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4164

承業醫 Biotech & Healthcare As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 承業醫 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 65Quality 41Growth 90Momentum 20Chips 5

Is 承業醫 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 51th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.5%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 61th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 65th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -7.8% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 80.2%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.34
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 富邦-仁愛 holds 1,497 lots
  • sellers have 1,013 lots left, ~68 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -13% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 富邦-仁愛 has accumulated 1,497 lots since the start (sold 1%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 台新-花蓮 peaked at 447 lots, has sold 41%, 262 left, ~16 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -7.48pp, mid holders -3, retail +6.51pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -2,629 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
富邦-仁愛兆豐-大安統一-城中國泰-忠孝國泰-敦南臺銀-金山
Distributing
台新-花蓮合庫-基隆元大證券統一-南京康和-南崁台新-台中
Desks
own scale
港商麥格理國泰證券台灣摩根士丹利美林
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 富邦-仁愛 +1,497
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 兆豐-大安 +1,089
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 統一-城中 +981
    sold 1%
  • 國泰-忠孝 +965
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰-敦南 +717
    sold 8%· still adding
  • 臺銀-金山 +570
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 台新-花蓮 262 left
    sold 41%· ~16 sessions to clear
  • 合庫-基隆 280 left
    sold 34%· ~19 sessions to clear
  • 元大證券 143 left
    sold 42%· ~37 sessions to clear
  • 統一-南京 121 left
    sold 42%· ~14 sessions to clear
  • 康和-南崁 37 left
    sold 76%· paused recently
  • 台新-台中 35 left
    sold 77%· paused recently

Desks

  • 港商麥格理 -3,740
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 國泰證券 -2,206
    unclassified
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -1,855
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 美林 -1,812
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 1,013 lots ~68 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,638 absorbed / -577 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -1,424 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 80.21%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

74 historical occurrences (since 2012-10-24)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 52.2%, Sample 67, Median +0.28%, Excess -1.23%, Beat mkt rate 40.3%；60-day: Win 36.4%, Sample 66, Median -3.28%, Excess -4.79%, Beat mkt rate 30.3%；120-day: Win 42.2%, Sample 64, Median -3.64%, Excess -7.02%, Beat mkt rate 40.6%

120 days after: historical avg +0.39%

20-day -0.35%
60-day -1.34%
120-day +0.39%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
52.2%
36.4%
42.2%
Sample
67
66
64
Median
+0.28%
-3.28%
-3.64%
Excess
-1.23%
-4.79%
-7.02%
Beat mkt rate
40.3%
30.3%
40.6%

Over 64 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 0.39%, lagged the market by 7.02 pts; win rate 42.2%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 798+6.6% +3.8% 59.1% -12.3%
20-40 452+30.4% +30.7% 75.2% +20.5%
40-60 222-6.6% -9.8% 30.2% -22.8%
60-80 You are here296-17.3% -18.9% 7.4% -46.9%
80-100 392-12.3% -18% 20.7% -45.2%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 29.52, at the 65.1th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+7.9%
Win rate 58.2% Excess -0.9%
512d
-0.1%
Win rate 45.7% Excess +0.1%
140d
-11.5%
Win rate 12.2% Excess -29.2%
295d
60-day momentum down
+3.8%
Win rate 50.5% Excess -4.1%
602d
Now
-1.7%
Win rate 43% Excess -8.2%
342d
-1.8%
Win rate 31.9% Excess -21.5%
389d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum down”: across 342 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 1.7%, win rate 43%, lagged the market by 8.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

7 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.75%, win rate 42.9%, beating the market by +2.62 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

63 times historically; 60-day forward avg -1.95%, win rate 22.6%, beating the market by -5.53 pts on average.

