Ask AI to review this stock
Copy the prompt to get recent events, historical reactions, and a short research brief.
Tell your AI:
Help me set up FinLab and analyze 3049 精金. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=3049
3049
steady quality, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 精金 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
-
Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 53th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.8%.
-
Valuation is high.PE is in the 98th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 99th percentile.
-
Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 0.2% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Distribution to retail — bearish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +78% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 國泰-敦南 has accumulated 7,591 lots since the start (sold 4%), still adding.
- Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 2,758 lots, has sold 65%, 967 left, ~5 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -2.11pp, mid holders -16, retail +3.51pp — drifting down to retail.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -21,282 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 國泰-敦南 +7,591
- 國票證券 +2,604
- 凱基-永華 +2,345
- 永豐金證券 +974
- 台新-中壢 +811
- 國泰-新莊 +721
Distributing
- 凱基-台北 967 left
- 新加坡商瑞銀 1,151 left
- 港商野村 409 left
- 美林 435 left
- 台新-虎尾 673 left
- 元大-嘉義 1,115 left
Desks
- 摩根大通 -21,112
- 美好-富順 -3,087
- 臺銀-民權 -2,753
- 第一金-台南 -1,633
Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 356 | +10.8% | -3.8% | 47.5% | -8.7% |
| 20-40 | 230 | -9.6% | -20.2% | 34.3% | -30.9% |
| 40-60 | 79 | -0.9% | -23% | 32.9% | -10.3% |
| 60-80 | 167 | +35.4% | +28.6% | 70.7% | +23.2% |
| 80-100 You are here | 123 | +44.2% | +66% | 65% | +42.7% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 336.67, at the 99.0th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 116 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 6.5%, win rate 62.1%, lagged the market by 1%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
17 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.64%, win rate 41.2%, beating the market by -1.07 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
85 times historically; 60-day forward avg -2.76%, win rate 35.1%, beating the market by -4.44 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
69 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.69%, win rate 44.9%, beating the market by -1.58 pts on average.
What does 精金 do? Company profile
Overview
