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5601
strong quality, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 台聯櫃 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~95% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.5%.
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Valuation is high.PE is in the 85th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 44th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 1.7% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -9% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 元大-永春 has accumulated 424 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 12 lots, has sold 25%, 9 left, ~45 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.16pp, mid holders -1, retail +0.92pp — little change.
Accumulating
- 元大-永春 +424
- 富邦-岡山 +203
- 華南永昌-基隆 +28
- 富邦-敦南 +22
- 凱基-基隆 +15
- 凱基-市政 +15
Distributing
- 凱基-台北 9 left
- 華南永昌 1 left
- 臺銀-金山 1 left
Desks
- 富邦-仁愛 -315
- 群益金鼎-忠孝 -188
- 臺銀 -88
- 統一-新台中 -62
Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 227 | -0.8% | -1% | 33% | +4.2% |
| 20-40 | 183 | +6.4% | +6.5% | 98.4% | -18.7% |
| 40-60 You are here | 573 | +5.4% | +3.5% | 71.4% | -12.6% |
| 60-80 | 951 | +0.3% | -2.6% | 33.9% | -19.2% |
| 80-100 | 1042 | +7.2% | +4.5% | 63.6% | -9.4% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 78.1, at the 44.0th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum down”: across 360 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 4.3%, win rate 70.6%, lagged the market by 7.3%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
24 times historically; 60-day forward avg -4.06%, win rate 25%, beating the market by -5.78 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
5 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.06%, win rate 100%, beating the market by -3.66 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
What does 台聯櫃 do? Company profile
Overview
