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3092

鴻碩 Electronic Components As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

1 active signal

Foreign buy

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 鴻碩 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Is 鴻碩 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 9th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -7.2%.
Valuation is high.PE is in the 87th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 82th percentile.
Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 2.1% of volume (net buy).
Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.30

BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
康和-台中 holds 884 lots
sellers have 550 lots left, ~172 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +23% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

Largest holder 康和-台中 has accumulated 884 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
Main distributor 統一 peaked at 386 lots, has sold 57%, 165 left, paused recently.
TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.04pp, mid holders +3, retail -1.05pp — little change.
Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,087 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).

Branch inventory reconstruction

Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.

Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.

Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.

Accumulating

康和-台中兆豐-新竹元大-成功元大-桃興第一金-新竹富邦-竹北

Distributing

統一國泰-敦南新加坡商瑞銀元大-北港兆豐-竹北中國信託

Desks

own scale

玉山-城中台灣摩根士丹利元富-虎尾摩根大通

Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline

Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

康和-台中 +884

sold 0%· still adding
兆豐-新竹 +476

sold 0%· still adding
元大-成功 +444

sold 13%
元大-桃興 +331

sold 0%
第一金-新竹 +326

sold 0%· still adding
富邦-竹北 +245

sold 0%

Distributing

統一 165 left

sold 57%· paused recently
國泰-敦南 118 left

sold 64%· ~21 sessions to clear
新加坡商瑞銀 171 left

sold 40%· paused recently
元大-北港 56 left

sold 76%· paused recently
兆豐-竹北 80 left

sold 48%· ~25 sessions to clear
中國信託 68 left

sold 54%· paused recently

Desks

玉山-城中 -322

unclassified
台灣摩根士丹利 -270

hedge desk · will cover
元富-虎尾 -231

unclassified
摩根大通 -219

hedge desk · will cover

Still selling 550 lots ~172 sessions to bottom at most

Recent buy/sell force +1,379 absorbed / -506 sold buyers slightly ahead

Hedge-desk net short -911 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure

TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check

>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 5%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

40 historical occurrences (since 2014-10-07)

120 days after: historical avg -0.24%

20-day +0.75%

60-day +0.09%

120-day -0.24%

20-day

60-day

120-day

Win

46.2%

41%

40.5%

Sample

Median

-0.84%

-2.29%

-3.88%

Excess

-1.89%

-5.46%

-11.7%

Beat mkt rate

38.5%

30.8%

32.4%

Over 37 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 0.24%, lagged the market by 11.7 pts; win rate 40.5%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

0-20 +38.8%

20-40 +68.9%

40-60 +76.1%

60-80 +26.4%

80-100 -35.7% Now

PE percentile band	Sample days	240-day avg return	Median	Win rate	Avg excess (vs index)
0-20	833	+38.8%	+19.7%	67.6%	+24.8%
20-40	368	+68.9%	+57.8%	85.6%	+46.2%
40-60	156	+76.1%	+65.3%	80.1%	+59.8%
60-80	152	+26.4%	+5.5%	56.6%	+18.7%
80-100 You are here	272	-35.7%	-39.1%	0%	-29.4%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 49.3, at the 81.5th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation

Momentum

Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)

Mid

Expensive (own-history top 1/3)

60-day momentum up

+17.4%

Win rate 56.6% Excess +10.5%

512d

+26.3%

Win rate 68.6% Excess +15.2%

283d

-9.4%

Win rate 33.6% Excess -11.7%

214d

60-day momentum down

+22.5%

Win rate 67.5% Excess +17.9%

569d

+26.8%

Win rate 68.7% Excess +19.6%

67d

Now

-10.3%

Win rate 25.8% Excess -12.7%

256d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 256 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 10.3%, win rate 25.8%, lagged the market by 12.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

16 times historically; 60-day forward avg +12.07%, win rate 43.8%, beating the market by +3.94 pts on average.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

52 times historically; 60-day forward avg -6.01%, win rate 31.2%, beating the market by -5.85 pts on average.

What does 鴻碩 do? Company profile

電子零組件業上市（臺灣證券交易所）

Overview

3092 對應證券為鴻碩，屬臺灣證券交易所上市普通股，產業別為電子零組件業。公司成立於 1991/12/12，總部位於台北市內湖區行愛路169號，統一編號 86318408，董事長為張利榮，總經理及發言人為魯憶萱。公司曾於 2002/06/27 興櫃、2010/05/11 上櫃，並於 2021/05/13 轉上市。實收資本額依不同資料更新點約新台幣 10.655 億至 10.665 億元，已發行普通股約 1.0655 億至 1.0665 億股。員工規模第三方資料列約 1,933 人。主要經營業務為製造、銷售各種電腦訊號線、連接器、連接線。股權方面，董事長法人代表高鵬投資股份有限公司持股約 8.2%，張利榮之關係人持股資料顯示其關係人持股比例較高；公開搜尋結果另顯示 113 年年報前十大股東包含張利榮、張佑維等，但完整前十大股東與最新 2026 名單未能逐項交叉確認。

