Ask AI to review this stock
Copy the prompt to get recent events, historical reactions, and a short research brief.
Tell your AI:
Help me set up FinLab and analyze 5245 智晶. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=5245
5245
quality needs a look, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 智晶 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
-
Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 9th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -5.6%.
-
Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 79th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 85th percentile.
-
Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 1.7% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -4% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 台新-緯城 has accumulated 191 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 富邦-三重 peaked at 64 lots, has sold 52%, 31 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.14pp, mid holders +0, retail +0.26pp — little change.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -143 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 台新-緯城 +191
- 第一金 +121
- 統一-基隆 +105
- 元大-大甲 +98
- 國泰-敦南 +90
- 國票-敦北法人 +78
Distributing
- 富邦-三重 31 left
- 元大-龍潭 12 left
- 美林 18 left
- 元大-路竹 19 left
- 新光 20 left
- 統一-屏東 20 left
Desks
- 元大-基隆孝二 -164
- 第一金-華江 -126
- 凱基-高美館 -122
- 凱基-台北 -116
Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 415 | -12.3% | -27.7% | 20.7% | -22.1% |
| 20-40 | 152 | -1.5% | -20.5% | 42.1% | +5.5% |
| 40-60 | 92 | +21.8% | +36.1% | 71.7% | +3.4% |
| 60-80 | 197 | +56.3% | +39.9% | 90.4% | +35% |
| 80-100 You are here | 220 | +17.1% | +8.1% | 62.3% | -21.4% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 36.31, at the 85.2th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 157 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 3.3%, win rate 40.1%, lagged the market by 22.3%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
39 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.24%, win rate 48.1%, beating the market by +8.6 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
43 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.87%, win rate 40.5%, beating the market by -4.02 pts on average.
What does 智晶 do? Company profile
Overview
