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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 5015 華祺. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=5015
5015
quality needs a look, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 華祺 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 24th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.2%.
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Valuation is high.PE is in the 97th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 99th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 9.3% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -16% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 凱基-長庚 has accumulated 344 lots since the start (sold 1%), holding.
- Main distributor 統一-高雄 peaked at 30 lots, has sold 83%, 5 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.78pp, mid holders +2, retail -2.28pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -44 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 凱基-長庚 +344
- 永豐金-台南 +229
- 台新-台北 +117
- 凱基-新莊 +107
- 凱基-頭份 +71
- 統一-松江 +60
Distributing
- 統一-高雄 5 left
- 合庫-台南 18 left
- 華南永昌-高雄 2 left
- 永豐金-大園 14 left
- 永豐金-古亭 11 left
- 凱基-三重 10 left
Desks
- 美好-富順 -80
- 統一-城中 -64
- 大昌-新店 -62
- 元富-城東 -58
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 782 | +14.3% | +4.7% | 58.2% | -2.3% |
| 20-40 | 704 | +23.2% | +26.7% | 76.7% | +11.2% |
| 40-60 | 492 | +33.6% | +37.4% | 77.4% | +27.5% |
| 60-80 | 628 | +18.2% | +13.6% | 65.8% | -8.5% |
| 80-100 You are here | 247 | -18.5% | -20% | 1.2% | -34.9% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 375.0, at the 98.9th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 468 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 3%, win rate 28.6%, lagged the market by 18.5%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
36 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.64%, win rate 61.1%, beating the market by +2.6 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
60 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.25%, win rate 63%, beating the market by +3.48 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
34 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.53%, win rate 56.2%, beating the market by -4.21 pts on average.
What does 華祺 do? Company profile
Overview
