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5211

蒙恬 Information Services As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 蒙恬 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 30Quality 12Growth 76Momentum 13Chips 36

Is 蒙恬 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 12th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -1.7%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 77th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 69th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -0.4% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 33.2%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.18
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 兆豐-鹿港 holds 225 lots
  • sellers have 194 lots left, ~80 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -29% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 兆豐-鹿港 has accumulated 225 lots since the start (sold 1%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 康和-永和 peaked at 765 lots, has sold 85%, 118 left, ~6 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +2.55pp, mid holders -3, retail +8.60pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -234 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
兆豐-鹿港富邦-桃園新光-台中國泰-台中國泰-高雄玉山證券
Distributing
康和-永和國泰-館前台新-高雄日茂-南投富邦-新店永豐金-新竹
Desks
own scale
永豐金-南投土銀-彰化國泰-敦南凱基-台北
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 兆豐-鹿港 +225
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 富邦-桃園 +179
    sold 1%
  • 新光-台中 +98
    sold 2%
  • 國泰-台中 +96
    sold 5%
  • 國泰-高雄 +91
    sold 2%· still adding
  • 玉山證券 +89
    sold 1%

Distributing

  • 康和-永和 118 left
    sold 85%· ~6 sessions to clear
  • 國泰-館前 50 left
    sold 29%· paused recently
  • 台新-高雄 16 left
    sold 75%· paused recently
  • 日茂-南投 27 left
    sold 29%· paused recently
  • 富邦-新店 20 left
    sold 31%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-新竹 6 left
    sold 71%· ~8 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 永豐金-南投 -2,672
    unclassified
  • 土銀-彰化 -174
    unclassified
  • 國泰-敦南 -134
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 凱基-台北 -94
    day-trade · selling pressure
Still selling 194 lots ~80 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +222 absorbed / -259 sold sellers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -6 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 33.18%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

38 historical occurrences (since 2007-05-10)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 51.4%, Sample 37, Median +0.36%, Excess +1.83%, Beat mkt rate 35.1%；60-day: Win 54.3%, Sample 35, Median +2.53%, Excess -3.57%, Beat mkt rate 28.6%；120-day: Win 62.5%, Sample 32, Median +5.45%, Excess -11.36%, Beat mkt rate 25%

120 days after: historical avg +7.55%

20-day +5.41%
60-day +5.37%
120-day +7.55%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
51.4%
54.3%
62.5%
Sample
37
35
32
Median
+0.36%
+2.53%
+5.45%
Excess
+1.83%
-3.57%
-11.36%
Beat mkt rate
35.1%
28.6%
25%

Over 32 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 7.55%, lagged the market by 11.36 pts; win rate 62.5%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 261+16.4% +4.7% 66.3% +13.7%
20-40 192+26.9% +25.7% 96.9% -34.5%
40-60 295+14.6% +8.6% 92.2% -4.9%
60-80 You are here419+1.7% -1.1% 46.1% -9.7%
80-100 815-12.1% -13.8% 19.4% -18.1%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 30.32, at the 68.7th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-6.1%
Win rate 22.3% Excess -7.5%
247d
+7.3%
Win rate 56.1% Excess -13.1%
171d
Now
-7.1%
Win rate 25.5% Excess -10.9%
525d
60-day momentum down
+15.1%
Win rate 65.6% Excess +7%
279d
+7.1%
Win rate 56.5% Excess -8.5%
278d
+5.1%
Win rate 56.9% Excess +1.1%
601d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 525 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 7.1%, win rate 25.5%, lagged the market by 10.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

21 times historically; 60-day forward avg -5.2%, win rate 28.6%, beating the market by -9.69 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

16 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.99%, win rate 37.5%, beating the market by -4.3 pts on average.

