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5538

東明-KY Iron & Steel As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 東明-KY to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 87Quality 64Growth 67Momentum 56Chips 66

Is 東明-KY a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 61th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.0%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 5th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 19th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 2.6% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 22.4%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.42
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 群益金鼎-大甲 holds 305 lots
  • sellers have 95 lots left, ~190 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -2% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 群益金鼎-大甲 has accumulated 305 lots since the start (sold 6%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 65 lots, has sold 49%, 33 left, ~12 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.58pp, mid holders -2, retail +0.16pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -63 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
群益金鼎-大甲中國信託-高雄兆豐-高雄元大-東泰花旗環球富邦-高雄
Distributing
凱基-台北摩根大通台灣摩根士丹利美商高盛凱基-站前大昌-樹林
Desks
own scale
元大-台中中港台新-同大新加坡商瑞銀康和-台中
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 群益金鼎-大甲 +305
    sold 6%· still adding
  • 中國信託-高雄 +207
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 兆豐-高雄 +155
    sold 18%
  • 元大-東泰 +130
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 花旗環球 +88
    sold 9%· still adding
  • 富邦-高雄 +73
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 凱基-台北 33 left
    sold 49%· ~12 sessions to clear
  • 摩根大通 21 left
    sold 65%· ~13 sessions to clear
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 38 left
    sold 32%· ~190 sessions to clear
  • 美商高盛 28 left
    sold 36%· paused recently
  • 凱基-站前 8 left
    sold 50%· paused recently
  • 大昌-樹林 3 left
    sold 70%· paused recently

Desks

  • 元大-台中中港 -775
    unclassified
  • 台新-同大 -108
    unclassified
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -89
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 康和-台中 -73
    unclassified
Still selling 95 lots ~190 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +482 absorbed / -47 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 22.37%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

40 historical occurrences (since 2014-03-10)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 56.4%, Sample 39, Median +3.39%, Excess +1.09%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%；60-day: Win 64.1%, Sample 39, Median +6.07%, Excess +3.04%, Beat mkt rate 59%；120-day: Win 60.5%, Sample 38, Median +9.78%, Excess +5.86%, Beat mkt rate 63.2%

120 days after: historical avg +8.95%

20-day +2.02%
60-day +5.42%
120-day +8.95%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
56.4%
64.1%
60.5%
Sample
39
39
38
Median
+3.39%
+6.07%
+9.78%
Excess
+1.09%
+3.04%
+5.86%
Beat mkt rate
66.7%
59%
63.2%

Over 38 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 8.95%, beat the market by 5.86 pts; win rate 60.5%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here623+0.6% -10.7% 33.1% -9.2%
20-40 325+6.8% +2.6% 51.1% -16%
40-60 463+21.9% +29% 61.1% -2.3%
60-80 312+14.1% +8.2% 73.4% -11.1%
80-100 306-1.1% -1.2% 44.8% -24.1%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 9.29, at the 18.8th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Now
+5.9%
Win rate 53.6% Excess +3.1%
455d
+14.3%
Win rate 80.3% Excess +1%
426d
-5%
Win rate 26.5% Excess -11.6%
238d
60-day momentum down
+1.4%
Win rate 33.3% Excess -7.7%
421d
+1.5%
Win rate 40.2% Excess -17.7%
323d
+1.2%
Win rate 34.8% Excess -9%
247d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 455 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 5.9%, win rate 53.6%, beat the market by 3.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

18 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.24%, win rate 52.9%, beating the market by -1.41 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

41 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.02%, win rate 61.5%, beating the market by -2.64 pts on average.

