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2913
quality needs a look, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 農林 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 24th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -0.3%.
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Valuation is high.PE is in the 100th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 90th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 6.9% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Distribution, concentration falling — bearish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -16% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 台灣企銀-岡山 has accumulated 2,878 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 台新-大裕 peaked at 628 lots, has sold 89%, 67 left, ~17 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -2.72pp, mid holders +23, retail +0.61pp — little change.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,587 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 台灣企銀-岡山 +2,878
- 美商高盛 +2,248
- 台新-同大 +1,731
- 元大-復北 +1,431
- 國泰-敦南 +1,271
- 兆豐-復興 +1,207
Distributing
- 台新-大裕 67 left
- 高橋-龍潭 266 left
- 國泰-高雄 202 left
- 元大-苗栗 84 left
- 元大-竹北 81 left
- 凱基-長庚 114 left
Desks
- 台中銀-台北 -18,793
- 凱基-站前 -4,286
- 元大-四維 -4,044
- 兆豐-松德 -1,720
Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 465 | +8.7% | +6.2% | 68.2% | -3.5% |
| 20-40 | 335 | -15.6% | -16.9% | 11% | -17.4% |
| 40-60 | 469 | +13.3% | +11.2% | 66.5% | -17.6% |
| 60-80 | 32 | -6.5% | -6.5% | 0% | -21.2% |
| 80-100 You are here | 86 | +41.8% | +41.2% | 100% | -43.4% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 1060.0, at the 90.3th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 176 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 15.7%, win rate 70.5%, lagged the market by 19.4%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
16 times historically; 60-day forward avg -3.89%, win rate 31.2%, beating the market by -10.02 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
68 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.21%, win rate 45.6%, beating the market by +2.19 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
73 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.98%, win rate 47.2%, beating the market by -3.1 pts on average.
What does 農林 do? Company profile
Overview
