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3426

台興 Electric Machinery As of 2026-07-29 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, fair valuation, no active signal today.

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 台興 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
估值 39品質 42成長 52動能 50籌碼 50

Is 台興 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • 獲利能力偏弱。營業利益率僅勝過全市場約 46% 的個股。最新一季 ROE 約 1.0%。

  • 估值中性。本益比位居全市場第 54 百分位。以自身歷史看，目前本益比約在第 100 百分位。

Chip flow

Bullish +0.88
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
  • 群益金鼎-大甲 holds 897 lots
  • sellers have 5 lots left, ~25 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +18% · branches to 2026-06-01· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 群益金鼎-大甲 has accumulated 897 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
  • Main distributor 華南永昌-古亭 peaked at 135 lots, has sold 68%, 43 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.00pp, mid holders +2, retail -5.81pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -12 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
群益金鼎-大甲永豐金證券群益金鼎-東門新光-高雄國泰-館前大昌-安康
Distributing
華南永昌-古亭第一金-大稻埕台新-高雄中國信託-忠孝富邦-台北新光-台中
Desks
own scale
中國信託-嘉義元大-桃園元大-中山北路元大-館前
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 群益金鼎-大甲 +897
    sold 0%
  • 永豐金證券 +639
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 群益金鼎-東門 +217
    sold 0%
  • 新光-高雄 +210
    sold 0%
  • 國泰-館前 +195
    sold 3%
  • 大昌-安康 +189
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 華南永昌-古亭 43 left
    sold 68%· paused recently
  • 第一金-大稻埕 50 left
    sold 37%· paused recently
  • 台新-高雄 34 left
    sold 31%· paused recently
  • 中國信託-忠孝 13 left
    sold 57%· paused recently
  • 富邦-台北 15 left
    sold 35%· paused recently
  • 新光-台中 3 left
    sold 83%· paused recently

Desks

  • 中國信託-嘉義 -275
    unclassified
  • 元大-桃園 -236
    unclassified
  • 元大-中山北路 -145
    unclassified
  • 元大-館前 -131
    unclassified
Still selling 5 lots ~25 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +92 absorbed / -2 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

估值位階與後續報酬

把這檔股票每天的本益比，換算成「截至當天為止的自身歷史百分位」，再看不同估值位階之後 240 個交易日的還原股價報酬。

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 186+10.1% +8.8% 100% -31.4%
20-40 159+12.2% +11.6% 97.5% -18%
40-60 173+8.7% +11.3% 69.4% -18.9%
60-80 358+15.4% +11.3% 86% -0.3%
80-100 You are here432+2.4% +3.7% 70.8% -16.6%

百分位以當天為止的自身歷史滾動計算（expanding），不含未來資訊；前瞻報酬為還原股價 240 交易日。樣本日重疊，僅供分布參考。

目前本益比約 25.03，落在自身歷史第 99.8 百分位，屬於 80-100 區間。

估值 × 動能的歷史對照

把自身歷史的每一天，依估值位階（本益比自身歷史三分位）與 60 日動能方向分成六格，看各情境之後 120 個交易日的還原股價報酬。

Valuation
Momentum
便宜
中等
昂貴
向上
+4.3%
Win rate 71.7% Excess -13.3%
99d
+3.2%
Win rate 68.9% Excess -5.1%
193d
Now
+4.6%
Win rate 63% Excess -7.5%
435d
向下
+7.9%
Win rate 75% Excess -21.2%
172d
+5.8%
Win rate 72.3% Excess +3.5%
177d
+10.6%
Win rate 87.5% Excess +3%
144d

Currently in “昂貴（自身歷史後 1/3） × 60 日動能向上”: across 435 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 4.6%, win rate 63%, lagged the market by 7.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

這個訊號在全市場是否站得住腳

「月營收年增率 ≥ 20%」過去 243 個月，每月平均約 404 檔個股符合條件；這些個股之後 60 個交易日的還原股價報酬，等權平均為 6.99%，平均贏過大盤 2.32 個百分點，在 64.2% 的月份中跑贏發行量加權股價報酬指數。

每月對全市場符合訊號的股票取等權平均前瞻 60 日還原報酬，再對月份平均；超額相對發行量加權股價報酬指數

目前未成立的訊號（歷史統計供參）

這些訊號現在沒有發生，列出歷史樣本以供對照

股價創 252 日新高（突破日）

Pending

還原股價首次站上過去 252 個交易日最高；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

9 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.14%, win rate 55.6%, beating the market by -5.35 pts on average.

月營收年增率 ≥ 20%（公告截止日起算）

Pending

單月營收年增率達 20% 以上；事件日為公告截止日後第一個交易日，避免提前用到未公告資訊

32 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.6%, win rate 65.5%, beating the market by +0.31 pts on average.

外資連續買超滿 5 個交易日

Pending

外資（不含自營商）買賣超連續 5 日為正，事件日為第 5 日；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

方法與限制

  • 所有報酬以還原股價（etl:adj_close）計算，已還原除權息與股票分割。
  • 超額報酬以發行量加權股價報酬指數（含息）為基準。
  • 估值位階與分位統計以「截至當天為止的自身歷史」滾動計算，不使用未來資訊。
  • 營收訊號的事件日對齊到公告截止日後第一個交易日，避免提前用到尚未公開的資訊。
  • 事件樣本之間日期可能重疊，統計僅描述歷史分布，樣本數較少時參考價值有限。

本頁內容為歷史資料統計與教育用途，不構成投資建議。投資一定有風險，過去績效不代表未來表現，交易前請自行評估並承擔風險。