What does 東明-KY do? Company profile

鋼鐵工業；不銹鋼緊固件與不銹鋼線材 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

5538 對應東明-KY，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司全名為開曼東明控股股份有限公司，英文名 TONG MING ENTERPRISE CO., LTD.，註冊於英屬開曼群島；主要營運主體為浙江東明不銹鋼制品股份有限公司及浙江東和不銹鋼材料有限公司。公司係為回台上市架構重組而於 2009 年 11 月設立，浙江東明營運歷史可追溯至 1995 年成立；股票於 2013-12-16 在台灣證券交易所上市。公司在台聯絡地址為高雄市岡山區中山北路 140 號 15 樓，主要營運基地在中國浙江嘉興。董事長為蔡清東，總經理為蔡弘泉，發言人為柯文玲。依台灣證交所 2026-06-17 資料，實收資本額為新台幣 2,012,033,330 元；依 2025 年報，截至 2026-04-18 已發行普通股 201,203,333 股。員工規模依年報為 2025 年 1,197 人，2026-03-31 為 1,205 人。前十大股東（2026-04-18）包含 CAPITALAND LIMITED 18.30%、Richard International Co., Ltd 11.93%、Tong One Holdings Limited 11.93%、蔡易庭 11.49%、蔡明地 9.51%、中國信託商業銀行受託保管東聯公司投資專戶 5.66%、NEW STAR LIMITED 5.17%、MEGA SUN LIMITED 5.17%、中國信託商業銀行託管高譽有限公司投資專戶 3.70%、宗徽投資股份有限公司 3.06%。2025 年董事會決議擬配發 2025 年度現金股利每股新台幣 1.5 元。

Business

東明-KY主要從事不銹鋼緊固件及不銹鋼線材之開發、生產、銷售與特殊緊固件國際貿易。2025 年營收結構為不銹鋼緊固件新台幣 84.45 億元、占 66.32%；不銹鋼線材 21.99 億元、占 17.27%；策略性產品 17.89 億元、占 14.05%；其他 3.00 億元、占 2.36%；合計營收 127.33 億元。核心產品包括螺絲、螺帽、牙條等不銹鋼緊固件，以及供小螺絲、廚房用品、網帶、再伸線、彈簧等下游製造使用的不銹鋼線材。商業模式兼具製造與通路整合：內銷透過自有分公司、區域倉、特約經銷商與電商平台服務中國市場；外銷透過岡山東穎、Tong Win、日本 FastLink、泰國 Tong Ming Fasteners 等貿易或銷售子公司拓展海外。2025 年區域營收為中國 69.30%、美洲 13.70%、亞洲 12.02%、其他 4.98%。公司自稱浙江東明在中國 300 系標準不銹鋼緊固件內銷市場銷量約 6.8 萬噸、估計市占三成以上；公司亦強調具 15.2 萬平方公尺生產基地、年產 12 萬噸不銹鋼緊固件及線材產品、可生產近 2 萬項產品，並以 ERP、WMS、自動倉儲、華東/華南/華北區域倉與線上平台提升供貨效率。終端應用涵蓋建築、機械、能源、通信、食品、交通、海運、家電、消費性電子、汽車、航空、核電、水力發電、太陽能發電、工具機械及五金製造等。2025 年主要營業成果：合併營收 127.33 億元、年增 1.51%；EPS 3.02 元；營業主體全年出貨量 12.53 萬噸、年增 6.74%；其中緊固件內銷 7.24 萬噸、占營業主體出貨量 58%，緊固件外銷 1.99 萬噸、占 16%，線材 3.3 萬噸、占 26%。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年公司在原料價格波動與全球總體不確定環境下，透過調整定價策略與通路配置維持營收小幅成長；外銷受美國關稅與客戶庫存調整影響，緊固件外銷出貨年減 3.49%，但線材出貨年增 15%、國際貿易子公司營收占比由 2024 年 12% 升至 2025 年 14%。2026 年公司營運計畫重點為：緊固件內銷延續成熟銷售模式、彈性定價與供應鏈金融服務以穩固市場份額；緊固件外銷以充足產能、產品結構優化、市場化定價及服務體系拓展海外市場，且泰國子公司已投入營運，有助拓展泰國內銷市場；線材業務則以守住市場占有率、產能升級、提高出貨效率與嚴控成本為主。2026 年 1 至 5 月累計營收據市場資料約 56.19 億元、年增 8.16%，2026Q1 EPS 約 1.12 元，顯示截至 2026-06-17 前的短期營運仍有年增動能。