Beat mkt rate
57.1%
42.9%
60%

Over 5 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.61%, lagged the market by 9.36 pts; win rate 100%.

這個訊號在全市場是否站得住腳

「月營收年增率 ≥ 20%」過去 243 個月，每月平均約 404 檔個股符合條件；這些個股之後 60 個交易日的還原股價報酬，等權平均為 6.99%，平均贏過大盤 2.32 個百分點，在 64.2% 的月份中跑贏發行量加權股價報酬指數。

每月對全市場符合訊號的股票取等權平均前瞻 60 日還原報酬，再對月份平均；超額相對發行量加權股價報酬指數

What does 凱基金乙特 do? Company profile

金融保險業／金控業特別股 臺灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2883B 為凱基金融控股股份有限公司乙種特別股，非普通股營運公司。發行人為凱基金融控股股份有限公司，原名中華開發金融控股股份有限公司，成立與上市日期均為 2001/12/28，總部位於台北市松山區敦化北路135號8、12、13及18樓；董事長王銘陽、總經理楊文鈞；實收資本額約新台幣1,855.7億元，普通股代號2883，主要業務為投資及被投資公司之管理。2883B 係 2021/12/30 因受讓中國人壽股份轉換而增發上市之乙種特別股，原簡稱開發金乙特，2024/10/11 隨公司更名後簡稱變更為凱基金乙特；更名換發後公告之上市特別股數量為1,582,142,374股。此證券無追蹤指數、無 ETF 成分股、無權證標的結構；其核心條款為發行價格每股新台幣10元、特別股股息初始年率3.55%（七年期IRS利率0.75%加2.80%），七年期IRS利率於發行日起滿七年後及其後每七年重設。

Business

2883B 本身不從事營運，投資人承擔的是凱基金控乙種特別股的股息、收回、利率重設與發行人信用／資本適足風險。其股息每年以現金一次發放，但公司對特別股股息分派具自主裁量權；若年度決算無盈餘、盈餘不足、發放後資本適足率低於法令或主管機關要求，或基於其他必要考量，公司得決議不分派。此特別股為非累積型，未分派或不足額股息不遞延補發；特別股股東除約定股息外，不參加普通股盈餘或資本公積分派。剩餘財產分派順序優先於普通股，但以不超過發行金額為限；原則上無表決權及選舉權，但於特別股股東會及涉及特別股權利義務事項有表決權；不得轉換普通股；無到期日，股東無權要求公司收回，公司於發行日起屆滿七年後得按實際發行價格收回全部或一部。發行人凱基金控旗下主要事業體包括凱基人壽、凱基銀行、凱基證券、凱基投信與中華開發資本，業務涵蓋壽險、銀行、證券、資產管理與私募股權／投資管理。

Outlook 2025–2028

此為非營運特別股，沒有產品擴產或營收成長展望；2025至2028年的核心觀察點在於發行人凱基金控的可分配盈餘、資本適足率、壽險投資收益與避險成本、銀行與證券獲利，以及2028年前後七年期IRS利率重設與公司是否行使收回權。已查得凱基金控公告2025全年稅後淨利新台幣300億元、EPS 1.74元，凱基人壽2025年稅後淨利158億元，銀行與證券雙位數成長，且公司表示將延續穩健股利政策；這對特別股配息能力屬正面訊號，但不構成保證。2026年起 IFRS 17 與保險資本制度接軌，使壽險商品結構、CSM存量、匯率避險與外匯價格變動準備金更影響金控獲利與資本水位。主要風險包括：新台幣大幅升值推升避險成本、股債市場波動侵蝕壽險投資收益、資本適足率或法規要求限制配息、非累積條款導致停配年度不補發、利率重設後股息率不確定、以及公司未必於可收回時點收回。

Sources（10）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

方法與限制

  • 所有報酬以還原股價（etl:adj_close）計算，已還原除權息與股票分割。
  • 超額報酬以發行量加權股價報酬指數（含息）為基準。
  • 估值位階與分位統計以「截至當天為止的自身歷史」滾動計算，不使用未來資訊。
  • 營收訊號的事件日對齊到公告截止日後第一個交易日，避免提前用到尚未公開的資訊。
  • 事件樣本之間日期可能重疊，統計僅描述歷史分布，樣本數較少時參考價值有限。

本頁內容為歷史資料統計與教育用途，不構成投資建議。投資一定有風險，過去績效不代表未來表現，交易前請自行評估並承擔風險。