252-day price high (breakout)
ActiveAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
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4807
日成-KY Trading & Retail As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close
steady quality, fair valuation.
2 active signals
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Is 日成-KY a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 73th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 6.8%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 61th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 89th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 2.8% of volume (net buy).
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Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 48.8%, above the 20% growth threshold.
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Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.
Chip flow
Bullish +0.72
BearishNeutralBullish
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +123% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 元大-花蓮 has accumulated 412 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 國泰-敦南 peaked at 447 lots, has sold 27%, 327 left, ~93 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +3.10pp, mid holders +6, retail +0.02pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -70 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
元大-花蓮元大證券康和華南永昌-中正兆豐-竹北凱基-城中
Distributing
國泰-敦南凱基-站前凱基-永和兆豐-南門華南永昌-板橋凱基-台北
Desks
own scale
華南永昌-竹北永豐金證券台新新光
Branch details Unit: lots
Accumulating
- 元大-花蓮 +412
- 元大證券 +231
- 康和 +182
- 華南永昌-中正 +177
- 兆豐-竹北 +175
- 凱基-城中 +144
Distributing
- 國泰-敦南 327 left
- 凱基-站前 147 left
- 凱基-永和 103 left
- 兆豐-南門 46 left
- 華南永昌-板橋 113 left
- 凱基-台北 82 left
Desks
- 華南永昌-竹北 -508
- 永豐金證券 -416
- 台新 -383
- 新光 -289
Still selling 1,000 lots ~93 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,819 absorbed / -402 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -68 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Signals active now
These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
Active · now 48.79%Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 59.5%, Sample 37, Median +1.49%, Excess +5.52%, Beat mkt rate 54.1%；60-day: Win 51.4%, Sample 35, Median +1.1%, Excess +0.02%, Beat mkt rate 45.7%；120-day: Win 54.3%, Sample 35, Median +1.66%, Excess -4.36%, Beat mkt rate 40%
120 days after: historical avg +3.58%
20-day +7.31%
60-day +3.67%
120-day +3.58%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
59.5%
51.4%
54.3%
Sample
37
35
35
Median
+1.49%
+1.1%
+1.66%
Excess
+5.52%
+0.02%
-4.36%
Beat mkt rate
54.1%
45.7%
40%
Over 35 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 3.58%, lagged the market by 4.36 pts; win rate 54.3%.
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
0-20 -16.3%
20-40 -5.9%
40-60 -11.6%
60-80 Insufficient data
80-100 -15.5% Now
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 104 | -16.3% | -17% | 0% | -101% |
| 20-40 | 101 | -5.9% | -16.8% | 10.9% | -22.8% |
| 40-60 | 66 | -11.6% | -17.1% | 21.2% | -46.8% |
| 60-80 | 0 | Insufficient data | |||
| 80-100 You are here | 32 | -15.5% | -16.7% | 0% | -5.9% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 29.2, at the 89.2th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-15.4%
87d
-5.1%
54d
Now
+8.2%
44d
60-day momentum down
-6.4%
179d
-1.8%
32d
Insufficient data
(15d)
(15d)