2027 至 2028 年屬推估：成長動能主要來自中國基礎建設與城鎮化、建築/汽車/石化/新能源/光伏等場景對耐腐蝕高品質緊固件的需求提升、海外據點與電商 2.0 布局、泰國與亞太通路擴張、產品朝高強度耐熱螺栓、光伏雙頭牙棒一次性搓牙技術、線材偏心振動緊線工藝等高值化或效率提升方向發展。主要風險包括中國經濟成長放緩、同業價格競爭、鎳與不銹鋼盤元價格波動、匯率、客戶庫存循環、美國 232 鋼鋁關稅及其他貿易壁壘、地緣政治與全球投資減緩造成需求不明朗；若原料價格下跌過快，可能引發客戶遞延採購與毛利壓力，若價格上漲過快則可能壓縮下游客戶需求。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 永興特種材料科技股份有限公司（永興） 年報列為不銹鋼盤元（螺絲線）上游供應商之一；中國 A 股上市公司，非台股掛牌，stock_id 依規範設為 null。
  • 瑞浦科技 年報列為不銹鋼盤元上游供應商之一；非台股上市櫃公司或無法確認台股掛牌，stock_id 設為 null。
  • 申源 年報列為不銹鋼盤元上游供應商之一；非台股上市櫃公司或無法確認台股掛牌，stock_id 設為 null。
  • 福建吳航 年報列為不銹鋼盤元上游供應商之一；非台股上市櫃公司，stock_id 設為 null。
  • 青山控股 年報列為不銹鋼盤元上游供應商之一；中國大型不銹鋼與鎳產業集團，未於台股掛牌，stock_id 設為 null。
  • 煙臺華新 年報列為不銹鋼盤元上游供應商之一；非台股上市櫃公司或無法確認台股掛牌，stock_id 設為 null。
  • 東和工業 年報揭露為主要進貨供應商之一，2025 年占進貨淨額 7.31%，採購主因為公司接單出口至美國之緊固件產品；董事長蔡清東、蔡弘泉於該公司擔任董事，屬其他關係人；非台股掛牌，stock_id 設為 null。
  • 正曜／正侑、秉峰、金諳／標俐、孝東、益鼎、國聯、三聯、金辰、漢邦、皖軒 年報列為周邊成型機與線材設備相關供應商或產業關係企業；多為設備商或非台股掛牌公司，stock_id 設為 null。
Downstream
  • 中國境內經銷商與特約經銷商 公司以中國內銷市場為主，年報與法說資料提及全中國緊固件經銷商總數估計超過 1 萬家，公司透過自有分公司、區域倉、電商平台、通路商與經銷商服務下游；多非台股掛牌。
  • 國外通路商與國外重點客戶 緊固件外銷與策略性產品透過國外通路商、重點客戶及岡山東穎、Tong Win、日本 FastLink、泰國 Tong Ming Fasteners 等子公司服務海外市場；年報未揭露具名客戶。
  • 營建、消費性電子、運輸、五金與生產工廠 年報列為不銹鋼緊固件與線材下游應用及客戶類型；為產業類別而非單一台股公司。
  • 機械、通信、交通、能源、建築、食品、汽車、航空航太、石化、光伏與公共事業應用客戶 公司產品為工業基礎零部件，下游應用廣泛；具名客戶多未揭露，年報主要以產業與匿名客戶呈現。

Competitors

  • 滕州騰達 年報列為不銹鋼緊固件及線材中游同業；中國公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 浙江奧展 年報列為不銹鋼緊固件及線材中游同業；中國公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 工品一號 年報列為不銹鋼緊固件同業；中國公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 蘇州鑫旺 年報列為線材同業；中國公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 江陽祥瑞 年報列為線材同業；中國公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 春雨工廠股份有限公司 2012 台股上市螺絲、螺帽、線材與鋼鐵製品公司；屬台灣扣件/鋼鐵製品可比同業，但非年報列名的中國不銹鋼直接競爭者。
  • 世豐螺絲股份有限公司 2065 台股上櫃螺絲與扣件製造商；屬台灣扣件產業可比公司。
  • 恒耀國際股份有限公司 8349 台股上櫃扣件、汽車與工業用零件供應商；屬台灣扣件產業可比公司。
  • 聚亨企業股份有限公司 2022 台股上市鋼線、螺絲及鋼鐵線材相關公司；屬上游/同業可比，產品結構與東明-KY不完全相同。
Sources（10）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.