What does 蒙恬 do? Company profile

資訊服務業；智慧型人機介面、辨識技術、SaaS與AI應用軟體 櫃買中心上櫃

Overview

5211 對應證券為蒙恬科技，為台灣櫃買中心上櫃普通股。公司成立於1991年9月24日，2002年12月23日上櫃，總部位於新竹市光復路二段二巷47號7樓。公司定位為智慧型人機介面整合與核心技術研發公司，早期聚焦手寫辨識、OCR光學辨識、語音辨識、TTS等技術，近年轉向雲端服務、3D/VR房產資料服務、電子簽章與AI產品。董事長為蔡義泰，總經理為洪成安，財務長暨發言人為詹榮泉。實收資本額約新台幣3.20億元，已發行普通股約3,202.47萬股；Winvest於2026/06/17揭露市值約新台幣6.08億元。公司網站與投資人頁面揭露資本額三億餘元、董事長蔡義泰與營業項目為智慧型人機介面系統產品設計開發及核心技術授權。員工規模公開資料有限，104人力銀行頁面曾揭露約70人，未以最新年報交叉確認。主要股東方面，公開資料顯示雨杰投資股份有限公司為持股逾10%大股東，2026年5月董監持股資料顯示雨杰投資約持有4,010千股、約12.52%；酌見投資有限公司約2,354千股、約7.35%，但是否屬前十大股東須以最新年報為準。董事會包含雨杰投資代表人蔡義泰、蔡旻杰、陳建誠，以及酌見投資代表人洪成安等；蔡旻杰於2024年由雨杰投資改派為董事代表，曾負責美國市場與Asteroom業務。

Business

蒙恬的商業模式由傳統套裝軟硬體與核心辨識技術授權，逐步轉向SaaS訂閱、B2B服務、AI軟硬體整合與平台型服務。主要產品與服務包括：一、Asteroom蒙恬實境王，提供3D虛擬導覽、房屋鑑價與檢驗資料收集平台，服務對象包含美國房貸機構、鑑價管理公司、銀行、放貸公司、物業管理公司與房產交易平台；公開法說摘要列示其為房利美Fannie Mae、房地美Freddie Mac認證的遠距鑑價服務商，服務覆蓋美國約92%地區，並運用超過35,000名DIY方案使用者或資料收集人員。二、AI-powered產品，包含蒙恬AI聽寫王、AI掃譯筆、規劃上市的AI錄音王，核心是語音辨識、OCR、手寫辨識、翻譯、摘要、RAG個人知識庫與生成式AI加值。三、BreezySign好好簽，定位為線上簽名與電子簽核平台，提供合約電子簽章、企業內部簽核、用印流程、公開表單、LINE傳簽、客製API與系統整合，並通過ISO 27001及數位發展部電子簽章解決方案服務能量登錄，法說摘要提及與中華電信合作雲端憑證。四、WorldCard Cloud、WorldCard Team與名片辨識，協助名片數位化、聯絡人管理與企業名片資料庫。五、核心技術授權與SDK，包含OCR、手寫辨識、名片辨識、地址電話辨識、證件或診斷書辨識等。公司營收結構未在可公開抓取資料中完整揭露百分比；2025年全年營收約新台幣2.19億元，2026年1至5月累計營收約新台幣1.03億元、年增約35.28%，顯示新業務與AI/SaaS產品可能推升成長，但各產品別占比需以公司法說簡報或年報原始表格確認。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望重點在三條轉型軸線：第一，Asteroom由房仲3D導覽工具升級為美國房屋鑑價、檢驗與資料收集平台，若美國房貸鑑價現代化、遠距鑑價與物業管理數位化持續推進，蒙恬有機會透過與Fannie Mae、Freddie Mac、AMCs、銀行、放貸公司與物業管理公司整合，提高訂單黏著度與服務規模。第二，AI產品把公司既有OCR、語音、手寫辨識技術結合生成式AI，AI掃譯筆、AI聽寫王、AI錄音王與RAG知識庫可切入教育、商務會議、個人知識管理與跨語言協作場景；若硬體銷售能有效轉化為雲端訂閱與AI服務付費，毛利與經常性收入結構可能改善。第三，BreezySign好好簽受惠台灣電子簽章法規與企業無紙化、簽核流程數位轉型需求，並可透過API與BPM、CMS、雲端憑證合作夥伴擴大企業導入。主要風險包括：公司規模小、近年仍見虧損，2025全年EPS約-0.77元、2026年第1季EPS約-0.18元，產品研發與行銷投入可能壓抑獲利；Asteroom高度依賴美國房地產、房貸鑑價制度與大型機構合作進度，若美國房市交易量低迷或認證/平台規則改變，成長可能延後；AI產品競爭來自大型雲端、手機、錄音筆、翻譯筆與軟體服務商，蒙恬需證明差異化與付費率；電子簽章市場面對DocuSign、Adobe、台灣本土簽核與文件管理系統競爭；生成式AI使用也帶來雲端成本、資料安全、隱私與模型依賴風險。2025至2028可觀察指標包括月營收是否維持雙位數成長、Asteroom訂單與平台整合進度、BreezySign企業客戶與API導入、AI硬體轉訂閱率、毛利率與營業利益率是否改善。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • Amazon Web Services / Google Cloud / Microsoft Azure等雲端與AI基礎設施供應商 推估為SaaS、AI與全球服務可能使用的雲端基礎設施；供應商名稱未由蒙恬逐一揭露，AWS、Google、Microsoft皆非台股掛牌。
  • AI模型、OCR/語音資料與軟硬體模組供應鏈 AI聽寫、掃譯筆、錄音王、OCR與語音服務需要模型、資料、晶片、掃描/錄音/攝影硬體與代工供應；公司未公開主要供應商，故不列具體公司。
  • 中華電信股份有限公司 2412 法說摘要提及BreezySign好好簽與中華電信合作推廣雲端憑證；中華電信在此較像憑證/信任服務合作夥伴，而非傳統原料供應商。
Downstream
  • Fannie Mae（房利美） 美國政府支持企業，非台股掛牌；法說摘要列為Asteroom遠距鑑價/房屋資料服務相關認證與服務對象。
  • Freddie Mac（房地美） 美國政府支持企業，非台股掛牌；公開資料稱Asteroom為房地美認證遠距鑑價服務商。
  • Offerpad 美國上市或美國市場房地產科技公司；法說摘要列為Asteroom主要客戶之一。
  • Opteon 非台股掛牌；鑑價管理與房產服務公司，法說摘要列為Asteroom主要客戶之一。
  • Solidifi 非台股掛牌；房地產鑑價、產權或抵押貸款相關服務公司，法說摘要列為Asteroom主要客戶之一。
  • HomeRiver Group 非台股掛牌；物業管理公司，法說摘要列為Asteroom主要客戶之一。
  • 企業客戶、政府/教育機構、BPM/CMS系統整合商與電商通路 BreezySign、WorldCard、AI掃譯筆與AI聽寫王的下游客群；法說摘要提及Amazon、Shopify、大型電商、Meta/Google/Amazon/TikTok行銷通路與API整合，但未揭露具體台股掛牌客戶。

