Ask AI to review this stock
Copy the prompt to get recent events, historical reactions, and a short research brief.
Tell your AI:
Help me set up FinLab and analyze 3615 安可. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=3615
3615
quality needs a look, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 安可 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
-
Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 27th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.7%.
-
Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 76th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 72th percentile.
-
Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 0.3% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Distribution to retail — bearish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +106% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 台灣摩根士丹利 has accumulated 897 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 港商野村 peaked at 966 lots, has sold 71%, 276 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -1.73pp, mid holders -5, retail +5.35pp — drifting down to retail.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,326 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 台灣摩根士丹利 +897
- 永豐金-員林 +491
- 國泰-敦南 +448
- 統一-台中 +259
- 華南永昌-虎尾 +227
- 國票證券 +194
Distributing
- 港商野村 276 left
- 摩根大通 422 left
- 元大-竹科 116 left
- 群益金鼎 42 left
- 凱基-東港 206 left
- 元大證券 148 left
Desks
- 兆豐-埔墘 -1,080
- 凱基-長庚 -607
- 凱基-台北 -564
- 合庫證券 -464
Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 137 | +8.3% | +10.4% | 62.8% | -17.5% |
| 20-40 | 692 | -12.8% | -21.1% | 35.8% | -40.6% |
| 40-60 | 469 | -2.2% | -12.3% | 32.6% | -12.6% |
| 60-80 You are here | 315 | +19.6% | +20.4% | 74.3% | -26.2% |
| 80-100 | 438 | +14.9% | +24.7% | 69.6% | -7.3% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 52.04, at the 72.3th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 477 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 2.7%, win rate 51.2%, lagged the market by 8.4%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
17 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.56%, win rate 43.8%, beating the market by -1.41 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
80 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.58%, win rate 48.8%, beating the market by +4.53 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
55 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.75%, win rate 48.1%, beating the market by -1.36 pts on average.
What does 安可 do? Company profile
Overview