5245 對應證券為智晶光電股份有限公司，股票簡稱智晶，為櫃買中心上櫃普通股，產業類別為上櫃光電業。公司成立於2005年11月3日，總部與主要生產基地位於新竹科學園區竹南基地，地址為苗栗縣竹南鎮科北二路8號。董事長為王鴻鈞，總經理與發言人為葉文欽；官方揭露主要經營業務為被動式有機發光顯示器（PMOLED）。公司於2015年5月25日上櫃。官方公司基本資料揭露實收資本額為新台幣449,900,000元；部分股市資料截至2026年前後顯示資本額約新台幣4.51億元、已發行股數約4,512.71萬股，可能反映後續股本變動。104人力銀行揭露員工人數約300人，屬第三方徵才資料。主要股東方面，公開來源可查到前十大持股合計約17.91%，但未能在本次搜尋中完整確認各主要股東名單與持股比例，因此不列具名大股東。
Business
智晶為中小尺寸PMOLED顯示模組廠，產品涵蓋6吋以下OLED模組、OLED標準品、TFT標準品與客製化顯示模組；公司定位為研發、設計、製造及行銷有機電激發光顯示器。PMOLED相較AMOLED結構較簡單、材料成本與開模成本較低，適合少量多樣與客製化市場；在車用、工業、醫療、小尺寸消費性產品、穿戴裝置與網通產品中，低耗電、高穩定性與客製化成本低是主要賣點。MoneyDJ資料指出，2023年產品營收比重為OLED 1.5吋以上約58%、OLED 1.5吋以下約40%；StockFeel第三方資料則揭露較近期營收結構為OLED 1.5吋以上約49.3%、OLED 1.5吋以下約41.6%、其他營運事業占其餘比重，兩者期間與分類口徑不同。終端應用包含智慧手錶與手環、車用儀表、兒童智慧手錶、電子煙、工控特殊應用、醫療、博弈機台、網通產品與小尺寸消費性電子。MoneyDJ指出歷史客戶包含Fitbit、小米、Cisco、Sagemcom，且曾接獲美系醫療客戶與博弈機台客戶訂單；上述客戶名單為第三方資料，未能於公司官方最新文件逐一驗證。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025至2028年展望以利基型小尺寸顯示、客製化PMOLED、多角化新應用與營運結構改善為主。2025年營運面臨大環境走弱、關稅因素與需求不如預期等壓力；MoneyDJ於2025年12月報導，總經理葉文欽表示公司已透過庫存管理與組織運作穩定營運，並加速開發新產品應用，期待2026年新應用逐步發酵、帶動營收回升。公司多角化方向包含四大領域：以顯示器為核心的光電事業、新興綠能、延伸光學與顯示技術的大健康產業，以及雲端服務。顯示器事業策略包含鎖定高階應用與系統整合、提高附加價值、布局近眼顯示與穿透式顯示系統，並切入醫療、智慧交通等應用。中長期成長動能可能來自穿戴裝置、醫療與大健康、車用與工控利基市場、透明或可撓式OLED、近眼顯示、智慧交通與低量多樣客製化需求。主要風險包括：PMOLED市場規模相對小、AMOLED與TFT-LCD在部分應用替代、客戶集中或終端產品週期波動、原材料與驅動IC成本、匯率與關稅、良率與新產品放量不確定性、海外競爭者價格壓力，以及公司近年獲利波動與2025年前三季虧損擴大。2027至2028年展望缺乏公司明確量化指引，本段屬依公司公開策略與產業趨勢之推估。
Supply Chain
- 驅動IC供應商（未揭露） PMOLED模組主要原料之一為驅動IC；公司與第三方資料未揭露具名直接供應商。台灣有顯示驅動IC上市櫃公司，但本研究未確認其與智晶之直接供應關係。
- 發光材料供應商（未揭露） PMOLED主要原料之一為OLED發光材料；公開資料僅揭露材料類別，未揭露具名供應商。
- 玻璃基板與蓋板玻璃供應商（未揭露） PMOLED主要原料包含玻璃基板與蓋板玻璃；公開資料未揭露直接供應商，產業常見供應商多為國際玻璃材料廠。
- 製程設備與檢測設備供應商（未揭露） OLED模組製造需蒸鍍、封裝、切割、檢測等設備；本次搜尋未取得智晶直接設備供應商名單。
- Fitbit MoneyDJ指出智晶曾打入Fitbit智慧手環供應鏈；Fitbit已由Google收購，非台股掛牌公司。
- 小米集團 MoneyDJ列為智晶主要客戶之一；小米為香港上市公司，非台股掛牌。
- Cisco MoneyDJ列為智晶主要客戶之一；Cisco為美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
- Sagemcom MoneyDJ列為智晶主要客戶之一；Sagemcom為海外非台股公司。
- 醫療設備客戶（未具名） MoneyDJ指出智晶接獲美系醫療客戶訂單；客戶未具名，無法確認是否上市。
- 博弈機台客戶（未具名） MoneyDJ指出智晶接獲博弈機台客戶訂單；客戶未具名，無法確認是否上市。
Competitors
- 錸寶 8104 台灣上櫃PMOLED與OLED相關廠商，MoneyDJ列為智晶主要競爭者之一。
- 維信諾 中國OLED顯示廠，A股上市公司，非台股掛牌；MoneyDJ列為主要競爭者之一。
- Pioneer 日本廠商，MoneyDJ列為主要競爭者之一；非台股掛牌。
- Futaba 日本廠商，MoneyDJ列為主要競爭者之一；非台股掛牌。
- 友達 2409 台灣上市面板廠，並非PMOLED純同業，但在中小尺寸顯示、車用、工控等終端應用上具間接競爭關係。
- 群創 3481 台灣上市面板廠，並非PMOLED純同業，但在顯示面板終端市場具間接競爭關係。
- 彩晶 6116 台灣上市TFT-LCD面板廠，在中小尺寸與利基型顯示應用有間接競爭關係。
Sources（12）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.