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4754

國碳科 Chemicals As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 國碳科 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 69Quality 85Growth 68Momentum 43Chips 29

Is 國碳科 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~84% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 5.2%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 25th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 45th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -1.2% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 23.1%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.29
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
  • 兆豐-松德 holds 78 lots
  • sellers have 87 lots left, ~53 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +1% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 兆豐-松德 has accumulated 78 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 元大-斗六 peaked at 22 lots, has sold 27%, 16 left, ~53 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.00pp, mid holders +0, retail +0.00pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -7 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
兆豐-松德群益金鼎-民權元大-大灣凱基-新莊中國信託-嘉義元大-成功
Distributing
元大-斗六凱基-台北康和-嘉義美好-楊梅國泰-台中群益金鼎-大甲
Desks
own scale
永豐金-桃園兆豐-新營兆豐-麻豆國泰-桃園
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 兆豐-松德 +78
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 群益金鼎-民權 +76
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-大灣 +62
    sold 2%· still adding
  • 凱基-新莊 +48
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 中國信託-嘉義 +48
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-成功 +41
    sold 7%

Distributing

  • 元大-斗六 16 left
    sold 27%· ~53 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-台北 3 left
    sold 86%· ~2 sessions to clear
  • 康和-嘉義 14 left
    sold 26%· ~28 sessions to clear
  • 美好-楊梅 10 left
    sold 38%· ~17 sessions to clear
  • 國泰-台中 5 left
    sold 62%· ~50 sessions to clear
  • 群益金鼎-大甲 7 left
    sold 46%· ~14 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 永豐金-桃園 -90
    unclassified
  • 兆豐-新營 -80
    unclassified
  • 兆豐-麻豆 -65
    unclassified
  • 國泰-桃園 -62
    unclassified
Still selling 87 lots ~53 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +399 absorbed / -62 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 23.15%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

55 historical occurrences (since 2016-09-29)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 57.6%, Sample 33, Median +0.49%, Excess -0.58%, Beat mkt rate 54.5%；60-day: Win 62.5%, Sample 32, Median +4.41%, Excess -1.79%, Beat mkt rate 50%；120-day: Win 59.4%, Sample 32, Median +4.45%, Excess -6.46%, Beat mkt rate 46.9%

120 days after: historical avg +5.42%

20-day +0.34%
60-day +3.85%
120-day +5.42%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.6%
62.5%
59.4%
Sample
33
32
32
Median
+0.49%
+4.41%
+4.45%
Excess
-0.58%
-1.79%
-6.46%
Beat mkt rate
54.5%
50%
46.9%

Over 32 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.42%, lagged the market by 6.46 pts; win rate 59.4%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 116+25.6% +36.2% 75.9% -1.6%
20-40 191+5.6% -1.2% 37.2% -33.5%
40-60 You are here215+1.3% -0.1% 48.8% -24.2%
60-80 288+8% +2.6% 67% -6.9%
80-100 569+5.9% +4.2% 77.3% -17.6%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 14.74, at the 44.8th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+2.3%
Win rate 38.1% Excess -16.8%
118d
Now
+2.3%
Win rate 50.2% Excess -3.5%
225d
+3.2%
Win rate 47.8% Excess -4.1%
477d
60-day momentum down
+1.2%
Win rate 51.5% Excess -20.9%
169d
+4%
Win rate 65.5% Excess -7.2%
197d
+4.6%
Win rate 69.1% Excess -14.1%
285d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum up”: across 225 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 2.3%, win rate 50.2%, lagged the market by 3.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

14 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.8%, win rate 71.4%, beating the market by +6.45 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

What does 國碳科 do? Company profile

化學工業 櫃買中心上櫃

Overview

4754 對應國碳科技股份有限公司，股票簡稱國碳科，為櫃買中心上櫃普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於 1998/05/11，總部與工廠位於桃園市蘆竹區濱海里中圳街176號，統一編號 16446422；2012/08/28公開發行、2012/11/27興櫃、2016/09/28上櫃。董事長為賀東光，總經理為林東和，發言人為陳佳暉。實收資本額約新台幣302,832,150元，已發行普通股30,283,215股。104人力銀行資料顯示員工約95人；Goodinfo 顯示2025年度全體員工平均年薪約115.3萬元。可讀取的公司股權頁與市場資料顯示，主要股東包含立熠投資、富佳揚投資、啟聖實業等法人，其中公司官網曾揭露基準日113/4/29之前十名股東資料：立熠投資4,341,510股、14.34%；富佳揚投資2,186,512股、7.22%；啟聖實業2,090,731股、6.90%；115/3/28最新版在官網以圖檔呈現，文字擷取無法完整確認所有持股數。