5601 對應證券為上櫃普通股「台聯櫃」，公司全名為臺聯貨櫃通運股份有限公司，英文簡稱 TACT，英文全名 TAIWAN ALLIED CONTAINER TERMINAL CORP.。公司成立於 1973-07-16，公開發行日為 1991-02-12，上櫃日為 1994-11-24，總部位於基隆市七堵區堵南里三合街二號。統一編號 00701122，董事長為簡東捷，總經理為許哲雄，發言人為賴允昌。實收資本額為新台幣 648,000,000 元，已發行普通股數 64,800,000 股，每股面額新台幣 10 元，無特別股。簽證會計師事務所為安永聯合會計師事務所，股務代理為群益金鼎證券。Yahoo 股市資料顯示董監持股比例約 31.03%；富邦證券 eBrokerDJ 董監持股資料顯示，115/05 董事長簡東捷持股約 721 千股、董事簡游美惠約 708 千股等，但完整前十大股東名單未能由可抓取來源完整確認。Goodinfo 顯示 2025 年全體員工平均年薪約 100.5 萬元，但未揭露完整員工人數。公司持有交通部特許營業許可證櫃字第005號，營業項目包括貨櫃與貨物裝櫃、拆櫃、裝車、卸車、貨櫃集中與分散、貨櫃保養維護整修、聯鎖倉庫及其他貨櫃集散站相關業務。
Business
公司屬於小型貨櫃集散站與倉儲租賃營運商，核心商業模式為以基隆七堵場站土地、倉庫、空地與貨櫃作業設備，收取貨櫃集散、吊卸、空櫃管理、車架停放、貨櫃維修、倉庫出租與場地出租收入。依 114 年報摘要，114 年度產品組合為「貨櫃集散站作業業務」40,243.27 千元、占 43%，「倉庫、空地出租收入業務」53,345.73 千元、占 57%；全年營業收入 93,589 千元，較 113 年 91,925 千元增加 1.81%。貨櫃集散站業務包括經營空櫃集散站、空重櫃板車架停放、服務貨主與拖車公司空重櫃吊卸、服務船公司貨櫃修復。114 年度主要船公司為建華海運、太古船務，全年進站空櫃 27,513 TEU、出站空櫃 27,314 TEU；空重櫃板車架停放至 114 年底總計 440 位。租賃業務方面，114 年度倉庫及場地出租予 36 家公司，全年租金收入等約 53,515 千元。公司官網列示作業與設施包括門式跨載機作業、櫃場內移櫃作業、管制作業、35 噸四階堆疊作業、冷凍櫃作業，以及重型吊櫃機械、拖車頭、小堆高機、五階空櫃起重機、標準倉庫、門式跨載機、控制塔臺、冷凍貨櫃等。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025 至 2028 年展望偏穩健但缺乏高成長能見度。成長動能主要來自倉庫與空地出租、車架停放、空櫃場自營效率，以及基隆南港捷運案、基隆河谷廊帶與北五堵新鎮園區等周邊土地開發政策若定案後，可能提升土地資源活化價值。公司 115 年營業計畫包含維持倉庫出租並視勞動成本與稅賦調整租金、整頓板車車架區通道地面與標線照明、提升船公司或攬貨公司服務、評估長期有利可圖行業或合作以最佳化土地利用、配合基隆南港捷運與基隆河谷廊帶產業再造開發案。產業面，年報摘要引用貨櫃航運市場 114 至 119 年複合年成長率約 3.11%，顯示全球貨櫃物流仍有溫和成長；但基隆港貨櫃集散站經營業被公司評估為營運漸趨式微，貨櫃船大型化、航線與港口集中化可能持續壓縮傳統小型場站需求。主要風險包括基隆港貨櫃量與航線變化、客戶集中度與船公司合作變動、土地開發政策時程不確定、設備與場地老化需歲修維護、工資與營運成本上升、碳排與環保法規增加成本、關稅與地緣政治造成製造業與貿易活動波動。2026 至 2028 年若無重大土地活化或新業務，營收結構預期仍以租賃收入為主、本業貨櫃作業為輔，屬低成長高資產型營運。
Supply Chain
- 臺灣港務股份有限公司／基隆港相關港務體系 非台股上市櫃公司；貨櫃集散站營運高度依賴基隆港腹地、港區貨櫃流向、港務政策與周邊交通建設。
- 吊櫃機械、堆高機、門式跨載機與場站設備供應商 未揭露具名供應商；公司營運需重型吊櫃機械、拖車頭、小堆高機、空櫃起重機、冷凍櫃與管制設備等。
- 場地、道路、倉庫與照明維護工程承包商 未揭露具名供應商；114 年度有場地通道路面混凝土整修工程，設備與主要通道歲修會影響成本。
- 建華海運 韓國海運業者，非台股上市櫃；114 年報摘要列為公司空櫃集散站業務主要船公司之一。
- 太古船務 外商船務公司，非台股上市櫃；114 年報摘要列為公司空櫃集散站業務主要船公司之一。
- 拖車公司與貨主 未揭露具名名單；公司提供空、重櫃吊卸、車架停放與相關場站服務。
- 倉庫及場地承租公司 未揭露具名名單；114 年度公司倉庫及場地出租予 36 家公司，為最大營收來源。
Competitors
- 中櫃 2613 台股上市公司，經營貨櫃集散、倉儲及相關物流業務，與台聯櫃在貨櫃場、倉儲與場地利用上具可比性。
- 榮運 2607 台股上市公司，長榮集團物流與貨櫃運輸相關公司，業務涵蓋貨櫃運輸、倉儲、物流等，為大型同業。
- 志信 2611 台股上市公司，經營貨櫃拖運、倉儲、運輸與物流服務，與台聯櫃下游客戶及物流服務鏈部分重疊。
- 遠雄港 5607 台股上櫃公司，經營自由貿易港區、航空貨運倉儲與物流園區，雖偏航空貨運與港區物流，但在倉儲物流與土地資產營運上具競爭與比較意義。
- 陸海 5603 台股上櫃公司，屬航運物流相關業，業務含運輸與倉儲物流，與台聯櫃同屬航運物流服務類股。
- 山隆 2616 台股上市公司，經營運輸、倉儲與油品等業務，與貨櫃及物流運輸供應鏈部分重疊。
Sources（14）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.