3049 對應證券為精金科技股份有限公司普通股，為台灣證券交易所上市公司，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於 1999 年 9 月 18 日，上市日期為 2002 年 9 月 27 日；總部位於台南市善化區北園一路 7 號，台北辦公室位於台北市內湖區行善路 168 巷 21 號 5 樓。董事長為馬維欣，總經理亦為馬維欣，發言人為林忠翰副總經理，代理發言人為周致中副總經理。實收資本額約新台幣 80.20 億元，已發行普通股約 802,010,529 股。年報揭露截至 2026 年 4 月 14 日員工合計 43 人，較 2025 年底 191 人大幅下降，主要與南科廠停產及營運轉型有關。主要股東為瀚宇彩晶股份有限公司，持有 274,079,197 股、持股 34.17%；其他前十大股東包括騰達投資、馬維欣、焦佑麒及外資保管專戶等。公司關係企業包括金蘋果投資、白石股份有限公司、小馬飲夢、銀網投資、Hanns Blegrain Ltd. 及廣東舍客勒科技；其中白石股份有限公司營業項目為旅館業務，2025 年營運已改善並轉盈。
Business
精金原本核心業務為 AMOLED 投射式電容觸控感應器與薄膜電晶體驅動背板之研究、開發、生產、製造與銷售，並兼營一般投資、不動產租賃、物業管理及透過子公司布局旅館與餐飲服務。2025 年營收淨額為新台幣 1,484,327 千元，其中觸控產品 1,095,483 千元，占 73.80%；其他收入 388,844 千元，占 26.20%。2025 年銷售地區為外銷 1,093,524 千元，占 73.67%，內銷 390,803 千元，占 26.33%。主要產品過去包括 Rigid AMOLED 用玻璃觸控感應器、OCTA 觸控感應器、薄膜電晶體驅動背板及電子紙相關背板，應用於智慧型手錶、手機、平板、筆電、工業電腦、航太觸控、電子標籤與電子紙顯示器等。公司年報稱其曾為全球前二大 Rigid 觸控感應器供應商，且在智慧手環/手錶觸控感應器市占率接近 90%，但此為公司自述，未見第三方完整市占驗證。因 AMOLED 觸控感應器競爭加劇、主要客戶提高自製比重、訂單下滑及產能稼動率不足，公司董事會已決議南科 G5.5 AMOLED 觸控感應器產線分階段調整，最終生產日為 2026 年 1 月 31 日；公司後續營收重心預期由大量製造轉向技術授權、策略合作、新事業營運、資產活化、租賃及投資收益。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025 年公司仍以觸控產品為主要收入來源，但合併營收僅小幅成長至新台幣 14.84 億元，全年仍稅後虧損約 4.77 億元，母公司業主淨損約 5.14 億元，主因為 AMOLED 觸控感應器供需失衡、價格競爭、主要客戶策略調整及低稼動率。2026 年起是結構轉折年：公司已於 2026 年 1 月 31 日停止主要南科產線生產，5 月公告處分南科廠房及廠務附屬設施，媒體與公告轉載資訊顯示交易金額約新台幣 64.8 億元、預估處分利益約 40.6 億元，買方為矽品精密；該案若完成，將顯著挹注現金、降低營運壓力並強化資產負債表，但屬一次性資產處分，不能視為穩定本業獲利。2026 至 2028 年主要成長動能預期來自三類：一是資產活化、租賃及物業管理現金流；二是透過白石股份有限公司拓展旅宿服務與餐飲等消費服務；三是盤點既有觸控、TFT 背板、電子紙、工控及航太觸控技術資產，尋求技術授權、策略合作或新產品導入。主要風險包括：停產後月營收基礎大幅縮小、轉型方向與新事業獲利模式尚未完全驗證、資產處分具一次性且仍有交易執行風險、原有觸控製造人才與技術是否能有效移轉、旅宿與投資事業受景氣與管理能力影響，以及公司若缺乏可重複、可擴張的新收入來源，2027 至 2028 年可能面臨營收規模下降但評價由題材支撐的風險。
Supply Chain
- 未揭露 A 公司 2025 年年報列為主要供應商之一，2025 年進貨金額 67,216 千元，占進貨淨額 13.90%；年報因契約約定未揭露公司名稱，非關係人。
- 未揭露 B 公司 2025 年年報列為主要供應商之一，2025 年進貨金額 106,817 千元，占進貨淨額 22.09%；年報因契約約定未揭露公司名稱，非關係人。
- 未揭露 C 公司 2025 年年報列為最大供應商，2025 年進貨金額 108,565 千元，占進貨淨額 22.45%；年報標示為關係人但未揭露名稱。
- 玻璃基板、正負型光阻及化學藥液供應商 精金觸控感應器與 TFT 驅動背板直接與間接材料超過 22 種，包含玻璃基板、正負型光阻與多種化學藥液；年報稱供應商多為長期配合且多數為台灣本地廠商，但未逐一揭露公司名稱。
- 未揭露甲公司 2025 年最大銷貨客戶，銷貨金額 568,982 千元，占全年銷貨淨額 38.33%；年報因契約約定未揭露名稱，非關係人。
- 未揭露乙公司 2025 年第二大銷貨客戶，銷貨金額 256,269 千元，占全年銷貨淨額 17.27%；年報因契約約定未揭露名稱，非關係人。
- 三星及中國 AMOLED 面板廠 MoneyDJ 報導稱精金過去 AMOLED 觸控感應器客戶涵蓋三星及中國 AMOLED 面板廠；三星相關公司非台股掛牌，中國客戶未具名，年報亦未揭露實際客戶名稱。
- 電子紙、工控、航太及終端顯示應用客戶 年報揭露產品應用包含電子標籤、電子書、工業電腦、航太觸控、智慧手錶、手機、平板與筆電等，但具體終端客戶多未揭露。
Competitors
- TPK-KY 宸鴻 3673 台股上市觸控模組與觸控面板業者，為台灣觸控產業主要競爭者之一；與精金過去 AMOLED/觸控感應器業務具產業競合關係。
- GIS-KY 業成 6456 台股上市觸控模組與顯示相關整合服務業者，常與 TPK-KY 並稱觸控雙雄，屬觸控與顯示模組領域競爭者。
- 洋華光電 3622 台股上櫃公司，經營投射式電容觸控面板及相關光電產品，與精金過去觸控面板/觸控感應器產品存在部分競爭或替代關係。
- 藍思科技 中國 A 股上市公司，非台股掛牌；報導指出其拓展玻璃蓋板與觸控感測器相關業務，屬紅色供應鏈競爭壓力來源。
- 京東方、維信諾、和輝光電等中國 AMOLED 面板及整合廠 非台股掛牌或未逐一確認台股代號；精金年報稱主要客戶提高自製比重，造成訂單下滑，推測中國及韓國面板廠內製化是主要競爭壓力，但具體公司名稱未由年報直接揭露。
Sources（12）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.