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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 2929 淘帝-KY. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=2929
2929
quality needs a look, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 淘帝-KY a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 16th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -0.9%.
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Valuation is high.PE is in the 82th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 94th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -8.7% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -26% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 永豐金證券 has accumulated 1,030 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 富邦-花蓮 peaked at 360 lots, has sold 85%, 55 left, ~7 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.58pp, mid holders -1, retail -1.18pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -578 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 永豐金證券 +1,030
- 兆豐-城中 +901
- 新光-新竹 +775
- 國泰-館前 +563
- 華南永昌-台南 +225
- 國泰-桃園 +166
Distributing
- 富邦-花蓮 55 left
- 美商高盛 148 left
- 群益金鼎-三民 16 left
- 群益金鼎-丹鳳 26 left
- 台新-林園 50 left
- 彰銀-台中 38 left
Desks
- 永豐金-敦南 -1,352
- 元大-太平 -482
- 新加坡商瑞銀 -458
- 元大-歸仁 -429
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 523 | -33.7% | -22.9% | 24.3% | -64.7% |
| 20-40 | 143 | -10.9% | -11.4% | 14% | -22.7% |
| 40-60 | 100 | -2.2% | +13.6% | 57% | -42.8% |
| 60-80 | 136 | +4.8% | +5.6% | 72.1% | -14.6% |
| 80-100 You are here | 170 | -28.7% | -29.2% | 7.1% | -87.7% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 53.85, at the 94.3th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 272 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 10.7%, win rate 20.6%, lagged the market by 36.2%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
13 times historically; 60-day forward avg -10.76%, win rate 30.8%, beating the market by -11.32 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
26 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.34%, win rate 50%, beating the market by -0.64 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
57 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.23%, win rate 45.5%, beating the market by -0.73 pts on average.
What does 淘帝-KY do? Company profile
Overview
淘帝-KY為英屬開曼群島商淘帝國際控股有限公司，證券代號2929，屬上市普通股。公司成立於2012/10/03，2013/12/30在台灣證券交易所上市；旗下TOPBI（淘帝）品牌創立於2002年，主營中國市場童裝。公司登記/通訊地址為台北市內湖區新湖一路97號2樓，官網為http://www.topbi.com.tw。董事長為周志鴻，總經理為莊凌鋒。實收資本額約新台幣1,094,938,380元，已發行普通股109,493,838股。公開資料顯示董監持股比例約14.87%；主要法人股東/董事相關持股為TOPWEALTH INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED約16,061,082股、約14.67%，另陳妤鎔持股約220,000股，莊凌鋒持股約507,000股。員工規模方面，104人力銀行頁面揭露員工人數177人，但未能確認是否為2026最新年報數字。公司簽證會計師事務所為信永中和聯合會計師事務所，股務代理為福邦證券。
Business
公司主要從事自有品牌童裝及配飾之設計開發及銷售，產品鎖定1至16歲、身高約73至170公分兒童，品牌定位偏中等收入與小康家庭。商業模式以品牌、設計、產品企劃、供應鏈管理與代理商通路為核心，服裝及配飾生產多採外包方式，銷售對象以中國境內代理商與電商通路為主。公司早期以線下代理商/門市為主要通路，近年因中國零售與消費習慣變化，積極轉向線上代理商、第三方電商平台、社群媒體與直播電商。公開資料顯示TOPBI線上代理商家數約14家，並布局拼多多、淘寶、京東等平台，亦導入直播電商團隊、自有網紅主播與MCN合作。營收方面，2024年合併營收約21.21億元，EPS約0.14元；2025年合併營收約17.54至17.63億元、年減約17.3%，EPS約-1.68元；2026年1至5月累計營收約7.06億元、年減約6.75%。公司未揭露可高度確認的最新產品別營收占比，故不列具體產品占比。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025至2028展望以轉型修復為主，而非明確高成長能見度。成長動能包括：一、線上銷售與直播電商占比提升，透過拼多多、淘寶、京東、社群媒體、直播帶貨與MCN合作擴大曝光；二、線下代理商導入第三方平台與社群銷售，形成全通路經營；三、秋冬童裝保暖、防潑水、亮色拼接等設計與機能性產品可支撐旺季客單價；四、若中國童裝需求與消費信心回穩，公司有機會改善代理商拉貨與庫存周轉。主要風險包括：一、2025全年營收仍明顯年減，且媒體指出營收已連續多年下滑，顯示品牌與通路調整仍未完成；二、中國出生率下降、童裝競爭激烈、電商平台低價競爭與行銷費用提高，可能壓縮毛利與品牌溢價；三、代理商下單保守、庫存與季節性需求波動，會使季度營收大幅起伏；四、公司曾涉及財報不實與內線交易求償事件，投資人須持續追蹤內控、治理與財報可信度改善；五、KY架構與主要營運地在中國，另有人民幣、台幣匯率與跨境監管風險。2026至2028未見公司發布可量化長期財測，以上展望屬依公開營運訊息與產業趨勢推估。
Supply Chain
- 中國地區成衣代工廠與加工廠 淘帝童裝及配飾多採外包生產，實際供應商名稱未於可查資料中完整揭露；主要關係為童裝成衣製造、加工與交貨。
- 布料、紗線、輔料與包材供應商 提供童裝所需布料、紗線、拉鍊、鈕扣、印染、吊牌與包材等；多為中國或非台股掛牌供應商，公開資料未列明公司名稱。
- 倉儲物流與電商履約服務商 配合線上銷售轉型，負責商品倉儲、分撥、物流配送與電商履約；公司曾評估華東倉儲物流體系與電商產業園項目。
- 中國境內線下代理商與門市通路 公司主要銷售對象之一；代理商負責區域批發、門市銷售、備貨與終端消費者經營，非台股掛牌。
- 中國境內線上代理商 TOPBI線上代理商約14家，負責電商平台、社群、直播與線上批發零售；非台股掛牌。
- 阿里巴巴集團（淘寶、天貓） 公司展望中提及強化淘寶等電商平台布局；阿里巴巴為香港/美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
- 拼多多／PDD Holdings 公司展望中提及強化拼多多平台布局；PDD為美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
- 京東集團 公司展望中提及強化京東平台布局；京東為香港/美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
- MCN機構、直播電商團隊與網紅主播 協助TOPBI品牌線上曝光、直播帶貨與新媒體銷售；多為未上市或非台股掛牌合作方。
Competitors
- 麗嬰房 2911 台股上市童裝、嬰幼兒用品與通路品牌，與淘帝在童裝及兒童用品零售市場具可比性。
- 金麗-KY 8429 台股掛牌中國服飾品牌/通路業者，非純童裝，但同屬中國服飾零售與品牌競爭環境。
- 儒鴻 1476 台股上市成衣與機能布料大廠，主要為OEM/ODM，與淘帝品牌零售模式不同，但在服飾供應鏈與產品開發能力上具參考性。
- 聚陽 1477 台股上市成衣代工大廠，主要服務國際品牌，非直接童裝品牌競爭者；作為服飾產業同業比較參考。
- 森馬服飾／巴拉巴拉 Balabala 中國A股上市公司旗下童裝品牌，為中國童裝市場重要競爭者；非台股掛牌。
- 安踏、李寧、Nike Kids、Adidas Kids及其他中國/國際童裝品牌 多為中國、香港、美國或未上市品牌，與TOPBI在中國兒童服飾終端市場競爭；非台股掛牌。
Sources（16）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.