Business

國碳科是防火材料與防火工程廠商，核心產品包括防火塗料、防火填塞材料、阻燃劑、其他防火材料與防火工程承包。主要營業項目涵蓋其他化學材料、工業助劑、其他化學製品、耐火材料、消防安全設備安裝工程、塗料、油漆、染料及顏料製造。2025年度產品組合為防火塗料304,420千元、占48.88%；防火材料145,657千元、占23.39%；防火工程75,171千元、占12.07%；阻燃劑60,834千元、占9.77%；其他36,721千元、占5.89%。2025年營收622,803千元，較2024年631,729千元減少1.41%；稅前淨利109,115千元，較2024年增加9.33%；EPS 2.87元。產品用途方面，阻燃劑可添加於塑膠、橡膠或泡棉以達防火、防煙效果；防火填塞材料用於管線貫穿防火區劃處，維持建築防火完整性；防火塗料用於建築、電線電纜、鋼構與隔熱材料，延緩火焰擴散並保護結構安全。主要應用場域包括電廠、變電站、捷運車站、機場建築、高科技廠房、石化廠、鋼鐵廠、一般大樓、醫院、公共工程及交通設施。商業模式包含自有研發製造、國內工程承包、國內材料銷售及海外經銷/外銷；公司資料與法說資訊指出外銷為重要營收來源，並持續申請 UL、FM、ASTM、BS、GB 等市場認證。2023年公司取得台積電防火延燒材料供應商資格，並積極拓展民間企業與電子廠業務。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望以穩健成長、海外認證與電子廠/公共工程拓展為主。已確認的2025結果為營收略降1.41%、但稅前淨利成長9.33%，毛利與費用控管改善；2026年前5月累計營收約285,499千元、年減4.7%，顯示短期接單與出貨仍有波動。公司115年度營業計畫指出，因應國際戰爭、景氣衰退、美國關稅政策與原料成本等不確定性，策略採先求穩再求成長；同時將穩固既有業績、持續開發新市場與新客群，極力擴展公共工程與電子廠業務。成長動能包括：一、台灣與海外火災事件提高法規與防火材料需求，政府強化防火法規與後市場管理有利合規產品；二、台積電與高科技廠房擴建帶動防火延燒、防火填塞與電纜/鋼構防火塗料需求；三、公司持續向 UL 申請新防火填塞材料及防火延燒系統測試與認證，水性鋼結構防火塗料亦申請 ASTM E119 或 UL 測試，並擴大 BS476、GB14907 應用項目及減薄測試，以提升產品競爭力；四、海外市場以經銷商與認證導入模式拓展，北美、歐洲、中東、印度、越南、北非、紐澳等地若認證與通路成熟，可成為中期成長來源；五、非鹵素、水性、低煙毒、環保節能材料符合建材與 ESG 趨勢。主要風險包括：公共工程需求遞延或預算縮減、台灣房市與建築景氣下行、海外認證時程不確定、原物料價格波動、匯率與關稅、國際品牌競爭、單一大型電子客戶或重大工程占比提高造成營收波動。2027至2028的具體財務數字未見公司正式財測，相關成長判斷屬根據公司營業計畫、法規趨勢與產業需求之推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 聚磷酸銨(APP)供應商 國碳科防火材料重要原料之一；公開資料未確認特定供應商名稱，可能包含國內外化工原料商。
  • 樹脂供應商 防火塗料與填塞材料配方原料；公開資料未確認特定供應商名稱。
  • 二氧化鈦(TiO2)供應商 防火塗料常用原料；公開資料未確認特定供應商名稱。
  • 異戊四醇(PENTA)供應商 膨脹型防火塗料與阻燃系統相關原料；公開資料未確認特定供應商名稱。
  • 三聚氰胺供應商 阻燃與防火材料配方原料；公開資料未確認特定供應商名稱。
Downstream
  • 台積電 2330 2023年取得台積電防火延燒材料供應商資格；屬高科技廠房防火材料與工程需求。
  • 台灣電力公司 未上市國營事業；國碳科防火工程主要客戶場域包含各發電廠與變電所。
  • 台灣高速鐵路 2633 交通設施防火工程應用場域之一；公開資料列高鐵為下游交通設施客戶/場域。
  • 臺北大眾捷運股份有限公司 未上市公司；捷運車站及交通設施為防火工程應用場域。
  • 高雄捷運股份有限公司 未上市公司；捷運車站及交通設施為防火工程應用場域。
  • 建築業、營造業、機電系統業客戶 防火填塞、防火塗料與防火工程的主要合作對象；包含公共工程、一般大樓、醫院、石化廠、鋼鐵廠及高科技廠辦。
  • 海外經銷商與工程通路 非單一掛牌公司；國碳科以外銷與經銷商模式拓展北美、歐洲、中東、印度、越南、北非、紐澳等市場。

Competitors

  • 3M 美國上市跨國公司；防火工程、防火填塞材料與防火阻隔產品國際競爭者。
  • Hilti 喜利得，非台股掛牌；防火工程與防火填塞系統國際競爭者。
  • META CAULK 防火填塞材料品牌，非台股掛牌；公開資料列為防火填塞材料競爭者。
  • FLAME SEAL 防火塗料品牌，非台股掛牌；公開資料列為防火塗料競爭者。
  • NO-BURN Inc. 防火塗料與阻燃產品廠商，非台股掛牌；公開資料列為防火塗料競爭者。
Sources（16）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.