Ask AI to review this stock
Copy the prompt to get recent events, historical reactions, and a short research brief.
Tell your AI:
Help me set up FinLab and analyze 3221 台嘉碩. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=3221
3221
quality needs a look, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 台嘉碩 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
-
Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 37th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.6%.
-
Valuation is high.PE is in the 95th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 96th percentile.
-
Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -0.7% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Distribution to retail — bearish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +115% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 國泰-敦南 has accumulated 564 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 港商野村 peaked at 1,371 lots, has sold 77%, 315 left, ~9 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -2.16pp, mid holders +0, retail +1.55pp — drifting down to retail.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,421 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 國泰-敦南 +564
- 富邦-虎尾 +316
- 群益金鼎-高雄 +303
- 元大-虎尾 +291
- 國票證券 +190
- 國泰-高雄 +170
Distributing
- 港商野村 315 left
- 美林 420 left
- 凱基-站前 116 left
- 台新-信義 97 left
- 元大-草屯 71 left
- 華南永昌-南京 285 left
Desks
- 永豐金證券 -1,108
- 凱基-台北 -840
- 群益金鼎-東門 -675
- 玉山-高雄 -609
Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 353 | +7.2% | -0.5% | 49.6% | -24.1% |
| 20-40 | 155 | +25.4% | +29.2% | 62.6% | +15.6% |
| 40-60 | 240 | +30.8% | +8% | 54.6% | +8.1% |
| 60-80 | 407 | +46.6% | +39.6% | 62.7% | +1.2% |
| 80-100 You are here | 654 | +0.5% | -4.7% | 45.1% | -17.1% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 204.48, at the 95.6th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 581 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 23.8%, win rate 54.9%, beat the market by 3.4%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
28 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.42%, win rate 51.9%, beating the market by +1.45 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
68 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.01%, win rate 41.5%, beating the market by -0.67 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
51 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.26%, win rate 56.9%, beating the market by +3.51 pts on average.
What does 台嘉碩 do? Company profile
Overview
台灣嘉碩科技股份有限公司成立於1997年11月10日，總部位於桃園市平鎮區工業二路3號，股票於2004年7月27日登錄興櫃、2006年2月22日上櫃，為營運公司普通股。公司英文簡稱TST，統一編號16264983。董事長為黃鈺同，總經理/發言人依2026年Yahoo股市與Goodinfo資料為李昆鴻；部分舊資料仍列陳瑞鴻，故以較新公開資料為準。實收資本額約新台幣10.39億至10.51億元、普通股約1.04億至1.05億股，差異來自不同資料更新時間。員工規模約500人。主要股東方面，2022年新聞揭露聯電集團旗下士鼎創業投資持有約5.83%、為最大法人股東；較舊2020資料顯示士鼎創投約5.79%、黃鈺同約2.62%。2026年Yahoo資料顯示董監持股比例約7.87%。
Business
台嘉碩主力為頻率控制與射頻前端相關元件，包含表面聲波SAW元件（RF SAW濾波器、IF濾波器、SAW共振器、雙工器、感測晶片等）、體波/石英元件（石英晶體、石英濾波器、XO、VCXO、TCXO、VCTCXO等）、BAW濾波器及相關模組。應用涵蓋手機與基地台、Wi-Fi與網通模組、NB、IPC、雲端儲存、智慧電網、RFID、GPS、藍牙、車用遙控器、胎壓感測器、車用天線、物聯網、醫療、國防、低軌衛星、AI伺服器與光通訊。商業模式為自有品牌與OEM/ODM並行，提供標準品、客製頻率元件、濾波器設計/製造與後段封裝/測試服務。2025年營收約新台幣22.31億元；MoneyDJ資料顯示2025年營收比重約頻率元件94.57%、其他5.05%、生技產品0.38%。舊公開說明書指出國內具規模SAW生產廠商以台嘉碩最具代表性，全球SAW/BAW與石英元件市場則面對日、美、歐大廠競爭。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025年公司營收約新台幣22.31億元，年增約2.34%，但因子公司嘉碩生醫與韓國Genbody訴訟相關費用、匯兌損失等因素，獲利偏弱，EPS約0.08元。2026年展望轉為正向，公開法說與媒體報導指出主要動能來自AI伺服器與光通訊模組、WiFi 7升級、低軌衛星、國防、無人機、網通與工業物聯網；公司差分振盪器、低抖動時脈元件、SAW/BAW濾波器、高精度石英元件已切入AI GPU模組、AI伺服器交換器及衛星終端/地面接收站等供應鏈。菲律賓新廠因應客戶非中非台NCNT供應鏈需求，規劃於2026年4月量產，產品以SAW濾波器與石英晶振為主。轉投資韓國Sawnics與中國NewSonic合作取得陸系一線手機品牌濾波器訂單，台嘉碩可承接部分後段製程，2026年起有望貢獻營收。2027至2028年推估成長關鍵在WiFi 7/8、5G-Advanced、6G前期研發、LEO衛星終端、AI高速網通與車用/工控高可靠度元件需求；風險包括手機與網通景氣循環、車用ASP壓力、匯率、訴訟費用、菲律賓新廠爬坡良率與成本、BAW/Si-SAW技術競爭、村田/TDK/太陽誘電/高通RF360等國際大廠價格與技術壓力，以及大陸供應鏈在地化競爭。2027至2028數字性預測未見公司正式指引，屬產業趨勢推估。
Supply Chain
- 村田製作所 Murata Manufacturing 日本上市公司；媒體報導台嘉碩與村田有車用、工控SAW濾波器策略合作/轉單關係，屬重要合作與需求來源。
- Sawnics Inc. 韓國濾波器製造商、台嘉碩轉投資公司；2026年與NewSonic合作取得陸系手機品牌濾波器訂單，台嘉碩可承接部分後段製程。
- NewSonic 中國無晶圓廠半導體業者；具Si-SAW技術，與Sawnics合作供應高性能Si-SAW晶圓、濾波器與射頻模組。
- OPPO、vivo等陸系一線手機品牌 非台股掛牌；依媒體報導為NewSonic/Sawnics合作案終端手機品牌客戶，台嘉碩間接受惠後段製程訂單。
- AI伺服器、光通訊模組、低軌衛星終端、國防與無人機客戶 公司法說與媒體揭露之重點應用客群，但未逐一具名；包含GPU模組、AI伺服器交換器、衛星地面站與用戶終端等。
Competitors
- 台灣晶技 3042 台股上市；石英晶體、振盪器與頻率元件主要同業，國內資訊產業石英元件市占高。
- 希華晶體科技 2484 台股上市；石英元件同業，亦布局BAW相關晶圓/高頻濾波器技術。
- 安碁科技 6174 台股上櫃；石英晶體與頻率控制元件同業。
- 加高電子 8182 台股上櫃；石英元件同業。
- 泰藝電子 8289 台股上櫃；石英晶體、振盪器與頻率控制元件同業。
- 晶越晶體科技 台股上櫃；石英晶體與頻率元件同業。
- 村田製作所 Murata Manufacturing 日本上市公司；全球SAW/BAW與射頻元件大廠，亦與台嘉碩有合作/轉單關係。
- TDK/EPCOS 日本/德國系全球電子元件集團；SAW/射頻元件國際競爭者。
- Qualcomm RF360 美國上市公司高通相關射頻前端業務；全球RF濾波器與模組競爭者。
- Taiyo Yuden 太陽誘電 日本上市公司；石英、陶瓷與射頻元件國際競爭者。
Sources（22）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.