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 44 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 8.2%, win rate 65.9%, lagged the market by 45.2%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Does this signal hold up across the market
Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.
Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
14 times historically; 60-day forward avg -2.64%, win rate 15.4%, beating the market by -12.12 pts on average.
What does 日成-KY do? Company profile
貿易百貨；珠寶首飾設計、製造及銷售 台灣證券交易所上市
Overview
4807 對應日成-KY，為台灣證券交易所上市之外國企業第一上市普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。日成控股股份有限公司於 2014 年 10 月 6 日在英屬開曼群島設立，係為申請來台上市及集團重組而成立；其主要營運子公司 Regal Jewelry Manufacture Co., Ltd. 源自 1991 年在泰國設立之珠寶製造業務。公司股票於 2017 年 6 月 26 日在台灣證券交易所掛牌上市，產業類別為貿易百貨。公司網站與公開資料顯示董事長為 Phacharapon Phaiboonsuntorn（帕查拉蓬拍奔順通），總經理為林如茵，發言人為林如茵，代理發言人為李文雄，台灣總機為 (02)2501-1225。公司地址公開資料列為 The Grand Pavilion Commercial Centre, Oleander Way, 802 West；主要營運與生產據點位於泰國。實收資本額資料因來源時間不同而有差異：Yahoo 股市 2025 年資料列股本 383,960,320 元、已發行普通股 38,396,032 股；Win 投資及 nStock 2026 年資料列實收資本額約 4.90 億元、已發行普通股約 48,996,032 股，推測反映後續增資，需以公開資訊觀測站最新股本為準。主要股東方面，Goodinfo 2026 年股東結構資料顯示僑外投資持股約 32,606 張、占約 66.5%，本國個人約 15,946 張、占約 32.5%，本國金融機構約 225 張、占約 0.46%，本國法人約 219 張、占約 0.45%；Yahoo 股市另列董監持股比例約 43%。員工規模未在可查官方摘要中取得精確數字，第三方法說摘要提及 2026 年員工數可能由約 2,800 人增加至 3,000 人以上，此數字未能以公司正式 PDF 逐頁覆核，僅供低確定性參考。
Business
公司為珠寶 ODM/OEM 製造商，核心業務為珠寶首飾設計、製造、電鍍加工及銷售。公司具實質營運功能之子公司 Regal Jewelry Manufacture Co., Ltd. 主要營業項目為珠寶首飾之設計、製造及銷售；產品涵蓋項鍊、吊墜、戒指、耳環、胸針、手環、手鍊、串珠、袖扣等，材質包括黃銅、合金、925 純銀、9K 至 24K 金、寶石等。MoneyDJ 資料指出 2024 年產品營收比重約為珠寶首飾設計、製造及銷售 90%，珠寶電鍍加工 10%；StockFeel 類似資料列珠寶首飾約 89.8%、珠寶電鍍加工約 10.2%。公司定位為泰國前三大珠寶 ODM/OEM 廠之一，也是泰國少數同時具有大規模產能及電鍍產線的 ODM 代工廠，商業模式以承接國際品牌、區域珠寶品牌、電視購物與型錄商之少量多樣、客製化、中高階珠寶訂單為主，並提供設計開發、製造、電鍍及銷售服務。早期媒體與公開說明書相關報導指出，公司曾為 Pandora 及 Swarovski 等國際品牌之主要代工廠，銷售區域遍及歐美亞三大洲，營收曾有近六成來自泰國內銷；但客戶集中度與各客戶最新占比未取得公司近期正式揭露。2024 年全年合併營收據 Yahoo 股市新聞為 1,779,357 千元、年增 53.9%；2025 年 1 至 3 月累計營收 525,715 千元、年增 80.68%；2026 年 5 月單月營收 214,673 千元、年增 48.79%，顯示 2024 至 2026 年上半年營收明顯回升。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025 至 2028 年展望可分為成長動能、產品組合、區域拓展與風險。成長動能方面，2024 年營收年增 53.9%，2025 年第 1 季累計營收年增 80.68%，2026 年前 5 月累計營收第三方資料列約 10.03 億元、年增約 27.32%，顯示疫情後珠寶消費復甦、品牌客戶補庫存及公司接單回升已反映在營收。產品方面，2025 年法說摘要提到公司關注 K 金產品新增客戶量產、銀與鉑金產品、高品質銀飾、培育鑽石與新材質等方向；若高附加價值成品比重提高，毛利率有機會改善，但若低毛利銀片或原料銷售占比提高，毛利率可能受壓。市場方面，公司近年開發澳洲客戶、全球性客戶，並規劃透過義大利 Vicenza 珠寶展等活動拓展歐洲新客戶；2026 年法說摘要亦指公司強調新系列產品、既有客戶深化與新客戶開發。2027 至 2028 年並無可查公司量化財測，本研究僅能推估：若品牌珠寶、輕奢珠寶、客製化與培育鑽石趨勢延續，公司可受惠於中高階 ODM/OEM 訂單與產能利用率提升；若國際品牌自行擴產、轉單、消費景氣轉弱或金銀寶石價格高波動，則會壓抑訂單、毛利與營運資金。主要風險包括：一、客戶集中與國際品牌訂單波動；二、金、銀、寶石等原料價格及匯率波動；三、泰國製造出口可能面臨美國或其他市場關稅與貿易政策變動，2025 年第三方法說摘要曾提及美國可能對泰國產品課徵高關稅之不確定性；四、公司治理與資訊揭露風險，台灣證券交易所曾於 2026 年 3 月 11 日公告日成-KY違反重大訊息規定並處違約金；五、珠寶消費具景氣循環及時尚變化風險。
Supply Chain
Upstream
- 銀、金、銅、合金、寶石等原料供應商 公司主要原料包括銀、銅、合金、金、寶石等；未查得公司最新正式揭露之具名供應商，故以原料類別表示，上游多屬貴金屬、合金、寶石及相關加工材料供應鏈。
- 珠寶製造設備與電鍍材料供應商 公司具電鍍加工與大規模製造能力，需使用珠寶設計、金工、鑄造、3D 列印、拋光及電鍍等設備與耗材；未查得具名上市櫃供應商。
Downstream
- Pandora A/S 丹麥珠寶品牌，非台股掛牌；早期媒體與公開說明書相關報導指出日成-KY曾為 Pandora 產品代工，並曾為主要客戶之一，最新客戶占比未取得正式揭露。
- Swarovski 奧地利水晶與珠寶品牌，未上市；早期媒體報導列為日成-KY主要代工客戶之一，最新合作與占比未能確認。
- 國際品牌珠寶客戶、區域珠寶品牌商、電視購物與型錄商 公司銷售區域遍及歐美亞三大洲，主要承接國際品牌、區域品牌及通路商之珠寶 ODM/OEM 設計製造訂單；具名客戶與最新占比多未公開。
Competitors
- Pandora A/S 丹麥上市珠寶品牌，非台股掛牌；同時可能是品牌客戶與終端市場競爭者，並在泰國自有製造基地。
- Swarovski 奧地利未上市水晶與珠寶品牌，非台股掛牌；在品牌珠寶及飾品市場與客戶端形成競合關係。
- 其他泰國及亞洲珠寶 ODM/OEM 製造商 未查得同業具名台股上市櫃純珠寶 ODM/OEM 公司；主要競爭來自泰國本地及亞洲其他珠寶代工廠。
- 科定 6655 台股上市櫃公司；部分第三方資料將其列為其他製造類股比較對象，但產品領域與日成-KY珠寶代工並不直接相同，僅作資本市場同類製造業參考。
- 三能-KY 6671 台股上市櫃公司；第三方資料列為其他製造類比較對象，非珠寶代工直接同業，競爭關係低。
Sources（18）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.