What does 承業醫 do? Company profile

生技醫療業；高階醫療設備代理、醫療管理服務、藥局通路、輻照服務與長照布局 上市（台灣證券交易所）

Overview

4164 對應承業生醫投資控股股份有限公司，簡稱承業醫，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股。控股公司成立於2009年11月27日，集團第一家子公司成立於1977年；2012年10月24日上市。總部位於台北市內湖區行愛路88號。依公司與公開資訊，截至2026年6月，董事長為李典穎，副董事長為李沛霖，總經理為李明倫。實收資本額約新台幣1,953,109,890元，普通股約195,310,989股。公司官網主要股東名單（2026年04月06日）列示：Princeton Healthcare Limited持股28,257,983股、14.47%；李典穎9,613,985股、4.92%；李沛霖6,426,151股、3.29%；凃水城5,239,033股、2.68%；匯信股份有限公司4,722,000股、2.42%；陳素琴3,863,808股、1.98%；嘉源投資有限公司3,481,000股、1.78%；村上田原股份有限公司3,053,000股、1.56%；匯豐（台灣）商業銀行受託保管摩根士丹利國際有限公司投資專戶2,099,342股、1.07%；張珩1,611,182股、0.82%。113年度年報揭露母公司承業生醫投控截至2025年3月31日員工人數為56人、平均年齡約41.4歲、平均服務年資約8.6年；此數字不等於集團所有子公司總員工數。主要子公司包括久和醫療、多模式、九和科技、九和生物、新和生物、東霖、華霖、醫世紀、富康活力醫藥、CHC Healthcare (UK)、杏業、欣安、承業長照等。