Business

鴻碩核心本業為連接線與線束產品，產品包含電子訊號線纜、連接器、附連接器接頭之連接線，以及電源線、電線電纜與銅品等，應用於 LCD 顯示器、電腦週邊、電腦系統、通訊網路、消費性電子、車用訊號與電力傳輸等領域。MoneyDJ 整理之 2024 年產品營收占比為連接線 100%，銷售地區以亞洲為主，2024 年亞洲占 89%、其他地區占 11%。公司自 2006 年推動垂直整合，涵蓋電解銅、連接器、EMI 材料、PVC 材料、模具、油壓等製程，MoneyDJ 稱自製率達九成；主要生產基地在中國大陸江蘇蘇州、湖北及越南。新能源轉型方面，公司透過子公司鴻銘智能／鴻鳴智能布局電動車充電槍、充電樁線纜、AC/DC 充電樁、儲能系統、太陽能／混合式逆變器與光充儲整合方案。2026/03 公司宣布旗下鴻銘智能與加拿大 GridVici Solutions Inc. 合作，目標於合約期間銷售 EVSE 充電樁 20,000 套與 BESS 儲能系統 400 套，訂單金額至少約 7 億美元、折合新台幣約 200 億元以上，並拓展北美業務。2025 全年營收約新台幣 16.39 億元，2026 年 1-5 月累計營收約新台幣 7.05 億元、年減 5.62%；2026 年第 1 季 EPS 約 -0.95 元，顯示本業與轉型仍處虧損調整期。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望可分為三條主線。第一，傳統連接線本業仍面臨中國大陸同業搶單、3C 與顯示器需求成熟、毛利率偏低與客戶集中度不透明等壓力，2025 全年營收較 2024 年下滑，且 2025 EPS 為虧損，短期營運體質仍需修復。第二，越南廠與中國湖北等產能調整是改善交期彈性、降低地緣風險與爭取國際客戶的重要變數；但產能移轉費用與效率爬坡可能在 2025-2026 年持續壓抑獲利。第三，新能源與光儲充是中期最大轉型題材，公司已由充電槍線纜延伸至充電樁、儲能櫃、太陽能與能源管理整合，並透過 GridVici 北美合作取得 2026-2030 年能見度；若 2026 下半年至 2028 年出貨按計畫放大，新能源產品占比有機會明顯提升並改善營收規模。但此展望仍有高不確定性：大型訂單需確認實際出貨、驗收、收款、毛利率與售後服務成本；北美認證、關稅、匯率、供應鏈與資金需求也可能影響轉型成效。整體判斷，2025-2026 年屬轉型陣痛與驗證期，2027-2028 年營運能否重估，關鍵在新能源訂單是否穩定量產並帶來可持續毛利，而非僅反映題材。

Supply Chain

Upstream

未揭露之銅線供應商主要原物料之一；公司公開資料揭露產品主要原料包含銅線，但未確認具名供應商。
未揭露之 PVC 粉供應商主要原物料之一；用於線纜與連接線相關產品，具名供應商未確認。
未揭露之連接器與金屬材料供應商主要原料包含連接器類、鋁鎂絲、銅包鋼、馬口鐵等；鴻碩亦具部分垂直整合能力，外部具名供應商未確認。
新能源充電樁、儲能與電力電子零組件供應商新能源產品需逆變器、電力模組、電池、機構件與充電設備零組件；目前未查得鴻碩公開揭露具名上游供應商。

Downstream

GridVici Solutions Inc. 加拿大能源科技公司，與鴻碩子公司鴻銘智能簽署合作協議，拓展北美 EVSE 充電樁與 BESS 儲能系統業務；非台股掛牌。
美系電動車龍頭客戶 2021 年法說新聞稱鴻碩供應美系電動車龍頭中規版與美規版充電槍線纜；公司及新聞未在可查來源中直接揭露正式公司名稱，因此不填股票代號。
LCD 顯示器、電腦週邊、通訊與消費性電子客戶傳統連接線與訊號線下游應用；主要客戶多未具名揭露，終端應用涵蓋顯示器、印表機、電腦系統、通訊網路與消費電子。
充電站、系統整合商與能源營運商新能源業務下游，包含台灣、東南亞與北美光充儲系統整合及充電營運場域；具名客戶除 GridVici 外未充分揭露。

Competitors

今皓實業股份有限公司 3011 台股上市電子零組件與線材／連接線同業，MoneyDJ 將其列為鴻碩同業競爭廠商。
良得電股份有限公司 2462 台股上市連接線、電源線與電子零組件同業，屬鴻碩傳統線材業務競爭者。
良維科技股份有限公司 6290 台股上櫃電子零組件與線材同業，MoneyDJ 將其列為鴻碩同業競爭廠商。
鎰勝工業股份有限公司 6115 台股上櫃電線、電源線與連接線相關同業，MoneyDJ 將其列為鴻碩同業競爭廠商。
充電樁與儲能系統整合業者新能源轉型後的競爭者還包括國內外 EVSE、BESS、能源管理與光儲充系統整合公司；個別競爭名單未能由公司公開資料完整確認。

Sources（25）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.