華祺工業股份有限公司成立於1984年5月22日，英文名稱 RODEX FASTENERS CORP.，總部及工廠位於桃園市中壢區松江北路29號；股票代號5015，2000年12月15日上櫃，櫃買中心產業代號為鋼鐵工業。董事長為葉明彥，總經理及發言人為張順立。櫃買中心OpenAPI截至2026-06-17資料顯示，實收資本額為新台幣606,391,890元，已發行普通股60,639,189股，每股面額10元，無私募股與特別股；統一編號12494555，股務代理為凱基證券。公司官網profile頁列示員工人數約200人、廠房面積14,430平方公尺；104人力銀行資料列示員工數180人，兩者時間與口徑可能不同。Yahoo股市2026/02/11資料列示董監持股比例15.37%。櫃買中心10%以上大股東OpenAPI未查得5015紀錄，因此未能由該來源確認持股逾10%大股東名單。
Business
華祺是專業不鏽鋼線材與不鏽鋼螺絲製造商，核心模式是以盤元為主要原料，透過伸線、熱處理、打頭、輾牙、成型、篩選等一貫化生產，供應不鏽鋼小螺絲、特殊扣件及線材。主要產品包括不鏽鋼線材、被覆線、軟線、半軟硬線、硬線、自攻螺絲、木螺絲、機械螺絲、六角螺絲、內六角螺絲、鑽尾螺絲、止付螺絲、割尾螺絲、三角牙螺絲、組合螺絲、安全螺絲、自動生產線螺絲、電子螺絲、螺帽等，規格可依ANSI、DIN、ISO、JIS及客製規格生產。MoneyDJ資料顯示2024年產品營收比重為不鏽鋼螺絲76%、不鏽鋼線材24%；區域銷售比重為台灣17%、亞洲13%、美洲35%、歐洲33%，顯示外銷導向且美洲、歐洲為主要市場。公司官網列示月產能為不鏽鋼線材約1,000公噸，其中750至800公噸供螺絲生產、200至250公噸對外銷售；公司自述年產出超過12,000公噸。終端應用涵蓋汽車工業用螺絲、精密不鏽鋼特殊工業、科技電子產品用螺絲、工業零配件及自動化組裝線。公司商業模式偏訂單生產、少量多樣與客製規格，競爭重點在不鏽鋼小螺絲製程、品質控管、線材與成品一貫化、交期及外銷通路。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025至2028年展望偏審慎。成長動能方面，華祺的不鏽鋼小螺絲與特殊扣件可受惠於全球工業維修、汽車零組件、電子產品、自動化組裝線及高品質不鏽鋼扣件需求；公司一貫化製程與ISO 9001品質系統有利於承接少量多樣、客製化與較高附加價值訂單。若美洲與歐洲庫存循環正常化、美元需求回穩，2027至2028年外銷訂單有機會改善。產能與產品方面，目前公開資料未查得重大新廠或大規模擴產公告；既有中壢廠與泰國DURA、印尼PT.SHYE CHANG等海外投資據點，可作為分散生產與供應鏈彈性的基礎，但具體產能貢獻需以公司後續公告確認。產業趨勢方面，台灣扣件業正面臨從低價量產轉向高品質、短交期、客製化、低碳與供應鏈信任的競爭；歐盟CBAM、碳盤查、自動化製程與品質追溯會逐步提高進入門檻，對具規模與品管能力的廠商相對有利。主要風險包括：美國232鋼鋁及衍生品關稅、匯率升值造成外銷報價與匯損壓力、歐美景氣與製造業PMI波動、台灣扣件對美國與歐洲市場依賴度高、盤元與鎳/不鏽鋼原料價格波動、中國及東南亞低成本競爭、客戶去庫存，以及CBAM與ESG合規成本上升。櫃買中心月營收OpenAPI顯示，2026年5月單月營收109,137千元、年減25.61%，2026年1至5月累計營收489,972千元、年減28.56%，顯示截至2026年中需求仍承壓；因此2026年前後應以保守復甦與毛利防守為基本情境。
Supply Chain
- 華新麗華股份有限公司 1605 國內不鏽鋼盤元/線材供應商之一；MoneyDJ列為華祺主要原料盤元國內來源。
- 燁興企業股份有限公司 2007 國內盤元供應商之一；MoneyDJ列為華祺主要原料盤元國內來源。
- 日本製鐵（Nippon Steel） 日本上市鋼鐵公司；MoneyDJ列為華祺國外盤元來源之一。
- POSCO Holdings / 浦項鋼鐵 韓國上市鋼鐵集團；MoneyDJ列為華祺國外盤元來源之一。
- Ugitech / 法國不鏽鋼線材供應商 非台股掛牌；MoneyDJ以『法國聯頤』列為國外盤元來源，推定為歐洲不鏽鋼長材供應商，名稱需進一步確認。
- 美洲工業與扣件通路客戶群 非單一掛牌公司；MoneyDJ列示2024年美洲銷售比重35%，具體客戶未公開揭露。
- 歐洲工業與扣件通路客戶群 非單一掛牌公司；MoneyDJ列示2024年歐洲銷售比重33%，具體客戶未公開揭露。
- 汽車、電子、自動化組裝與工業零配件客戶 終端應用客群；公司營業範圍包括汽車工業用螺絲、科技電子產品用螺絲、精密不鏽鋼特殊工業及自動生產線螺絲，未揭露主要客戶名單。
- 泰國DURA廠 華祺海外投資/生產據點之一，非台股掛牌；MoneyDJ列為海外生產基地。
- 印尼PT.SHYE CHANG廠 華祺海外投資/生產據點之一，非台股掛牌；MoneyDJ列為海外生產基地。
Competitors
- 明徽企業 MoneyDJ列為華祺產品相近的主要競爭對手；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
- 世豐螺絲股份有限公司 2065 台股上櫃螺絲扣件廠，與華祺在外銷扣件市場有競爭關係，但產品組合與市場定位不同。
- 世鎧精密股份有限公司 2063 台股上櫃扣件/螺絲螺帽相關廠商，屬台灣扣件供應鏈同業。
- 春雨工廠股份有限公司 2012 台股上市螺絲、線材、鋼鐵加工廠，規模與產品線較廣，部分扣件與線材市場重疊。
- 三星科技股份有限公司 5007 台股上櫃鋼鐵與螺帽/扣件相關廠商，屬扣件產業同業。
- 大成鋼隆美家居室內裝修設計股份有限公司／大成鋼集團相關扣件業務 2027 台股上市不鏽鋼與金屬材料通路集團；StatementDog產業代表公司頁將大成鋼列於螺絲螺帽代表公司，與華祺在金屬扣件/材料通路有間接競爭或通路替代關係。
Sources（20）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.