2913 對應台灣農林股份有限公司，股票簡稱農林，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股。公司前身可追溯至 1899 年日本三井物產株式會社在台茶業，現行公司登記成立日為 1950/06/15，上市日期為 1962/02/09。總部位於新竹縣湖口鄉中華路 3 號，另有北區、苗栗、南投、屏東等製茶與營運據點。董事長為吳清源；公開股市資料顯示總經理亦為吳清源。實收資本額約新台幣 79 億元，已發行普通股 790,000,000 股。員工規模第三方徵才及金融資料約 205 至 208 人，因來源非公開資訊觀測站年報逐項查核，列為估計。主要股東以董事持股資料可確認上揚資產管理股份有限公司持股約 223,640,000 股、源興行銷股份有限公司持股約 20,000,000 股；董監持股比例公開股市資料約 30.84%。公司官網設有十大股東頁，但頁面未能擷取到完整名單，主要股東資料需以最新年報或股東名簿為準。
Business
台灣農林是台灣少數自有茶園、茶廠與品牌通路的上市茶業公司，業務包括茶樹種植、茶葉與茶相關產品生產銷售、代理商品與通路貿易、觀光休閒茶園、咖啡園、土地租賃與土地開發。公司自述自擁茶園生產台灣茶，採有機或自然農法為主，製茶流程涵蓋種植、栽培、精製烘焙與自有品牌銷售，產品包含東方美人茶、有機手採碧螺春、台茶 8 號、12 號、17 號、18 號、青心大方、四季春茶、阿薩姆紅茶、紅玉紅茶、紅韻紅茶、鹿篙咖啡豆及即溶茶、咖啡產品。通路業務銷售自有茶葉成品、茶葉原料與代理商品，通路涵蓋一般零售、便利商店、超市、量販、全聯、百貨超市、連鎖藥妝、經銷商、餐飲通路、飲料製造商、連鎖飲料店、飯店餐飲、泡沫紅茶店、早餐店、航空公司、辦公室通路與網路。2025 年營收約新台幣 4.73 億元；依第三方整理之年報產品組合，114 年度營收分布約為百貨貿易 328,570.62 千元、占 69.52%，租賃 46,740.29 千元、占 9.89%，其他 97,217.03 千元、占 20.59%。法說資料顯示土地資產約 3,715 公頃，投資性不動產公允價值截至 2025/12/31 約新台幣 253 億元，是公司資產價值與轉型的核心基礎。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025 年公司營收約 4.73 億元，較 2024 年 4.33 億元成長約 9%，營業利益虧損由 2024 年約 6,000 萬元收斂至 2025 年約 1,900 萬元，但稅後仍虧損約 8,800 萬元，顯示本業改善中但尚未穩定獲利。2026 至 2028 年主要成長動能包括：一、茶本業提升效率，公司提出 2026 年茶葉銷售目標約 500 噸，約占國內生產量 3%，並以老埤智慧茶園、滴灌、微氣候監測、產銷履歷與凍乾即溶產品提升品質與成本效率；二、觀光休閒成為第二獲利引擎，熊空、銅鑼、鹿篙、大溪老茶廠、日月老茶廠等據點將以委外、合作營運或整備轉型擴大茶文化、食農教育與休閒農業收入；三、土地資產活化，三義科技物流園區、銅科北側住宅社區、銅科工商綜合區等專案已進入建照申辦、招商或建築設計階段，公司計畫尋求投資合作對象並提高土地價值；四、費用控管與多元轉型，法說會明確表示將適度縮減茶葉種植面積、停止盲目擴產、強化資產活化、降低營業費用，目標在未來三至五年改善獲利。主要風險包括茶葉與農產品受天候、病蟲害、人工與肥料成本影響；台灣茶市場競爭分散且進口茶、手搖飲與瓶裝茶品牌替代性高；觀光休閒依賴人流與消費景氣；土地開發涉及環評、水保、建照、國土計畫、招商、資金成本與開發時程不確定；公司資產龐大但現金流與獲利仍偏弱，若利率、融資或資產減損壓力上升，轉型期財務風險會增加。
Supply Chain
- Netafim 以色列精準灌溉系統供應商；台灣農林法說資料揭露老埤農場採用其滴灌與精準灌溉技術，屬非台股掛牌企業。
- 農業部茶及飲料作物改良場、農業科技研究院等農業技術與驗證單位 非上市櫃公司或政府/法人單位；與茶作技術、產品碳足跡盤查及第三方驗證相關。
- 茶苗、肥料、包材、農機與檢驗服務供應商 公司未在可取得資料中揭露具名主要供應商；屬茶葉種植、製造、包裝與食品安全檢驗的上游投入。
- 全聯福利中心 公司官網通路業務列示之一般零售通路之一；全聯非台股上市櫃公司。
- 便利商店、連鎖超市、量販店、百貨公司超市、連鎖藥妝、經銷商與餐飲通路 公司官網列示之主要零售及經銷通路；未逐一揭露具名客戶。
- 飲料製造商、連鎖飲料店、飯店餐飲、泡沫紅茶店、早餐店、航空公司、辦公室通路與一般消費者 公司官網列示之特販與終端應用通路，主要採 B2B 原料茶、成品茶與 B2C 品牌銷售模式。
Competitors
- 天仁茶業 1233 台股上市茶葉品牌與茶相關製品公司，與台灣農林在茶葉、茶飲通路與品牌零售市場有直接競爭。
- 統一企業 1216 台股上市食品飲料大廠，旗下茶裏王等即飲茶品牌在包裝茶飲市場具規模，與台灣農林茶原料、成品茶及飲料通路形成間接競爭。
- 黑松 1234 台股上市飲料公司，經營茶飲、碳酸飲料與代理飲品，與台灣農林在飲料與通路市場形成間接競爭。
- 愛之味 1217 台股上市食品飲料公司，飲料為重要營收項目之一，與台灣農林在茶飲、健康飲品及零售通路有間接競爭。
- 遠雄建設 5522 台股上市建設公司；非茶業同業，但在土地開發、住宅與商業不動產開發招商面向，與台灣農林土地活化業務存在資金與開發能力比較關係。
Sources（18）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.