Business

承業醫是以控股平台管理醫療產業子公司，核心商業模式包括：一、代理與銷售高階醫療設備，範圍涵蓋放射腫瘤、影像醫學、神經醫學、外科、眼科、復健科、牙科與AI智慧醫療；二、醫療管理服務，包含醫療場所規劃設計、場地施工、設備安裝測試、科室經營管理、醫療技術人員教育訓練、設備維修保養與後續升級；三、設備出租與長期合作模式，降低醫療院所一次性資本支出並創造穩定租金與維護收入；四、富康活力醫藥等藥局與保健食品通路；五、新和生物輻照服務，使用比利時IBA光子/電子束系統，應用於醫療滅菌、食品保鮮、材料改性、半導體/航太材料測試等；六、長照與大健康布局。2025年度合併營收為新台幣4,398,280仟元，其中客戶合約收入3,271,850仟元、出租收入1,114,829仟元、其他11,601仟元；客戶合約收入中，醫療器材及藥品銷售2,844,500仟元，維護保修及其他勞務362,440仟元，其他64,910仟元。2026年第一季合併營收為1,160,484仟元，其中客戶合約收入893,991仟元、出租收入262,683仟元、其他3,810仟元；客戶合約收入中醫療器材及藥品銷售785,099仟元，維護保修及其他勞務90,795仟元，其他18,097仟元。公司財報以單一應報導部門揭露，未提供完整事業別損益。主要客戶為台灣及海外醫療院所、醫院科室與藥局終端消費者；輻照事業潛在客戶則延伸至醫材、食品、半導體、航太與材料相關產業。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年已見營收回升，合併營收43.98億元高於2024年36.01億元，主要受惠醫療設備銷售、醫管服務與新事業擴張。2025至2028年的主要成長動能包括：一、高階醫療設備換機與新增需求，尤其放射腫瘤、神經醫學、質子治療、MRI直線加速器、Elekta系統、IBA質子/輻照相關設備；二、醫管服務深化，從單純設備代理擴至科室規劃、設備合作、維護、培訓與營運顧問，若醫療院所資本支出維持，出租與服務收入可提供較穩定現金流；三、連鎖藥局通路，市場報導指出富康藥局2025年約60家店、公司規劃持續展店並可能朝獨立掛牌方向發展，但實際家數、獲利與掛牌時程仍需以公司公告為準；四、輻照事業，新和生物位於新竹科學園區銅鑼園區的輻照工廠訴求無殘留物、可替代部分化學氣體滅菌，應用從醫療、食品擴至半導體、航太、低軌衛星材料測試，2026年後若客戶驗證與產能利用率提升，可能成為新成長曲線；五、長照與大健康，台灣進入超高齡社會，公司與日本櫻十字集團合作布局長照、日照、高齡住宅、住宿式機構與預防醫學，屬較長期投資。主要風險包括：醫療設備經銷權變動、歐美日原廠價格與匯率波動、高階設備採購認列時程延遲、醫材查驗登記與醫療法規、醫院資本支出循環、輻照新事業產能利用率與認證進度、藥局展店與併購整合成本、長照事業回收期較長，以及利率與負債成本。2027至2028的量化成長幅度目前缺乏公司正式指引，僅能定性判斷成長取決於設備案認列、藥局規模、輻照產能利用率與長照據點開展。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • Elekta 瑞典上市醫療設備商，承業醫法說資料列示其放射治療相關系統與Elekta Evo等產品，屬放射腫瘤設備上游原廠。
  • IBA（Ion Beam Applications） 比利時上市公司，為質子治療與輻照系統供應商；承業醫年報稱獨家引進比利時IBA輻照系統。
  • Baxter 美國上市醫療設備與醫療產品公司，法說資料列為承業醫代理/合作品牌之一。
  • Leica Microsystems 德國顯微影像設備品牌，隸屬Danaher集團；法說資料列示Leica 3D ARveo 8x Hybrid 3D Surgical Microscope，屬外科設備上游品牌。
  • BVI Medical 眼科手術相關產品品牌，法說資料列為眼科領域代理/合作產品；非台股掛牌。
  • Neutron Therapeutics 美國BNCT設備公司，承業醫法說資料列示nuBeam與新光醫院相關BNCT合作資訊；非台股掛牌。
  • RaySearch Laboratories 瑞典上市醫療軟體公司，RayStation TPS在承業醫法說資料中出現，屬放射治療計畫系統供應商。
Downstream
  • 台灣各大醫療院所 主要客戶群，包含採購、租賃高階醫療設備及委託科室規劃、設備維護、教育訓練與醫管服務；多數醫院非台股掛牌。
  • 新光吳火獅紀念醫院 承業醫法說資料出現SKGH與BNCT相關資訊，屬醫療院所客戶/合作場域；未上市。
  • 怡仁綜合醫院 公開資料顯示與承業醫董事長李典穎相關，且2026Q1財報有杏業對怡仁之應收款；屬醫療院所下游客戶/關係人，未上市。
  • 醫材、食品、半導體、航太與材料業客戶 新和生物輻照服務的潛在/目標客戶群，應用包括醫療滅菌、食品保鮮、材料改性、半導體切換效率提升與航太材料耐受測試；多為未揭露個別客戶。
  • 富康活力藥局消費者與社區藥局通路 B2C藥品、保健食品與健康管理服務終端通路；富康活力醫藥為承業醫子公司，非台股掛牌。

Competitors

  • 佳醫 4104 台股上市公司，業務涵蓋醫療設備、醫療服務與通路/照護相關投資，與承業醫在醫療設備服務及醫療院所合作模式上部分可比。
  • 杏一 4175 台股上櫃連鎖醫療用品與藥局通路公司，主要與承業醫旗下富康藥局在藥局/醫療用品零售通路部分競爭。
  • 盛弘 8403 台股上櫃醫療服務集團，布局醫療院所、健康管理與長照相關服務，與承業醫的大健康、長照與醫療服務布局部分可比。
  • 杏昌 1788 台股上櫃醫療器材代理與通路公司，產品線偏醫材與耗材/血液透析等，與承業醫在醫療器材代理通路屬廣義同業，但高階放射腫瘤設備重疊有限。
  • 國際原廠直營與其他醫療設備代理商 包含Varian/Siemens Healthineers/GE HealthCare/Philips等國際醫療設備商或其台灣代理體系；多非台股掛牌或為海外上市公司，與承業醫在高階醫療設備採購案競爭。
Sources（15）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.