3615 對應證券為安可光電，為櫃買中心上櫃普通股，非 ETF/ETN/權證等非營運證券。公司前身為錸德科技光電事業群／ITO Plant，2007-09-28 自錸德科技分割設立，2007-10-19 核准設立，2008-01-11 公開發行，2008-07-24 登錄興櫃，2009-04-15 上櫃。總部與主要工廠位於新竹縣湖口鄉新竹工業區光復北路 10 號，另有台中分公司。董事長為葉垂景，總經理兼發言人為姜明君。依 2024 年報，114/04/22 流通在外普通股 68,466,976 股，核定股本 100,000,000 股；Yahoo 股市資料列示股本 684,669,760 元。員工規模依年報為 2024 年底 68 人、2025/03/31 為 63 人。主要股東依 2025/04/22 年報揭露：錸德科技 14,563,740 股、持股 21.27%，中富投資 3.33%，花旗受託保管瑞銀歐洲 SE 投資專戶 1.62%，陳彩俐 1.23%，郭文泰 1.02%，其他前十大股東持股均低於 1%。股利政策原則上盈餘分派時提撥不低於可分配盈餘之 50% 為股東股利，現金股利占股利總額 20% 至 100%，股票股利 0% 至 80%；2024 年度擬配現金股利每股 0.3 元。
Business
安可光電為專業鍍膜與導電玻璃材料加工廠，主要產品為 ITO 導電玻璃，具高透光率、高均勻性與高信賴性，是觸控面板、LCD 顯示面板、有機發光顯示面板、車用顯示、工控與商用顯示等應用的上游關鍵材料。製程包括進料檢驗、玻璃清洗、自動上下料、濺鍍、自動傳輸、自動檢查、自動包裝、最終檢查與出貨。公司亦投入圖案化藍寶石基板 PSS、奈米壓印、光學鍍膜、電鑄與蝕刻等技術，研發方向含金屬光柵、環境光感測、3D 人臉辨識、AR 眼鏡奈米光柵、車用高阻 ITO、浮空觸控、電致變色後視鏡、鈣鈦礦薄膜太陽能鍍膜等。營收結構方面，年報未以完整產品別表格揭露精確占比，但於市場占有率段落說明：光電產品仍為營運主力、約占七成，化學品約占三成；2024 年銷售地區為亞洲 99.38%、歐洲 0.61%、美洲 0.01%。2024 年銷售淨額 1,020,699 仟元，主要客戶以匿名方式揭露，客戶 C 占 31.86%、客戶 D 占 21.22%，其他占 46.92%；2025 年第一季客戶 D 占 20.89%、客戶 C 占 19.05%、客戶 E 占 11.38%、其他占 48.68%。商業模式以承接客戶規格，對玻璃基板、靶材等原料進行濺鍍與光學薄膜加工，供應中下游觸控面板、顯示面板、車用、工控、商用顯示與特殊光學應用。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025 至 2028 年展望以轉型利基型產品與高附加價值鍍膜應用為核心。公司 2024 年報對 2025 年營業計畫明確提出：鞏固既有客戶、開發新客群、將營運重點轉至利基型產品、與上下游供應鏈合作、在既有技術基礎上開發新產品與新應用。成長動能包括：一、車用觸控與顯示面板需求提升，公司已將導電玻璃應用由消費性觸控逐步轉向商用、車用觸控、顯示面板與電致變色鏡片；二、AR 眼鏡、環境光感測器、3D 人臉辨識等奈米壓印與金屬光柵產品，2024 年報揭露相關研發預計至 2025/12/31，總預計再投入經費 19,600 仟元；三、車用後視鏡電致變色膜層、高阻 ITO 與浮空觸控等差異化產品，有機會改善產品組合；四、OCA 加工沖型產品為主力，並規劃擴增半導體產業新客戶所需 DAF、PSA 產品；五、化學品業務銷量穩定，積極擴充通路與高毛利特殊建案產品。2026 至 2028 年屬較長期推估，公司公開資料未提供量化財測；合理觀察重點為車用／工控／商用顯示滲透率、AR 與感測光學件是否量產放大、DAF/PSA 半導體材料客戶開發、產線稼動率與良率改善。主要風險包括觸控與顯示材料長期價格競爭、下游客戶要求降價、終端消費電子需求不穩、單一年度客戶 C/D 合計占比偏高但未逾 50%、玻璃基板與靶材供應／價格波動、匯率波動、能源與電價成本、地緣政治與美中科技限制，以及公司新產品由研發轉量產的時程與訂單能見度不確定。
Supply Chain
- 正達國際光電股份有限公司 3149 年報列為玻璃基板、靶材主要供應商之一；台股上市公司，業務為光電玻璃與玻璃製品製造。
- 銘旺科技股份有限公司 2429 年報列為玻璃基板、靶材主要供應商之一；台股上市公司，亦屬光電面板／光學玻璃加工相關供應鏈。
- Advanced Nano Products Co., Ltd. 年報列為玻璃基板、靶材主要供應商之一；韓國公司，非台股掛牌，產品包含 ITO sputtering target 等奈米材料。
- 玻璃基板與靶材供應商 安可主要原料為玻璃基板，其他原料包括靶材；年報稱供貨充足、來源不虞匱乏，除已揭露供應商外其餘未具名。
- 客戶 C（年報匿名揭露） 2024 年銷貨淨額占比 31.86%，2025 年第一季占比 19.05%；年報以代號匿名揭露，未能確認是否台股公司。
- 客戶 D（年報匿名揭露） 2024 年銷貨淨額占比 21.22%，2025 年第一季占比 20.89%；年報以代號匿名揭露，未能確認是否台股公司。
- 客戶 E（年報匿名揭露） 2025 年第一季銷貨淨額占比 11.38%；年報以代號匿名揭露，未能確認是否台股公司。
- 觸控面板、顯示面板、車用與工控模組廠 安可導電玻璃加工後成為中下游觸控面板或顯示面板原料，終端應用涵蓋智慧型手機、平板、電子書、筆電、車用衛星定位、液晶監視器、AIO PC、ATM、自動售票機與公共資訊查詢站等；公開年報未具名全部客戶。
Competitors
- 正達國際光電股份有限公司 3149 上市光電玻璃與玻璃製品廠，與安可在光電玻璃加工、玻璃基板與顯示觸控供應鏈部分領域具競合關係；同時亦為安可年報揭露供應商之一。
- 銘旺科技股份有限公司 2429 上市光電業公司，產品含光學面板、觸控玻璃、光學鍍膜玻璃、薄化與強化玻璃等，與安可在光學玻璃加工與觸控顯示材料市場部分重疊；同時亦為安可年報揭露供應商之一。
- 日韓 ITO 導電基板與靶材廠商 公司官網與年報指出 ITO 導電基板鍍膜技術主要由台灣、韓國、日本等少數廠商具備；具體廠名未完整揭露，非台股掛牌或未確認者 stock_id 置空。
- 中國光電玻璃與 Mini/Micro LED 玻璃基板廠商 中國廠商近年投入玻璃基 Mini/Micro LED 與光電玻璃精加工，對中長期價格與客戶開發形成競爭壓力；非台股掛牌。
Sources（12）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.