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3607
quality needs a look, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 谷崧 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 25th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.2%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 72th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 86th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -0.1% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +10% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 凱基-台北 has accumulated 664 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 671 lots, has sold 65%, 237 left, ~13 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.34pp, mid holders -1, retail -0.45pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -285 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 凱基-台北 +664
- 國票-北高雄 +626
- 台灣企銀-桃園 +335
- 台新-中壢 +253
- 元大-大灣 +235
- 元大-南屯 +204
Distributing
- 台灣摩根士丹利 237 left
- 美商高盛 236 left
- 摩根大通 289 left
- 台新-松德 72 left
- 安泰-楠梓 101 left
- 台新 59 left
Desks
- 台灣企銀 -620
- 新加坡商瑞銀 -528
- 華南永昌-板橋 -335
- 元大-草屯 -271
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 334 | -22.7% | -33.3% | 23.7% | -117% |
| 20-40 | 151 | -1.2% | -7.7% | 39.7% | -8.7% |
| 40-60 | 43 | +6% | -5.6% | 30.2% | +3.7% |
| 60-80 | 270 | -0.9% | -0.8% | 50% | -66% |
| 80-100 You are here | 190 | -22.8% | -27.2% | 11.1% | -171.8% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 43.85, at the 85.7th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
(13d)
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 253 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 0.4%, win rate 50.2%, lagged the market by 17%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
21 times historically; 60-day forward avg -4.8%, win rate 35%, beating the market by -7.16 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
38 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.1%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +0.3 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
57 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.05%, win rate 52.8%, beating the market by -2.15 pts on average.
What does 谷崧 do? Company profile
Overview
3607 對應證券為谷崧，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，產業類別為電子零組件業。公司成立於1989年6月14日，上市日期為2009年10月28日，總部位於桃園市中壢區中正路1274巷48號。董事長為洪煥青，總經理為張文桐，發言人為許嘉宏。實收資本額約新台幣12.166億元，已發行股數約1.22億股。2025年年報揭露截至2026年4月17日合併從業員工533人；2025年度平均員工數559人、平均年齡41.56歲、平均服務年資13.87年。2025年年報主要股東名單包括張文桐持股3.30%、洪煥青2.75%、吳文祥2.57%、禾豐聯合股份有限公司1.64%、鍾秀玉1.49%、中國信託商業銀行受託保管不二精機株式會社投資專戶1.32%、劉詔1.28%、吳映錡1.25%、吳宜達1.04%、鄭雪梅0.99%。
Business
谷崧為精密模具開發、塑膠射出成型與表面處理零組件製造商，主要經營各種模具、金屬零件、塑膠成型製品及其零件，以及電子、電機零件之開發製造加工買賣。2025年度合併營收淨額新台幣27.84296億元，年減11.24%；產品營收結構為塑膠零組件22.70153億元、占81.54%，模具1.28195億元、占4.60%，原物料買賣等3.85948億元、占13.86%。主要產品用途包含手機機殼、NB、數位相機、遊戲機、耳機外殼、智能喇叭、運動相機、掃地機、額溫槍、充氣寶、光學零組件、電動車充電樁等。公司商業模式以接受客戶委託開發模具與生產塑膠零組件為主，提供產品設計、模具設計製造、塑膠射出、噴漆、印刷、雷射雕刻、二次加工、組裝等垂直整合服務。2025年銷售地區以中國為主，新台幣23.84358億元，占約85.64%；台灣1.51321億元、美國0.06792億元、其他2.41825億元。公司年報因保密以代號揭露主要客戶，2025年前三大客戶分別占銷貨12.32%、11.24%、6.16%，最大客戶占比不高；MoneyDJ報導指出近期出貨動能曾仰賴日系手機客戶。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025年公司營收較2024年下滑11.24%，營業利益仍為虧損新台幣8022.8萬元，但受營業外收支挹注，稅後淨利為221萬元，獲利能力仍薄弱。2026年公司年報預估塑膠零組件銷售量為322,655仟件，經營方針為強化研發生產、調整產品組合、開發利基產品線、垂直延伸核心技術、整合上下游、擴大產品廣度、降低生產與管理成本，並嚴控庫存及應收帳款。研發方向包含雙色雙料IMD成形、NMT應用、全自動貼膜、全自動植入板金、NMT結合陶瓷塑膠、空氣轉印、漸變塗裝、多材質成型、濺鍍製程、PCR材料導入等；2026年預計投入研發費用310萬元，其中免噴漆材料導入80萬元、新增濺鍍製程120萬元。MoneyDJ於2024年底報導，公司看好車用與消費品等自製比重高、生命週期較長的產品線，車用營收占比有機會由2024年的14%至15%挑戰20%，有助毛利率改善。2027至2028年公司未提供具體量化財測，合理推估重點仍在非3C領域、車用小型塑件、醫療與利基消費品、低碳材料與表面處理技術；主要風險為3C產品成熟與生命週期縮短、中國供應鏈競爭、中美貿易與產能外移、價格競爭、匯率波動、環保與碳盤查成本、產品缺料或客戶安規問題、營業規模縮減下固定成本吸收不足。
Supply Chain
- 塑膠原料製造商 年報揭露塑膠製品製造業上游為塑膠原料製造商；谷崧主要材料為塑膠粒及產品相關零組件，供應商眾多且分散。
- A供應商（未揭露） 2025年度最大供應商，年報因契約或保密以代號揭露，進貨金額新台幣3.39808億元，占全年進貨淨額24.72%，非關係人。
- 模具與表面處理設備、材料供應商 支援模具加工、射出成形、噴塗、印刷、電鍍、雷雕、蒸著、濺鍍、鍍膜等製程；年報未揭露具名供應商。
- A客戶（未揭露） 2025年度第一大銷貨客戶，年報以代號揭露，銷貨新台幣3.43030億元，占全年銷貨12.32%，非關係人。
- C客戶（未揭露） 2025年度主要銷貨客戶之一，年報以代號揭露，銷貨新台幣3.38488億元，占全年銷貨11.24%，非關係人。
- B客戶（未揭露） 2025年度主要銷貨客戶之一，年報以代號揭露，銷貨新台幣1.71479億元，占全年銷貨6.16%，非關係人。
- 日系手機廠客戶 MoneyDJ報導提及近月出貨動能主要仰賴日系手機廠；客戶名稱未揭露，可能為海外品牌或其供應鏈。
- 通訊、資訊、消費電子、家電、醫療器材、汽機車業客戶 年報揭露下游包含需要塑膠外殼或塑膠射出零組件之通訊、資訊電子、消費電子、家電、醫療器材與汽機車製造業。
Competitors
- 英濟股份有限公司 3294 年報列為主要競爭對手之一，競爭項目為塑膠射出零組件及表面處理；台股上櫃公司。
- 位速科技股份有限公司 3508 年報列為主要競爭對手之一，競爭項目為塑膠射出零組件及表面處理；台股上市櫃掛牌公司。
- 新至陞科技股份有限公司 3679 年報列為主要競爭對手之一，競爭項目為塑膠射出零組件及表面處理；台股上市公司。
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.