Competitors

  • 精誠資訊股份有限公司 6214 台股上市櫃資訊服務與企業軟體整合同業；規模與服務範圍遠大於蒙恬，與蒙恬在企業數位化、雲端與軟體服務市場部分重疊。
  • 凌群電腦股份有限公司 2453 台股上市資訊服務與系統整合同業；在政府與企業資訊系統、雲端服務等市場與蒙恬企業解決方案有部分競爭。
  • 凌網科技股份有限公司 5212 台股上櫃資訊服務商；提供電子化政府、企業軟體與雲端服務，與蒙恬在資訊服務與SaaS市場部分重疊。
  • 資通電腦股份有限公司 2471 台股上市企業軟體與系統整合公司；與蒙恬在企業流程數位化、軟體服務與系統整合市場部分重疊。
  • DocuSign, Inc. 美國上市電子簽章與合約管理平台，非台股掛牌；為BreezySign在國際電子簽章市場的重要比較對象。
  • Adobe Inc. 美國上市軟體公司，非台股掛牌；Adobe Acrobat Sign與PDF工作流程服務是電子簽章與文件管理競爭者。
  • Matterport / CoStar Group相關3D房產平台 美國市場3D空間資料與房產展示/資料平台競爭者，非台股掛牌；與Asteroom在3D導覽與房產資料服務市場重疊。
  • 凱鈿行動科技股份有限公司 台灣未上市軟體公司；DottedSign與文件生產力服務與BreezySign在電子簽章市場競爭。
Sources（15）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.